I'll drop some alpha (a lot of Polymarket OGs are probably gonna hate me for this). On the US-Iran nuclear deal market: If the US and Iran sign an MOU that states Iran agrees not to develop nuclear weapons, it should resolve to Yes , even if both sides are still saying there haven’t been any formal nuclear discussions yet. polymarket.com/event/us-iran…

The World Cup is coming, and even if you’re not a sports trader, expect significant opportunities to appear thanks to the massive liquidity spike. Stay sharp and keep your eyes wide open. polymarket.com/event/will-ne…

Another market conflict on Polymarket. This time they didn’t archive it so I was able to trade out but still scared after all the fiasco's of last times. Users had been asking for a couple of days to get proper clarification so we could avoid exactly this kind of spectacle. Nobody gave a fuck. Hey Polymarket you’re asleep at the wheel. Btw, this market is sitting at $45M. polymarket.com/event/microst… @williamlegate @shayne_coplan

Polymarket has disappointed me yet again and I’m now genuinely afraid to trade larger sizes on the platform.After losing $30k this month on the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire market because of an “archive market error,” I got hit with almost the exact same situation today. I was actively trading the “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by…?” market when a sudden clarification flipped it from 80% Yes / 20% No to 30% Yes / 70% No in one move. Cost me another ~$20k.Look, nobody is saying markets shouldn’t be clarified. But until recently we at least had proper pre-clarifications. This feels increasingly sloppy and reactive. It really seems like Polymarket has become surprisingly unprofessional lately. Not a good look when people are putting serious money on the line. Clarifications are so inconcistent, not just the content but how they are made, there should be an SOP

Today I want to talk about a bond that went bad…Yesterday evening, several X accounts started claiming that Iran had issued a NOTAM and closed its airspace. By morning, the market was sitting at 98 and a ton of people were bonding it for that quick 1-2% gain.Later in the day, Iran’s aviation authority came out and dismissed the claim. The market flipped hard. Some bonders got wrecked and lost big money.Look, I still believe bonding is great and you can make solid profits with it, but you have to be extra careful. Use proper money management and don’t hesitate to sell at the first sign of trouble. polymarket.com/event/iran-cl…

Congratulations to @mrVassil for winning big on Polymarket in the Eurovision market!This should be a lesson to everyone who automatically assumes any big win must be the result of insider information. You really can win big , you just have to spot the value where it actually is. polymarket.com/event/eurovis…

With the Polymarket airdrop feeling closer than ever, while everyone is laser-focused on farming and maximizing their allocation, I’d like to actually talk about the $POLY token itself.I’m extremely bullish on $POLY. If the team executes well, I genuinely believe it has what it takes to become a top 10 crypto by market cap ,maybe even top 5. So what should the token actually be used for?In my opinion it should be: -The native gas token for the Polymarket chain (especially now that they’re building their own L2 called POLY) -Staked for significantly lower fees -Replace UMA entirely for market resolution voting ,with proper rewards for correct votes and real penalties/cuts for bad ones (unlike UMA), but only if it’s truly decentralized -A governance token What are your thoughts? How would you design $POLY utility and tokenomics? polymarket.com/?r=MisTKy

Yesterday I took my biggest loss on Polymarket,around $30k. What hurts most isn’t the money, but that the majority of it was caused by Polymarket.The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market got disputed over the humanitarian pause rule. The Easter truce went No (as expected), so this one should have too. They later clarified Yes, which I could live with...but then suddenly pulled the entire market while people were still actively trading, literally seconds after my order filled.That decision alone turned a $5-10k loss into $30k. After this, I’m seriously questioning whether Polymarket is still safe to trade on. @shayne_coplan @williamlegate @mustafap0ly @0xdanzu

I have managed to enter polymarket discord this is there annoucement: All Russia x Ukraine ceasefire markets have been temporarily archived due to a technical issue. All markets will remain archived until the previously scheduled clarification has been issued in order to protect users.

Anybody knows what happened to the Russia x Ukraine market ?

I want to warn you about this market. The U.S. and Iran are currently negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that would give both sides 30 days to finalize a full agreement. If the MOU explicitly states that the war has ended and establishes an indefinite ceasefire, this market will almost certainly resolve to Yes , even if the final comprehensive agreement is not yet completed or signed. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ir…

Polymarket seems to have successfully fixed the nonce exploit (the one that allowed fake orders). Huge congratulations to the team. Well done! They’ve also announced upcoming improvements to the UI and plans to squash all remaining bugs. It looks like they’re clearly moving in the right direction. Keep it up! @mustafap0ly @0xdanzu

Lately, a few people have asked me whether I use any third-party software or terminals while trading on Polymarket.The answer is simple: I place all my trades directly through Polymarket’s native interface. Their GUI is genuinely excellent , clean, intuitive, and well thoughtout (even though it is full of bugs).That said, for everything else like: data collection, tracking, alerts, and deeper market analysis,I rely on Parity and Betmoar. Both are extremely advanced platforms with fantastic teams behind them. You’d be amazed at how much value you can get start using them. @betmoardotfun @PredictParity

In recent months, Polymarket has stopped adding many types of geopolitical markets due to regulatory pressures and media backlash. I hope that at some point they can move past this and become more resilient to such challenges.A prediction market on the potential restart of conflict involving Iran would provide incredibly valuable insights. It would help large companies assess their liabilities and risks, support commodity traders in their decision-making, and even give the average person considering a vacation in Dubai a clearer picture of regional stability. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ir…

Polymarket should be ashamed of their latest update. I'm usually a big supporter of their work and think users complain too much about them... but this upgrade is embarrassing. They didn't fix the nonce exploit at all, instead, they just rewarded scammers with $1M in liquidity rewards. Great job, team @williamlegate @Polymarket @shayne_coplan

This bond does not seem so safe anymore today... polymarket.com/event/trump-o…

Parity is one of the best softs out there to trade on polymarket

Every trade has a counterparty on Polymarket. Now you can see exactly who they are.