As expected, the CSU forecast has trended down for the Atlantic season thanks to the strengthening El Niño.

16 point lead for Spurs. Right where the Knicks want 'em. It's over tonight.

Kuch probably has no idea. He's busy working for the 2026-27 season.

As I was expecting, the CSU forecast trended to less ATL activity for this season. I would probably still take the under on this.

The window for tropical cyclone formation in September is going to be very narrow thanks the El Niño. The most favorable areas are going to be on the western side of the basin. That could mean surf but also could be a disaster - it only takes one.

Clip of the explosive Blue Origin 'anomaly' last night. Pretty wild.

That's my GFS. The GFS is spinning up a low but this is looking very unrealistic. This particular model over develops these broad lows - it's a known weakness. It's a good indicator, but for specifics very unreliable this far out.

No surprises here. Only surprise is chance for below avg season - would expect that to be higher. For strong El Niños we typically see ACE values around 2-3x below average.

Man AI is some powerful shit. Took the janky looking euro image and made this in about 30 seconds. Much better and more focused on our area of interest.

Pretty much what you'd expect in the ATL during the tropical season given the upcoming strong El Niño.

Love Jim Nantz but this might be the most cringe-worthy thing I've heard - ‘Just like Rocky, Aaron Rai wears two gloves’. Lame

ACE values for strong El Niño years for June/July suggest we look to the Gulf/SE US region as the most likely areas for activity.

Tinkering with some of our new data interrogation tools. Nothing surprising here - this is what we would expect in a strong EN especially since August surf in FL is typically a month that is purely dictated by the tropics.

It's coming.

Latest Euro forecast for El Niño - no matter how you slice it, all signs are pointing to one of the strongest events ever. This will result in a diminished Atlantic hurricane season.

Check this out for a really cool look at Snapper Rocks and what makes it work. I promise you will not be disappointed. youtube.com/watch?v=ifJ3-_mL…

A pet peeve of mine: “But remember, Andrew happened in an El Niño!” No it did not. El Niño had ended before August Aug 24, 1992. See the Nino 3.4 box… it had cooled already. Below: see the 3-month July-Aug-Sept anomaly… it was .3 and dropping. So yes, there was an El Niño in 1992. No, there was not any longer an El Niño in August of 1992. Its impacts were all but done. Mets: please keep this image in your back pocket for this summer’s inevitable: “But Andrew happened in El Niño” Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk!

It's quite clear that we are headed to an El Niño state for the upcoming summer/fall season. The question is how strong will it get.

Man the refs in this Lightning game are absolutely fucking horrible. #GoBolts

This AM surf was firing although yesterday was better. Guess the spot.