Joined December 2015
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 12
Gold is creeping further and further away from its north star (global liquidity), and is probably worth a look at these levels.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Another Hindenburg Omen was triggered yesterday, bringing the total to 5 in the past month.
Since 1970, a cluster of 5 H.O's has happened 19 other times.
It also brings the total number of H.O signals to 232.
ALT S&P 500 chart highlighting periods when 5 Hindenburg Omens were triggered within one month. The top panel shows the S&P 500 from 1970 to 2026 on a logarithmic scale, with red markers indicating the 19 historical occurrences plus the current signal. The bottom panel displays the monthly count of Hindenburg Omens, with a dashed line at 5. A table summarizes forward S&P 500 performance since 2010 (12 occurrences). Median returns were positive after 2 days ( 0.2%), 3 days ( 0.3%), 1 month ( 0.5%), 3 months ( 1.0%), 6 months ( 0.7%), 9 months ( 0.4%), and 12 months ( 5.8%). However, all completed occurrences experienced a 3-month and 12-month drawdown, with median peak-to-trough declines of 7.8% and 19.8%, respectively. Source: Bluekurtic Market Insights.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 11
So you can use the 5th/6th/7th best LLMs, getting 80-85% of the top guys' performance, but at an 85-95% discount in price?
You know what we call that? A commodity...
exactly what happened with LCD TVs, OLEDs, solar panels, electric cars, phones, etc
good luck with your AI IPOs!
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 10
Feels like the turn is in on Euro Aussie.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months.
You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.
In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 8
Historically it has not been a great signal when Cash-Rich mega-cap companies sell stock for capex buildouts.
Snagged this chart from the @MacroOps Dirty Dozen.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Bonds are now the most correlated with stocks on a short-term basis since 1999 BofA Merrill
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 7
I'm not surprised the oil market could handle 100 days of the Strait being closed without significant disruption.
I am very surprised the oil market would remain so complacent after 100 days and with zero visibility on reopening.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 7
Here's my random stat for the weekend as everyone wonders what happens next.
Since 1995, there have been six calendar years where the S&P 500 grew earnings by >20% (95, 03, 04, 10, 18, and 21).
All but 2018 ended w/ double digit returns. Of course, the Fed was hiking in 18.
2026 EPS tracking for 23ish% growth.
If the Fed actually hikes*, the 2018 comp sticks out (early year correction/late-year mini bear).
*I don't expect the Fed to hike just remove easing bias.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 6
When someone answers "What do you think triggered the big stock market selloff Friday?"
They will come up with a large list of narratives, none of which mention positioning: People were choking on calls on Thursday, and purging all those calls on Friday.
ex: $SMH (pink) went from top right on this chart on Thursday (calls priced higher than puts in the 90% %'ile), to puts and calls being equally valued (i.e. center of chart).
Then look at how expensive QQQ options were INTO the Friday vs SPY (Y axis). Tech heavy Qs were massively overvalued related to SPY as everyone over-FOMO'd tech.
Positioning needed a reset.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 5
Institutional Research miltonberg.com
This chart was included in this morning's institutional report. The (S&P Technology Select Sector SPDR) is displaying topping characteristics. It has gapped lower this morning, creating an Island Reversal pattern..
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 4
This market is still semis vs funding shorts.
Short interest in non-AI market segments started hooking higher in mid-2024.
You really see it on a day like today (SOXX -2% vs SP EW .78%).
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MACRO OPS retweeted
NDR's pattern matching tool shows that the NASDAQ has closely tracked the dotcom analog and is closer to 1998 than 2000. It still suggests near-term volatility ahead.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
SPX trend channel with post-1998 analog. Risk management, anyone?
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Jun 4
You people are not prepared for the amount of finding out that's about to happen
Jun 4
Mercuria head of freight says 10% of global ships could be forced to stop next month due to fuel shortages
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MACRO OPS retweeted
The cyclical bull market that started on October 13, 2022, has now turned 45 months, well past the median age of 30 months.
The 118% return places this cyclical bull in the top 4 of strongest bulls since 1960. It remains quite narrow in terms of breadth, making for an interesting comparison to the 169% bull market from October 1998 to March 2000.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Today’s semiconductor melt-up obviously resembles post-1998 behavior (upper clip). ROC is well short of the 76-week reading at the March 2000 top (middle clip), but well ahead based on the 61-week interval since April 2025 (lower clip). Trailing stops, anyone?
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MACRO OPS retweeted
This is a good chart because it really captures the current environment.
The percent of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index over the last two months is at its third-lowest reading since 1972. Small sample size, but both cases saw a change in leadership that lasted several months shortly after the extremes.
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Fueled by gains in software stocks, the percentage of S&P 500 Technology stocks outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 63 sessions has reached its highest level since December 2023.
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