Flat-Fee Fiduciary | Factor-Based Investing | Financial Planner | Dad of 4
Joined March 2012
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He buys stocks for their dividends I bet.
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Compounding interest can be miraculous. Over the last 50 years, US equity markets grew at not even twice the annualized rate of Intermediate Treasury Bonds.
But, that resulted in more than 11x more money at the end of the period.
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In April I wrote a blog post for the site about why I don’t use index funds. They are my second favorite choice though.
meredithwealth.com/post/avan…
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You heard it here first guys.
Jun 10
It’s going to be $100T over time
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A friend told me he heard a $30K investment in the SpaceX IPO would soon be worth $1M.
That $30K → $1M return would put the market cap at ~$58 trillion.
The entire U.S. stock market is ~$79 trillion.
Can SpaceX bring these investors back to Earth?
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“HE PREDICTED THE 2008 CRASH AND NOW HE’S CALLING FOR SOMETHING FAR WORSE”
He also predicted the crashes of 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2023, and 2025.
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I have received a few inquiries about the SpaceXit liquidity IPO. On one hand the whole thing is nuts. On the other hand every major index fund and Elon fanboy will buy at any price, and continue to hold based on lofty future expectations. So….
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My 4 year old needs to work on his timing then he’s a sure fire hall of famer.
May 28
A PARENT’S JOURNEY THROUGH YOUTH SPORTS:
Age 5: “He’s got a cannon.”
Age 6: “He’s the fastest kid out there. Coach said so.”
Age 7: “Rec ball isn’t challenging him anymore.”
Age 8: “We tried out for select. Obviously made it.”
Age 9: “$2,800 for the season. Plus uniforms. Plus tournaments. Plus hotels.”
Age 10: “Cooperstown is basically a family vacation, right?”
Age 11: “He needs a hitting guy. And a pitching guy. And probably a mental performance coach.”
Age 12: “I’m not a crazy sports parent. The OTHER parents are crazy.”
Age 13: “We changed schools. For academics. (And also baseball.)”
Age 14: “Showcases are a requirement at this age.”
Age 15: “Ya his ranking just ticked up. We’re cooking.”
Age 16: “He just needs to get seen by the right school.”
Age 17: “The D1 schools want him to walk on. He’ll earn a spot by sophomore year.”
Age 18: “Okay, D2 is actually really competitive.”
Age 19: “He’s redshirting. Strategic.”
Age 20: “He’s focusing on school now.”
Age 21: “You know what? He’s so much happier.”
Roughly 7% of high schoolers play in college.
About 1.5% of those get drafted.
Less than half of draftees ever play one day in the big leagues.
The odds of our kids going pro are somewhere between “struck by lightning” and “find a $100 in old shorts.”
I love youth sports (all my kids play a bunch of them) just keep a good perspective my friends. ✌️
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Vanguard has launched defined maturity corporate bond ETFs at an expense ratio of 0.08%, undercutting Ishares by 0.02%.
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On October 12th, 60 Minutes ran a segment with Andrew Ross Sorkin promoting his book "1929" and drawing parallels to the eve of the Great Depression.
Since that day, the global equity market is up 17.65% ($VT).
A reminder that financial media exists to sell attention, not to guide your portfolio.
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A 2.82% real yield on bonds is attractive. From 1900-2024 the average annualized real return on US bonds was 1.60%.
My 30 year money is still going to be in equities. The global real return on equities has been about 4.3% historically, 30 year TIPS have volatility similar to equities, and equities are more tax efficient.
Of course one of these asset classes is guaranteed and the other is not, why is why one of them has a higher expected return.
May 20
I mean, are we not backing up the truck on 2.82% REAL yield on a 30-year TIPS? Baffling how this continues to be one of the most hated asset classes in advisor portfolios...
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I think Eugene Fama once lost a bet, and as a consequence he had to be interviewed by Rick Santelli on CNBC.
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“Can’t do anything with 5 Greg, poorest rich guy in America. Too rich to work, too poor to retire” -Connor Roy
May 19
Kevin O'Leary says all you need is $5,000,000 to be secure for life
"The discipline is get $5 million and put it in T-bills and just look at it. Don't touch it because if poo poo hits the fan, you're still good"
"I roll a bunch of T-bills. That's my fuck you account and it always has been. I buy dinner with the interest"
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When diversifying value exposure, both momentum and high profitability can work as complements.
But the holdings tell a different story: momentum overlaps with value far more than profitability does.
And there's no telling if that overlap shows up at a good time or a bad one.
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I’m a 5’8” 37 year old who has never dunked a basketball. Time to dust off the Jimmy shoes I got in 2003 and make it happen before I’m 40.
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Dividends are like the "free" french fries at the bottom of the bag.
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Mark Meredith, CFP®️ retweeted
Folks seduced by the tax perks of tax-aware long/short strategies should read Schwab's addendum to its margin agreement for a cold shower.
The risks and costs they describe are not inherently bad, but investors and allocators need to know about them to...
• Know what they're buying
• Assess if they are well compensated
• Communicate effectively with clients
• Manage client (and their own) expectations
My latest blog is a write-up of the addendum.
Link in profile.
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