My take away from Powell's last presser are: - He is very obviously concerned about the threat to Fed independence from the current administration. He gave lame excuses otherwise as to why he was staying on, but the subtext was obvious. - There is a bias shift taking place on the FOMC that Warsh won't be able to overcome. The committee is shifting toward considering hikes rather than cuts so as of this meeting it would be fair to say the bias has now left easing and is squarely neutral. Powell dropped clues that if Hormuz stays closed for much longer than hikes will be on the way. - The Fed is concerned about stagflation. He made a purpose to multiple times mention the inflationary effects of rising oil and the tariffs. He also made a purpose of highlighting specifically multiple times that gas prices going up reduces available disposable income and as a result he said it WILL impact GDP. Anyone calling this meeting/presser a "nothingburger" has no idea what they are talking about or aren't adept at understanding Fedspeak. This was a warning shot to Trump and Warsh that the committee will not be cutting any time soon and they will resist any attempts of outside entities to force cuts or anything else that threatens Fed independence. Rates are staying higher for longer.

Oh fun

There is a 0% chance the Fed does this, so get it out of your heads zoomer kids that started trading with lunch money 5 days ago. Reading the Fed’s intentions and understanding fedspeak and central banking policy is a difficult niche skill, and I promise you guys you don’t have it. This isn’t reading flow, this isn’t reading charts, it’s arcane at times and requires hours of something most of you don’t know how to do, reading material that doesn’t have pictures.

You have got to be kidding me, that’s 9:30am New York time, the same day as the Fed.

The GOP is running a larger federal deficit than the pandemic year when we printed $7 trillion It’s no surprise that stocks are up The currency is fake

Of course.

Jeez, the gambling is out of control

So we’ve immediately started weekend betting on $SPCX, yeah this is going to end well

Go figure, the day I decide to buy premium in Claude.

That was a very interesting close for $SPY as it seems that we are risk on going into Monday but there are some caution signs. The daily kicked out a doji that reclaimed the EMA 8 and 21, however it rejected the test of the 10 and 20DMA which are currently getting a death cross. The RSI and Stochastic on every timeframe other than the 1H are supportive of upside movement. Looking at the weekly it look like it kicked out a long legged doji with a bottoming tail, however the candle is solid green on the hollow candles (exhaustion topping signal) , these are very rare and only occurred 7 other times since 2020, 6 of which resulted in a pullback the following week. The oscillators are also looking a bit overheated and beginning to roll over across the board. Gamma across all exp has built up to just into positive territory and there are 3 levels > 1BLN (742/743/750) and no levels for puts where net gex exceeds -1BLN. Based on the central bank tail risks from the BOJ and FOMC next week combined with the clear exhaustion signals, juxtaposed with the risk on sentiment into the weekend, it seems to me that the likely path for SPY next week is Monday we see a run at 750, if we can't make it there then as long as there are no grenades out of the BOJ Monday night, then we should hit it by Tuesday. FOMC on Wednesday is likely where the wheels come off. At 750 the market will be looking for an excuse to cool off and FOMC meetings have consistently been trend shifting inflection points. The new chair and dot plot are likely to introduce just that excuse. From there I see us selling off into Quarterly OpEx where we will try to bottom. Best guess is it takes a run down toward the JPM collar. So I still tactically bullish, but that clock is running out of time fast.

Looks like a bull pennant may have formed on the intraday timeframe. Apex is exactly at today's close so I would not be shocked if $SPY continues to go nowhere into the close.

I do not like how $SPY looks so stretched on the intraday timeframes. This feels like a rug pull setup to coincide with the IPO going live. It's not unprecedented, the same thing happened when META went live.

The most hilarious outcome would be if everything dumps when $SPCX goes live.

Indicated to open in 8 minutes.... 38 minutes ago

I was expecting a bit more of a push down this morning to create enough energy to rip everything when the $SPCX IPO goes live. It seems to me like the market will be spinning it's wheels in place today

Rips appear to be being sold this morning. I'm not liking what I'm seeing and I think everyone and their mother expecting a rally today is going to keep us suppressed.

Same plan as yesterday for $SPY below support gets us to 734 which is a buying opportunity, and I think we get to at least the pre market highs of 743 but 750 is a put entry. 0dte GEX has 750 as a big level so we could get there today.

Shocker

Has anyone bothered to check how much money, if any, he still has in that ticker?

TRUMP CANCELLED THE WAR RIGHT AT $SPY SUPPORT LEVEL.