Investor who likes software

Joined March 2021
178 Photos and videos
FYI you can just get Fable on StreamEast
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Of all the software value traps out there, I’m not really tempted by ADBE (losing share to everyone) and INTU (QB is legitimately an AI loser). WDAY, CRM, or even HUBS are better ways to bottom fish in app software.
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No supply constrained industry has ever had a price war
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Every single thing about the AI buildout mirrors a commodity super cycle
WSJ reports that OpenAI is weighing major cuts to token pricing as competition in the AI market intensifies.
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So Pakistan is launching missiles at Afghanistan, can someone remind me who I’m rooting for here? Is this like a “we can still get homefield advantage through a tie breaker” situation?
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Will there be one more violent blow off top in semiconductors before the 50% drawdown?
72% Yes
28% No
32 votes • Final results
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The worst thing about the semiconductor bull market is all the people who think they sound smart by using industry acronyms
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Software is still not cheap on Price to Tangible Book Value
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Selling my stocks to buy Knicks game 4 tickets, a store of value that’s hedged against inflation and only goes up.
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Do you know what companies are getting really good at optimizing token cost for their customers? Legacy software companies.
Your margin is my opportunity: AI version… The biggest surprise of 2026 is that the capability gap between the best open-weight/source models and the best closed models has narrowed much faster than the pricing gap. The pricing gap remains enormous while the capability gap is quite narrow. What does this means in practice? For a company consuming 1 billion input tokens and 1 billion output tokens per month: GPT-5.5 Pro: ~$105,000 Claude Opus 4.8: ~$30,000 DeepSeek V4 Pro: ~$5,220 DeepSeek R1: ~$2,740 I asked ChatGPT what it thought about this and it answered as follows: “If I were building a company today, the economic frontier would look roughly like: DeepSeek V4 Pro / R1 for high-volume inference. Claude Opus for premium agent workflows where reliability matters. GPT-5.5 Pro only for workloads where its incremental capability demonstrably produces enough business value to justify a 20–40× token premium.” Most CEOs have no idea that, instead of this nuanced approach, their teams are running amok internally by picking the most expensive models in most cases and burning through massive budgets with zero governance, audit ability and control. As control planes like our Software Factory become more standard, you can expect the run rate revenue growth of the frontier labs to go down meaningfully and the revenues of the open models to skyrocket. Why? Because we can implement the nuanced approach above and be agnostic to model - instead focusing on customer intent, model task and cost management among other things.
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The big winner here is the new Bloomberg indices which will immediately include SPCX
SHOCKER: S&P 500 will NOT fast track SpaceX. So it will take AT LEAST a year, probably more. This is wild considering every other big boy index is 5-15 days. This could create significant return dispersion bt 'passive' indexes. Choose wisely.
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Investors love to blame management after they mistake a bad business for a good business.
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I just found out that Robert Half is publicly traded, why are you wasting your time shorting software when actual 0s trade in the market?
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Imagine being the first hardware analyst to realize that every knowledge worker was going to demand at least two monitors, immediately doubling the TAM
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Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving guy
*SHORT SELLER ANDREW LEFT FOUND GUILTY OF SECURITIES FRAUD RIP Citron
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Had to raid the public equity piggy bank before the other frontier labs get to it
ALPHABET ANNOUNCES PROPOSED $80 BILLION EQUITY CAPITAL RAISE TO EXPAND AI INFRASTRUCTURE AND COMPUTE
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This is what happens when you let tech debt go unaddressed
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MrRatable retweeted
You just won a 2-week, all-expenses-paid vacation. But there’s a catch: you have to stay within one region the whole time. What region are you picking?
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Did companies performatively “use the internet” in 1999? Were employees told to spend as much time online as possible?
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You guys have no idea how much supply a couple trillion dollars can get you
Mark Zuckerberg tells shareholders that a Meta cloud computing business is "definitely on the table" if it overspends on data centers and has excess capacity (@jonathanvanian / CNBC) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
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