Haven't seen this setup since summer 2024. Worth paying attention to.
The Dispersion Index divided by the Implied Correlation Index just hit 3.95. The highest reading in nearly two years.
Last time it got this high, the S&P pulled back nearly 10% in the weeks that followed.
Top panel is the SPX. Middle panel is the ratio. Bottom panel shows the two components. DSPX (how differently stocks are expected to move) and COR3M (how much they're expected to move together).
COR3M is at 10.26, the lowest reading in years. Correlation between S&P names is in the basement. Classic stock picker's tape. The catch is that when correlation eventually snaps back up, the index has historically struggled.
Stack that on top of the macro setup. Bulk of earnings is behind us. A wall of macro data this week and next. And a brand new Fed Chair just stepped into the seat with his first FOMC three weeks out.
The market has been shrugging off macro lately. Just something to keep on the radar.