It takes 15 years to make a good engineer.
Knowledge management systems needed severely in engineering. The whole industry is understaffed.
Timeline:
1) high school grads must choose engineering
2) 4-5 years college
3) 5 years as apprentice, then PE
4) 5 years working in the trade
15 years… and that’s if you’re good.
@ThaaatColin @BrianRoemmele
Engineering Wednesday
The other great replacement is upon us.
Companies did not adapt.
I am constantly looking and applying because I love making stuff and have no intention of ever retiring. After your CEO and CFO quit in the same week, you start to wonder if it is time to ramp things up. So my search is hitting a new tempo.
Here is what I am seeing that almost nobody is talking about.
So many companies thought their 40-year keystone employee was going to live forever and work forever at the same pay they gave him when he bought his house decades ago. They assumed if that person ever left, they would just slide in another loyal soul willing to do the same for the next 40 years.
That world is gone.
The new reality is brutal. Average job tenure in tech is now around 2.5 years. Even in more stable industries it is pushing 4 years at best. HR folks and managers tell me I am wrong here. Tell us how difficult it is getting.
The fact is the culture changed.
People move. Loyalty is no longer assumed on either side.
Technical Directors are in a special class. These are not just managers. They are the ones who direct. They carry deep business knowledge, technical mastery, financial understanding, customer relationships, regulatory insight, and the undocumented history that keeps everything running.
If they get it wrong, people can actually get hurt or die in the industries I work in. Regardless, directors are critical to the success of an organization.
Replacing that depth is incredibly hard.
In the past month I have had several interviews where the story is the same. A guy who was there 30, 40, even 55 years (this morning) is finally stepping out. The company suddenly realizes they have no real succession plan, no documentation, no automation, and no one who knows all the legacy systems, customers, and industry jargon the way he did. In some cases the offboarding retiree developed a great database...that nobody knows how to use.
One shock for companies is... They are not going to get another replacement for a 40-year guy at the pay they are offering. The technical skillset is obviously at the top end for there to be a replacement.
That era is over.
The reasonable answer is honest succession planning.
I have stepped into roles where my job was to archive everything the long-term person knew, automate what could be automated, write the SOPs, policies, and procedures that were never written, and then either train the next team or run the role while documenting it all.
That transition work is valuable.
It saves lives and protects institutional knowledge.
But most companies did not plan for this. They just assumed the old model would last forever.
People who started in the 70s and 80s expected to stay at one company for decades if they did good work. In engineering, especially in engineering - you see people stay a decade or two past retirement.
At no point in their life were they raised to think they would work for an employer that hires to retire. Even if you wanted to, I would still be working in the best job I ever had with Siemens- but the spinoffs, IPO, merger and PE song and dance has made that expectation delusional for employers.
After this, like many others I found myself in the 3 year spin as I was recruited by think tanks, tech developers, and others who might have had 5 year roadmaps but appetite for only a 3 year tech execution. Face it in 3 yrs everything you started on could be obsolete.
Because of this- today the average person expects to move. We would see that 30 yr keystone player but they were unlikely to move and unlikely to want to. Everyone else landed in a job ready to pull stakes because nothing was permanent anymore.
Companies expect the same from new hires- they should be disposable. Warm body in place - nothing kills innovation faster btw.
Both sides stopped investing in the long game.
This mismatch is creating real pain right now, especially in technical leadership roles.
We need to get much better at succession, documentation, and knowledge transfer. Especially since there is no indication that most companies are focusing on retention.
The days of one person carrying the entire system in their head for 40 years are ending. AI is not the answer either. AI will, with confidence, drive the bus off the cliff because data and reality are not the same.
The companies that figure this out and treat tribal knowledge as real institutional capital will have a massive advantage.
HR - ensure your manager understands the position they are filling isn't just that keystone employee, its the person that can make succession seamless.
The ones that do not will keep getting surprised when their keystone people walk out the door.
Question for folks willing to speak up:
Have you seen companies get caught flat-footed when long-term technical people finally retired?
Drop what you observed.