A GEFS member from last nights GFS run had 40°C across the UK for the 28th. Unlikely, especially given the long lead time, however perhaps a growing likelihood of a hot final few days to June beginning to emerge.

There’s a growing likelihood of a heatwave across much of Europe next week where temperatures could exceed >40°C. In terms of the UK, it’s less clear cut on whether we’ll be tapping into the hotter air to our south. Chart: @GJauseau

El Niño has been formally declared for 2026 by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Find out more in our latest blog metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/e…

Following the unprecedented global heat of 2023, 2024 and 2025 there really hasn't been a substantial return to "normal". With a developing super El Nino, I suspect the next 1-2 years are going to reveal just how far climate change has gone. Could be a real wake up call for some.

Got access to some lovely, lovely GSDM / AAM charts now (coming soon more widely). We saw a huge injection of westerly momentum throughout the second half of May thanks to a very strong and prolonged south American ve Mountain torque event coupled with continuous ve Frictional torque associated with MJO activity and on going WWB events throughout the Pacific tied to the developing strong El Nino. Westerly momentum has subsequently propogated poleward and this has helped to sustain or prolong the mid-Atlantic trough when previous expectations had been for a mid Atlantic or UK high, which fits with NWP modelling moving away from a more high pressure dominated outlook next week, had this data been available previously we probably would have seen this coming but alas we were flying partially blind at the time. AAM tendency has now fallen negative as the strong MT event has subsided and the MJO is weakening / becoming more incoherent, albeit total GLAAM is now in a very high and positive state. I mentioned before that -ve AAM tendency can "lock in" an unsettled pattern and that does appear to be the case here. The GWO has recently done a high orbit through phase 5-6-7 and into 8 (the above chart not overly illustrative but can't post the proper chart at this time), a sure sign of a massive momentum injection. AAM tendency probably wont be negative for very long with a further developing WWB in the mid-Pacific, the MJO likely to re-emerge into the western Pacific albeit high forecast uncertainty here. If this emergence does come to fruition it would suggest a further injection of ve momentum into the atmosphere late June / early July, stated previous the expectation of a further strong rise in AAM tendency through the first part of July and early forecast indications continue to support this. The outcome? Finally, a real emerging signal of high pressure developing across the UK or to the east, that signal for an Atlantic trough still there with this path however the low is more likely to be positioned further south either over Biscay or displaced further west, potentially acting as a bit of a "heat pump" for the UK and western Europe. Lots to monitor..

Summer is off to a blinding start! ☔️

WED 10 JUNE 26 Widespread heavy showers are likely again on Wednesday, some sporadic lightning possible within the more intense cells.

FastNet, a Machine Learning Weather Prediction (MLWP) model developed with @turinginst combines machine learning with physics-based modelling. It is unlocking new forecasting capability, improving prediction of challenging features like daily temperature cycles and enabling earlier insight for heatwave decisions.

TUE 09 JUNE 26 Widespread heavy showers will develop across the UK on Tuesday, particularly across northern England and southern Scotland, a few of these may produce some sporadic lightning.

Global sea surface temperatures are preliminary the warmest ever recorded for the time of year. With the development of a likely "super El Nino" it seems probable that we'll see unprecedented global sea surface & temperature anomalies in the next 1-2 years.

SECOND HALF OF JUNE A planetary wave 5 pattern is beginning to emerge on the ECMWF monthly models. This is characterised by a very slow-moving, nearly static wave configuration across the Northern Hemisphere. Because these patterns tend to be highly persistent and prone to repeating, there is a heightened potential for extreme heatwaves developing beneath strong heat domes. The expectation of a cooler, more unsettled first half of June has largely come to fruition although the anticipated mid-Atlantic ridge has failed to materialise. This appears to be largely due to a stronger influence from the MJO in Phase 8 than was originally expected. Earlier forecasts suggested a quicker decay into a weak or incoherent signal, but the persistence of Phase 8 forcing has prevented high pressure from retrogressing into the mid-Atlantic. Instead, high pressure is now more likely to build across the UK or into western and central Europe, rather than to the west. Essentially the broader pattern expected for June has shifted eastwards by a few thousand miles. So, what does this mean going forward? The second half of June is now favoured to become more settled, with the potential for some notably warm or hot spells. The GWO is expected to move back towards Niño attractor phases which indicates a rise in AAM after a (small) drop off in tendency, this rising again from a higher base state than the previous rise. Rising AAM = greater likelihood of settled or hot weather, factor in the likely wave 5 hemispherical pattern and the potential for extreme heatwaves across Europe & perhaps the UK is heightened vs normal. This will also further anchor the development of a very strong El Nino. SUMMARY: There is a growing likelihood of high pressure building over or to the east of the UK with low pressure out in the Atlantic, this brings the potential for settled or hot weather, particularly across parts of Europe but perhaps the UK too, i.e the potential for hot weather during the second half of June is growing.

Scattered heavy & possibly thundery showers tomorrow, particularly across central & northern counties. Probably enough for a LOW risk convective outlook, will review later this afternoon ⚡️

Keeping a close eye on mid-second half of June. As tweeted about a few weeks ago, high pressure is likely to build and this *could* bring about another spell of hot weather depending on its orientation.

We've been beavering away again. Here's whats new: - MJO (with forecast out to 15 days) - Live Monthly data has been refreshed and is now the Statistics dashboard with more stats. We'll be releasing our frontend marketing and documentation site soon with more information on how everything works. If you have any questions or feedback, please get in touch. Check it out at datapoint.meteomaps.com

A textbook satellite view today, showing the distinctive cloud swirl around the area of low pressure moving across the UK 🌧️

Yellow Met Office wind warning issued for unusually strong winds for the time of year.

Near-stationary supercell thunderstorm over Swanton NE on Friday evening 🌩️

It really is a sad state of affairs when a Tweet like this from the Met Office is bombarded with homophobic and transphobic comments. This reaction is exactly why we need to continue to recognise these things, I would compare these vile, self loafing and deeply troubled people to pond scum but unfortunately that would be doing a disservice to said scum.

An estimated 22,596 km² of the UK exceeded the previous May record of 32.8ºC, based on HadUK-Grid provisional data released today, with a peak temperature of 35.12ºC. By comparison, the July 2022 heatwave had an estimated 28,658 km² exceed the old record of 38.7ºC.