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20 Nov 2025
๐ ๐๐ฎ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง๐๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐
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๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐
The core financial risk is now global news - including a direct quote from our analysis!
Todayโs @WSJ takes a deep dive into Brazilโs $125 billion Tropical Forest Forever Facility, its plan to tap Wall Street to finance rainforest protection - and the growing concerns around its financial architecture.
๐ ๐๐ฆ ๐ช๐ฎ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ณ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ:
โ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐ด ๐ข ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ช๐ด๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ข ๐ฃ๐ถ๐ช๐ญ๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ด๐ฉ๐ข๐ฌ๐บ ๐ง๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ต๐ด ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ข ๐ด๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฅ 3 ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ค๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต โ๐ง๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ค๐ฉโ ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ๐จ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ-๐ฎ๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ด. ๐๐ช๐ต๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ฎ๐ข๐จ๐ช๐ค-๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ช๐ด๐ฆ, ๐ณ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฆ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ธ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐บ๐ช๐ฆ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ. ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฅ๐ด ๐ช๐ด ๐ด๐ต๐ข๐ฃ๐ญ๐ฆ, ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ค๐ฆ๐ด๐ด๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ ๐ง๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ - ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ข๐จ๐ฆ๐ฅ-๐ฎ๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ต๐ด.โ
This point is now being reported about in @FinancialTimes and @BILD, and echoed across UK's Climate Finance ThinkTank @BloombergNEF, multiple economists, and several insiders:
โก๏ธ There is no free arbitrage between AAA borrowing and BB-rated EM debt.
โก๏ธ The 3 percent spread is a standard risk premium, not a magic money tree.
โก๏ธ A 40-year leveraged carry trade is not a reliable way to fund global forest protection.
๐ง๐ท ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ฉ ๐จ๐ COP30 Brazil
But if we want permanent, trustworthy incentives for rainforest countries, we need stable concessional capital, not volatile market bets that collapse when spreads spike.
๐บ For deeper analysis, follow the [๐๏ธ TFFFโs Missing Billions] series, including recent discussions with BloombergNEF: lnkd.in/eGBENXNB
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19 Nov 2025
๐๏ธ๐ณ First Episode: The Deep Dive That TFFF Supporters Didnโt Want โ But Needed
I sit down with colleague, co-author and friend Professor Aidan Hollis to finally talk through all the core questions behind the TFFF:
youtube.com/watch?v=evfthz5sโฆ
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Max Alexander ๐๐๐ฑ retweeted
8 Nov 2025
@robinalexander_ รผber die โVagheitโ von Merz in Belรฉm.
Hinter dem Zรถgern steht indes die von @MattheyMaxAlex angestoรene TFFF-Debatte. Er hat offengelegt, dass die โArbitrageโ-Erzรคhlung in Wahrheit eine 40-jรคhrige Zins-/Carry-Wette ist. Top-รffentlichkeitsarbeit! ๐๐ซก
7 Nov 2025
Was hinter der auffรคlligen Vagheit des Kanzlers beim Klimaschutz steckt via @welt welt.de/politik/deutschland/โฆ
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8 Nov 2025
Die einfache Lรถsung? Stabile, langfristige Zahlungen mit Planungssicherheit, statt kuriose Zockerei an Finanzmรคrkten. Diesen Ansatz durfte ich auch in der Bild vorstellen: bild.de/leben-wissen/wissensโฆ
8 Nov 2025
Bundesregierung riskiert mit Unterstรผtzung fรผr den Tropical Forest Forever Fund #TFFF Glaubwรผrdigkeit internat. Klimafinanzierung. Statt stabile Mittel fรผr den Regenwald zu schaffen, setzt das Modell auf hochriskante Finanzmarktwetten mit Steuergeld.
1/ ๐งตtagesschau.de/ausland/amerikโฆ
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7 Nov 2025
๐๏ธ Iโm featured in @BILD today!
Under the headline โEveryone should be able to help save the rainforest with their own money โ and even make a profit. A great idea! Or is it?โ Germanyโs largest newspaper covers my economic critique of Brazilโs Tropical Forests Forever Facility (#TFFF) โ the new $125 billion rainforest fund being launched at COP30 in Belรฉm.
In the piece, I warn that behind the big promises lie major financial risks:
๐ธ leveraged bets on emerging-market bonds instead of stable funding,
๐ณ around $300 million per year in management and financial fees,
๐ซ and the risk that, in the next market downturn, itโs the rainforest that loses first.
Thank you so much, @MatthiasBieder, for making this possible.
Hereโs the article (no paywall):
๐ bild.de/leben-wissen/wissensโฆ
And for those who want to dive deeper: my full analysis and alternative proposal here ๐
๐ linkedin.com/pulse/fund-foreโฆ
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Max Alexander ๐๐๐ฑ retweeted
30 Oct 2025
Mein Hospitant @MattheyMaxAlex in der @FinancialTimes ๐. Sie werden so schnell groรโฆ๐ฅน
ft.com/content/5e84ac7f-31f2โฆ
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14 Oct 2025
๐ฉ๐ช Heute im Tagesspiegel Background:
โDie Bundesregierung sollte eine Beteiligung sehr kritisch รผberdenken.โ
๐ณ Das Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) verspricht Milliarden fรผr den Schutz der Regenwรคlder โ angeblich generiert โaus dem Nichtsโ durch Finanzmarktgewinne.
๐ธ Wie ich im Interview erklรคre, beruht diese Hoffnung jedoch auf einem fundamentalen Trugschluss: Die Zinsdifferenz zwischen Schwellen- und Industrielรคndern ist kein kostenloser Gewinn, sondern ein Risikoaufschlag. Wird sie โ wie im #TFFF โ fรผnffach gehebelt, drohen Milliardenverluste, noch bevor der Regenwald einen Cent sieht.
๐๏ธ รffentliche Gelder sollten verlรคsslich wirkungsorientierte Waldschutzprรคmien finanzieren โ nicht auf volatilen Mรคrkten spekulieren.
๐ Zum vollstรคndigen Interview (Tagesspiegel Background, von Thomas Krumenacker): [background.tagesspiegel.de/aโฆ]
๐๏ธDen "TFFFยดs Missing Billions" Newsletter abonnieren? linkedin.com/newsletters/737โฆ
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13 Oct 2025
Check out the latest article in my newsletter: โฏ๏ธ Itโs Not Blended Finance linkedin.com/pulse/its-blendโฆ via @LinkedIn
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30 Sep 2025
Unsere Analyse zum nรคchsten mรถglichen #Klimafinanzierungsskandal, der "Tropical Rainforest Forever Facility", wurde heute ausfรผhrlich im Tagesspiegel dargestelltt:
linkedin.com/.../from-financโฆ
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25 Sep 2025
Check out the latest article in my newsletter:
๐ From Financial Alchemy to Real Funding: The TFFF Quick Fix for COP30 linkedin.com/pulse/from-finaโฆ via @LinkedIn
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24 Sep 2025
Die @wiwo hat meine Kritik zum Brasilianischen #TropicalForestForever Facility #TFFF in ihrer heutigen Berichterstattung verรถffentlicht.
Der Artikel ist hier zu finden:
wiwo.de/.../regenwaldfonds-eโฆ
... per PM als .pdf! ๐ท
Fรผr weitere Informationen zur kommenden Weltklimakonferenz im Belem habe ich einen Newsletter gestartet - TFFFs Missing Billions: linkedin.com/newsletters/737โฆ
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24 Sep 2025
๐ณ Super happy to be covered by @ClimateHome in @SebastiรกnRodrรญguez latest piece.
One thing that isnโt yet clear in the reporting: if you treat the extra 3% yield on bonds from countries like Ecuador, Egypt or Brazil as a #RiskPremium, the whole #TropicalForestForeveFacility scheme collapses, because there is *NO* positive expected return.
It only โworksโ if you misinterpret that spread as aย free lunch. But that spread exists for a reason: it compensates for real risk.
That leaves the #TFFF withย no expected revenue for rainforestsย โ while using public funds to insure private investors against downshifts in what is essentially a zero-EV gamble.
๐ For deeper analysis and regular updates on the TFFF in the run-up toย COP30 Brazilย โ and on how to secure serious, reliable funding for rainforests โ subscribe to our newsletter:ย "TFFFโs Missing Billions": lnkd.in/eeuQSseP
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28 Aug 2025
๐จ New Publication available
Iโm very glad to share our recent article โ#TFFF: Brazil's rainforest fund is a high-risk gamble with taxpayers' moneyโ, first published in @TableBriefings.
Professor @aidanhollis and I argue that the proposed #TropicalForestForeverFacility (TFFF) risks turning scarce climate finance into a high-stakes, no return gamble rather than a reliable source of conservation funding.
The original article can be found here:
table.media/en/climate/opiniโฆ
Huge thanks to @TableBriefings for publishing it and helping to bring this debate into the policy spotlight ahead of hashtag#COP30 in hashtag#Belรฉm ๐ง๐ท.
#ClimateFinance is too scarce to be lost on risky financial engineering โ we need mechanisms that deliver real, measurable conservation results. ๐ณ๐ฐ
For more information about how Results-Based climate finance should be done, follow CLIMA: linkedin.com/company/1007850โฆ๐
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22 Sep 2025
Thank you so much for sharing this, @GFC_forests!
I just started a daily blog on TFFF on Linkedin that you can find here:
linkedin.com/newsletters/737โฆ
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22 Sep 2025
๐ณ BIG COP30 Brazil ANNOUNCEMENT โ AND WHY THE NUMBERS DO NOT ADD UP โผ๏ธ
Tomorrow at the @UN General Assembly, ๐ง๐ท is expected to announce the first sovereign investment in the #TropicalForestForeverFacility - #TFFF; its flagship climate-finance plan for #COP30 in Belรฉm. The fund aims to raise 125 billion USD, combining 25 billion in public guarantees with 100 billion in private capital, to pay countries annually for protecting rainforests.
It sounds like a #breakthrough. But behind the branding lies a major misconception.
As I note in @Tagesspiegel:
โThere are 25 billion dollars in public guarantees at stake. The fund has no demonstrable prospect of returns โ and in the worst case, these billions could evaporate even before the first payout year.โ
The idea of reliable, results-based forest payments is sound. But financing them through a leveraged bet on emerging market debt is not. A failed $25bn gamble would hurt not only rainforest protection, but also trust in international climate finance.
๐ย Tagesspiegel Background Article (German) @TspBackgroundEK: background.tagesspiegel.de/eโฆ
๐ Thanks to @cschaudwet and @sinanrecber for including this perspective!
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31 Aug 2025
We urgently need action against deforestation. The TFFF is NOT the right tool:
reddmonitor.substack.com/p/tโฆ
27 Aug 2025
Look how fast they can cut down the Amazon
They call this progress obliterating one of the lungs of the Earth
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