On IQ, fertility rates and emerging markets (and what makes Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan unique) 🇰🇿🇺🇿👇 It is shocking to me that so many economists and investors simply say 'high fertility rate = good', with zero regard for median IQ. I hope they are just being politically correct but I fear a good % of them genuinely do not understand. Median IQ represents the human potential of a country, which is genetically capped. As the East Asia and Eastern Europe growth stories show us - human potential is even more important than natural resource wealth. Many resource rich but IQ poor LatAm and African countries end up being poor and dysfunctional. If you have a highly fertile country that is low IQ and especially with the development of robotics & AI - it is a net negative. Your country has an increasing amount of economically unproductive people to take care of. As a foreign investor, you should be careful parking your wealth in such countries as you become the easy target in desperate times. Looking at the entire world - there is currently only one country with a high population replacement rate (TFR 3>) that has a median IQ of 90 - that being #Kazakhstan. Clinically speaking (using the Pearson Wechsler scale) - 90 is the minimum to qualify for 'moderate' IQ. #Uzbekistan's TFR is higher at 3.4 with a median IQ of ~86 which is 'low average' on the Wechsler scale. No exaggeration - ALL other high fertility countries are in the 70-79 range (borderline intellectual functioning), 60-69 range (extremely low) or 50-59 range (mild intellectual disability). Whilst IQ is mostly determined by genetics, there is an environmental factor too (likely 5-10 points). Considering the ethnic make up of Kazakhs and Uzbeks, IMO it is reasonable to assume that with better education, diet and healthcare - they can reach low 90s median IQ (near Balkans and Southern Europe). Reasons: - Estimated genetic composition of Uzbekistan: Iranic (50%), Turkic Steppe (35%) and East Asian / Mongol (15%) - Estimated genetic composition of Kazakhstan: Iranic (20%), Turkic Steppe (45%) and East Asian / Mongol (35%) - Thus the genetics are not bad: Iranic countries have a median IQ of 85, Turkic Steppe at 89 and East Asian / Mongol at 98. The Kazakh and Uzbek diets are also much more protein rich than other frontier markets. The Soviets left behind a healthcare and education system that is decent. Additional notes: - Kazakhstan's current median IQ (Richard Lynn, 2019) is skewed upwards due to ethnic Russians (~100 IQ) making up 15% of the country. However KZ's current fertility growth is mainly driven by ethnic Kazakhs. But with a ~5% annual GDP growth and ~10% annual average salary growth, IMO they can make up for it with environmental factor improvements. - Uzbekistan is much more ethnically homogeneous with under 4% ethnic Russians. Thus their existing median IQ figure is more accurate than Kazakhstan's. - Unlike Southern Europe & Balkans, these two 'stan' countries do not operate on liberal democracy - which is more optimal for governing a low to mid 90s IQ society. As we see in Southern Europe, low to mid 90s IQ population combined with liberal democracy leads to socialism, high debt and demographic replacement to fund pension ponzis. Summarizing the combination of fundamental factors that makes Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan one of a kind: - Moderate median IQ - High fertility rate - Natural resource wealth - Geopolitical neutrality - Healthy level of spirituality via Islam but without radical elements - A mode of governance that works for them - Moderate Islam as a spiritual and cultural anchor, with a government deeply committed to secularism I am not aware of any other emerging markets that offer this combination. I will explore the key risks and limitations of 'stan countries' in future posts. 🇺🇸 Related: my thesis on why the US demographic future is even worse than Europe and China 👉 x.com/i/grok/share/d4ede18e2…