God is in the details.

Joined April 2007
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Your margin is my opportunity: AI version… The biggest surprise of 2026 is that the capability gap between the best open-weight/source models and the best closed models has narrowed much faster than the pricing gap. The pricing gap remains enormous while the capability gap is quite narrow. What does this means in practice? For a company consuming 1 billion input tokens and 1 billion output tokens per month: GPT-5.5 Pro: ~$105,000 Claude Opus 4.8: ~$30,000 DeepSeek V4 Pro: ~$5,220 DeepSeek R1: ~$2,740 I asked ChatGPT what it thought about this and it answered as follows: “If I were building a company today, the economic frontier would look roughly like: DeepSeek V4 Pro / R1 for high-volume inference. Claude Opus for premium agent workflows where reliability matters. GPT-5.5 Pro only for workloads where its incremental capability demonstrably produces enough business value to justify a 20–40× token premium.” Most CEOs have no idea that, instead of this nuanced approach, their teams are running amok internally by picking the most expensive models in most cases and burning through massive budgets with zero governance, audit ability and control. As control planes like our Software Factory become more standard, you can expect the run rate revenue growth of the frontier labs to go down meaningfully and the revenues of the open models to skyrocket. Why? Because we can implement the nuanced approach above and be agnostic to model - instead focusing on customer intent, model task and cost management among other things.
Quite a week for open-source AI. Especially American open-source. Nemotron 3 Ultra is the most important release in quite some time. And some really cool RL and fine-tuning work from Harvey.
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Remember that 40% of protested data centers stop. This has been the trend for the past four years. This portends poorly for supply.
Report: opponents blocked or delayed at least 75 US data center projects in Q1 2026 worth ~$130B; data center opposition groups doubled to 833 across 49 states (@akarl_smith / NBC News) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
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Game theory from here is super interesting: Original Mags (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) now have a serious non-zero opportunity to tank the frontier labs. Go to the government, kneecap the labs’ motion of putting the latest models out in the wild, become the trusted gatekeeper between the labs and the public at large (including internationally) by having the labs go through their clouds (AWS, GCP, Azure) and implement strict KYC to seal the deal. The frontier labs should have seen this coming years ago and implemented a robust KYC for just this moment. The fact they didn’t is kind of concerning. Why did they not do it? Best guess is because it would have changed the run-rate revenues (downward) which would have then changed funding dynamics - lower valuations, more dilution, less secondary. A valuation reset may happen now anyways, except the labs may end up with less control and more restrictions at the end of it. At the same time, everyone is already clamoring about token prices of the old models from the labs anyways… This couldn’t be a better setup for open source and neoclouds. Big question is can they meet the moment? There are too few of them and their progress seems sporadic at best.
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If a Treasurer of a Fortune 1000 company kept all of their cash in one bank they’d be fired for incompetence. Similarly, if the leadership of a Fortune 1000 company bets the farm on only one frontier lab and their models you’re taking a lot of risk. This risk compounds as the labs’ intentions and public actions are bewildering and show them to be increasingly unpredictable. This is why every major enterprise needs a model agnostic “control plane”. Get the work done, increase the productivity, make more money, save costs, increase efficiency but do it with governance, auditability and control. Capabilities across all models are converging. Open source prices are, in some cases, 1/100th of the frontier labs. But governance, control, compliance and collaboration capabilities don’t exist unless you first focus on the right “control plane”. If you do not find such a “control plane”, you’re increasingly taking risk as the frontier labs become increasingly unpredictable. This is why 8090’s Software Factory is used this way in every major part of the economy including governments.
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Pod!!!!
LATE NIGHT DROP! 🚨 Big show. Core four are back. -- Anthropic's Fable Backlash -- Nationalizing AI, and the "Capitalist Cucks" -- Inflation Heats Up -- California’s Broken Election System (0:00) Besties are back! (0:19) Anthropic gets massive backlash over secret Fable nerfing and privacy concerns (29:16) The AI regulatory capture trap, pragmatic safety solutions (37:59) Nationalizing AI: Trump/Sanders, justifications, and AI's "Capitalist Cucks" (59:22) Liquidity recap: Best moments and takeaways (1:05:39) Inflation heats up: CPI and PPI see 3 year highs (1:12:27) California's loose election laws creating integrity doubts
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completely lost in the news cycle of the day, but this is a great feat and jimmy and jeff housenbold (ceo of beast industries) deserves a lot of credit. jimmy has well more than 1B followers across all platforms and they are building disney 2.0
MrBeast hits 500M subscribers on YouTube, a record for the platform (@kaylcobb / The Wrap) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
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Standing up a next-gen data center is no joke. While it may seem like the big boys will backstop you - they really won’t. And they have big expectations based on their history of execution - ie they are good at this so they expect the same from others. If you can’t live up to their expectations, the liquidated damages clauses, alone, can bankrupt a neoscalers. Then you can also loose your IG wrapper which can do it as well. Net/net, lots of upside if you get it right but this isn’t for the faint of heart.
So Crusoe did not pause the 1.8GW datacenter development at the request of a hyperscaler after all “In reality, Crusoe is being pushed aside, people familiar with the situation said. The company tried and failed to lock in customers including Alphabet Inc.’s Google at the site, the people said. The talks with Google stalled after the technology giant raised concerns about the costs and timetable under Crusoe’s watch, some of the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.“ $BKH is continuing the project forward with $GOOG, and without Crusoe as a development partner
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Very true. Try ours here: 8090.ai
Pro tip: off-B/S services teams are still working for the Labs and just building model lock-in undercover. Ensure your orchestration layer is truly model agnostic!
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Well, it was good while it lasted I guess…
Our Anthropic bill is about to jump from $400K → $1.4M/yr. Not because usage exploded, but because we're about to cross 150 seats. Past 150 seats you're forced into Enterprise tier. Seats stop including any usage, every token bills at standard API rates. At our current run rate that's 3.5x overnight. Unfiltered thoughts on AI spend: 1. We should spend tokens to grow as aggressively as possible. But most people (me included) aren't conscious of what they're spending. 2. Visibility comes first. People see their personal number and they're shocked. I accidentally spent $4,000 in 3 days in Claude Code. 3. For engineering the spend is clearly worth it. Pay for the best model, it saves more than it costs. 4. For a lot of other roles it's questionable. Apps nobody uses, skills someone already built. No ROI. 5. Spend limits are coming. We already require approval for more tokens on our support team. The era of token-maxxing is coming to an end.
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Chamath Palihapitiya retweeted
Jonathan was one of the first to run Software Factory in production. Now the engineering teams at @meet_tie have replaced vendors worth nearly $5B in combined market cap with systems they built internally. Renting software made sense when building it took 18 months. That math is over.
Replying to @meet_tie
@meet_tie engineering teams have replaced nearly $5B worth of market cap vendors in one shot with internal systems built using @8090_Factory It’s an unbelievable platform and a real looking glass into the future of agent-driven engineering. @TheOneAndArjun @chamath
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Chamath Palihapitiya retweeted
LIQUIDITY: PA Senators John Fetterman and Dave McCormick join The Besties -- Bipartisanship in 2026 -- Why the Senate is the least popular it's ever been, and the filibuster question -- Insane amount of money in US politics -- Datacenters, AI, and PA's blue collar boom -- Graham Platner, and how extremism wins primaries (0:00) PA Senators Fetterman and McCormick join the Besties (0:33) Bipartisanship in 2026, rejecting extremism (6:37) All-time unpopularity in the Senate, the filibuster question, tribalism (13:33) Fixing wealth concentration in the US (19:51) Graham Platner, why extremism wins primaries, and what it means for the future (28:12) How AI and energy are playing a part in PA's blue collar boom, dark money funding misinformation (41:05) Insane level of money in politics, fixing the broken system @SenFettermanPA @SenMcCormickPA Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (@EYnews) - EY helps private equity firms turn market insight into action, navigating complexity and unlocking new paths to growth and long-term value. ey.com/en_us/industries/priv… NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. nyse.com Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight. plaud.ai
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same…
i look forward to our chinese brothers liberating the knowledge from within fable-5 and selling it to me at 5% the cost & 2x the speed
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This is awesome! It’s great to see 8090’s Software Factory being used to unbundle incumbent ISVs! $5B deprecated, $5T to go… Thanks for sharing @jonathankopnick.
Replying to @meet_tie
@meet_tie engineering teams have replaced nearly $5B worth of market cap vendors in one shot with internal systems built using @8090_Factory It’s an unbelievable platform and a real looking glass into the future of agent-driven engineering. @TheOneAndArjun @chamath
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At this point every CEO should be asking what their strategy is to avoid model lock-in. If it isn’t clear what Anthropic is doing, it is: - build something amazing - decide who gets to use it after you prompt it if the prompt falls into areas they deem unacceptable by their sole standard To be clear this is completely above board and legal. It’s just an idiotic risk for corporate users to bear especially as the coding models become equivalent. The business continuity risk will become more obvious as companies accidentally trip over Anthropic’s ToS and have to decide if they will subsume their business viability to them by doubling down on Anthropic models or find open source (and, btw, much cheaper) alternatives where they are in control. As stated previously, get ready to be inundated with the term “control plane” which is the natural solution to this problem. Shameless plug - this is what 8090’s been building as we expected this moment to arrive… If you’d like to learn more: 8090.ai
BREAKING NEWS: Anthropic's latest model will NOT help you if it thinks your ML research/ML engineering is interesting, and/or will secretly degrade its IQ so that the average engineer won't notice. We are already seeing Anthropic's latest model's moderation filters our GPU inference research and programming 😭
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Chamath Palihapitiya retweeted
LIQUIDITY: Bill Maris on Broken VC Math and Google's Secret Weapon Against OpenAI and Anthropic (0:00) Bill Maris joins the Besties! (0:33) Four critical lessons from a career in technology (5:58) Building Google Ventures with data and machine learning (9:51) Why small VC funds beat big ones on average (14:36) OpenAI's valuation problem and the coming AI price war (19:09) AI is at the "Atari Stage": what comes next? (25:23) VC's broken incentives and the future of deep tech Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (@EYnews) - Agentic AI is introducing a new investment discipline. As AI shifts to consumption-based models, EY connects spend to enterprise value. ey.com/en_us/insights/ai/age… NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. nyse.com Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight. plaud.ai
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This was a great session.
LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals -- Copper as the next AI bottleneck -- Investing in the commodity supercycle -- Dollar debasement -- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure (0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals (0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks (5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals (8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000 (12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win (13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis (19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (@EYnews) - Liquidity, growth, and what’s next for organizations were front and center at the Summit. EY helps turn liquidity challenges into sustainable value. ey.com/en_us/services/strate… NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. nyse.com Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight. plaud.ai
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Another week, another set of improvements to Software Factory. Try it here: 8090.ai
Software Factory - Version 0.40.0 Major Features • Navigation & Layout Redesign: A new left-side navigation consolidates project overview, modules, settings, and user controls. Breadcrumbs provide clear document context and project and organization selectors are always visible for faster access. • Drift Bot: Automatically reviews pull requests against Software Factory requirements and blueprints to identify implementation drift. Findings are posted directly in PR comments and can run automatically on configured branches. Edit your codebase connection to enable it. • Project Copying: Create new projects from existing ones by copying documentation, agent skills, codebase connections, and configuration. Ideal for reusable templates and standardized project setups. Find it in Settings > Project Details. Minor Features • Applied Suggestions View: Agent edit cards are visually aligned with the document diff view. Click to navigate to the exact change in the document. • Code Search Pagination: Grep, glob, and directory tools paginate globally across multiple repositories with exact totals. • Self-Assignment Notifications: Suppressed when users or agents assign on their own behalf.
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Ok, this is a good sign!! Learn more about 8090’s Software Factory and sign up for our demo.
Software Factory Demo filled up a week early, and we didn't want to turn anyone away. So we're running it again the next day. Wednesday June 17, 1pm PST. Same session. Grab a seat: bit.ly/4vGqF7s
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The empirical scorecard on AI thus far is very positive: 1) increases US GDP by 25-50% 2) is expanding our collective knowledge of science, math and physics 3) is up-leveling labor Related to (3) above, this announcement from Meta is really amazing. If they can take a US median income worker ($50k), train them and then place them into a $100k job it’s transformational. If done at scale, across all of the planned AI infrastructure buildout in America, this is upwards of 1MM jobs. Doubling the median income of 1MM Americans is nothing short of an economic miracle. Let’s hope more companies follow suit and this becomes a defacto part of America’s industrial policy.
Today @Meta is proud to launch America’s Workforce Academy with our partners. This program will provide paid training, certification and a job for Americans of all backgrounds to be part of building American leadership in the world. Because we believe the Future is for Everyone. wsj.com/opinion/high-tech-se…
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