The market of 4-sigma assets

GAME 5 - LET’S GO! Tonight, we’re shining orange and blue with the @NYKNICKS' logo rotating in the mast. See the lights live: esbo.nyc/ecx Text CONNECT to 274-16 for real-time lighting alerts.

Brazilian football is pure art. 🙌⚽ #BRAZIL

🇧🇷🟢🟡 Brazil has officially taken over Times Square! 👏

LA brought the noise. USA brought the show 🇺🇸

Timely inflation peaked two months ago... and now the lagging YoY rate is declining @augurinfinity

Space, the new frontier

The US Misery Index is at a multi-year high of 8.5. But inflation is backward-looking (of course), while the unemployment rate is a snapshot. Using forward inflation of 2.759%, the forward Misery Index is actually just 7.06 @yardeni

$236 BN in AI investment grade debt has been issued YTD, 357% increase YoY

The IPO day

The Hormuz recovery

Historic moment for markets and the economy --

S&P 500 SENTIMENT Coming into today, inverse ETF volume had hit 42% of spec total. Without a broader negative catalyst, this is where pullbacks historically stop.

The Tech bifurcation

Our second meeting went a little smoother. Huge congrats to my new friend @AlvaradoJose15 and the @nyknicks on their historic comeback. Don't ever count NYC out. One more to go. Let's Go Knicks!

Rising Treasury yields are now the biggest threat to the equity market: The 3-month correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 is down to -0.62, the lowest in at least 15 years. This means that when Treasury yields rise, stock prices fall, and when yields fall, stocks rise. By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, this correlation never crossed -0.50, making the current reading the most extreme negative relationship in decades. Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, yields and equity prices moved in the same direction, supported by strong economic growth and earnings expectations. Currently, rising yields reflect surging inflation fears rather than growth optimism, weighing on stock valuations rather than signaling economic strength. Keep watching the bond market.

It is a great time to be a portfolio manager

the 12mth annualized surge in PPI

Why oil prices remain "contained"

"The next wave of structural risk is dealers shifting meaningfully short gamma at the same time we see forced selling from CTAs" @t1alpha

CPI 3-month annualized hit 8% today