There is a lot of detail to go though here but the main takeaway for the Koala is Berg is a multi-decade ~140kt CuEq copper project with a 24-36% after-tax IRR and 2-3 yr payback assuming:
2Q 2026 costs
Prices somewhere between $4.75/lb and spot (~$6 /lb) on copper
In a consensus first world jurisdiction
With quotes provided by two First Nations groups relevant to Berg and the Premier of BC (who isn’t exactly considered Mr “I love mining”)
With an after-tax NAV of C$4.6-9.4 billion, today the market cap is <c$300mm
In the koala’s opinion, true NAV somewhere in the middle of that range (no major copper producer is being priced like it’s going below $5/lb)
If we double the share price to c$1.50 where the warrants are accelerated, it’s only ~c$650mm
So it’s a double just to get to 0.1x P/NAV
When looking at comparable projects, why shouldn’t this trade at 0.2-0.3x P/NAV?
Now you see why Surge Copper
$SURG.V has been the benchmark for every copper developer and producer in the eucalyptus tree for the past 13 months since the updated metallurgical work was released
Biggest mistake this year so far was not taking more of that February financing
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