Good ol merinos

Urea at the Gulf now below pre-war levels. There are people in the industry who should be tarred and feathered in the public square.

Excuse my shitous video but this captures the essence I’m in the sprayer ahead of the autonomous sowing tractor. 2 machines operating with one operator. It’s great when the pieces fit together. Had a successful sowing with Ornata last paddock.

RT @mike_castle2: More record (lows) in hard red winter #wheat country. Both Colorado (8%) & Nebraska (5%) sitting at their worst G/E ratin…

Not bad

20 mm of rain any time now would be good

Agricultural businesses in the northern Ag region of WA are under serious threat. In my experience, label rates of registered baits are not enough to control a population that has gone exponential. Recent inspections of baited paddocks show significant removal of planted seeds despite recent baiting after seeding - in fine weather. Growers will need to apply baits more than once, which is costly. The common sense approach would be to have registered mouse baiting products that have a rate range on the label, where higher rates can be used for higher pressure. Emergency permits required asap. @APVMA @GRDCWest @theGRDC

This is bad

Our grandparents who fought in previous wars wars would be turning in their graves what a shit country we have become. I am so worried for our grandchildren’s future Spineless politicians on both sides have let us down

What a Good Friday

Easter canola less fuel when it’s dry

BREAKING: The world spent fifty years and hundreds of billions of dollars building Strategic Petroleum Reserves so that no geopolitical shock could starve civilization of energy. Nobody built the equivalent for fertilizer. That is the most expensive oversight in the history of modern statecraft, and you are about to pay for it at the grocery store. The Strait of Hormuz does not merely carry 20% of global oil. UNCTAD estimates roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through it. The Fertilizer Institute estimates that conflict-exposed exporters account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and nearly half of global sulfur trade. Since February 28, daily ship transits have collapsed by 97%. Here is what almost nobody understands about why this is not "just another commodity spike." It was not the missiles that closed the strait. It was the insurance. Multiple P&I clubs cancelled war-risk extensions for the Gulf after 26 months of Red Sea losses had already depleted their Solvency II capital buffers. War-risk premiums surged from 0.25% to as high as 5% of hull value per transit. A urea cargo cannot absorb that. The economics of fertilizer shipping through Hormuz became impossible before a single mine needed to detonate. The Trump administration announced a $20 billion sovereign-backed reinsurance facility with Chubb as lead underwriter. There is no confirmed public evidence that a single fertilizer vessel has used it. Insurance pays for financial loss. It does not intercept anti-ship missiles. Physical security remains the binding constraint, and the US Navy confirmed on March 12 it is "not ready" for commercial escorts. Now here is the part that should terrify every allocator on Earth. Agriculture runs on biological deadlines. Corn Belt farmers need nitrogen applied by mid-April. Indian Kharif season prep starts in May. Australian winter crop needs urea by June. These are not financial deadlines that reprice. They are photosynthetic deadlines that, once missed, produce irreversible yield loss. A diplomatic breakthrough on April 15 does not help a farmer who needed fertilizer on April 1. And the yield math is nonlinear. Wall Street models fertilizer-to-output as proportional. It is not. The response is quadratic. In developed systems that over-apply nitrogen, a 15% reduction costs 2-5% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already under-apply, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021 when a sudden fertilizer ban collapsed rice production 40% in a single season and brought down the government. The market is pricing a 45-day disruption. The insurance architecture says 120 days minimum. Even after a hypothetical ceasefire, Solvency II capital rebuild, reinsurance treaty renegotiation, and vessel re-underwriting take months. The Red Sea precedent: 26 months after Houthi attacks began, war-risk premiums never returned to pre-crisis levels. Both sides are rejecting negotiations. Trump rebuffed ceasefire mediation March 14. Iran's foreign minister on March 15: "We never asked for a ceasefire." Meanwhile: 51% of US corn areas in drought. El Nino favored by June at 62% probability. Skymet assigns 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. India formally asked China for urea on March 12. Egypt faces $28 billion in debt repayments while importing 12.7 million tonnes of wheat. WFP identifies 318 million people already at crisis-level hunger. The world stockpiled oil but forgot to stockpile the molecules that produce half its food. The clock is the position. Full analysis in the link! open.substack.com/pub/shanak…

Fuel shortages are now a reality in Australia. We are a resource rich nation. This should not be possible. If we had responsible politicians, it wouldn’t. But Australian elections have become a choice between two bad options for decades, with few exceptions. Worse, no matter which side we have voted for we get just about the same thing. Nobody has changed course. Elections in Australia are a cross between an economics lesson and shared distraction, as both sides of politics hope you don’t see their bribery of voters with taxpayer money for what it is. A giant scam. As the government has grown. As they have taken over more and more of the economy and regulated whatever they don’t totally control into oblivion, our industry has collapsed and that has pulled down our strategic preparedness. Australia is a shadow of the nation that emerged from the 1940’s. Industry has been in decline since the 80’s and we are not even a patch on what we were in the early 2000’s, the last time the West entered conflict in the middle east. The global strategic landscape is also much more perilous, and we are more vulnerable than we have ever been. Our political class has been irresponsible, trading our future for their power, and feeding the pocketbooks of their powerbrokers in the Unions, the lobbyist class and the education sector. We are not in this mess by some unhappy accident. Whilst Kevin Rudd flipped out over so-called manmade climate change, and Turnbull flipped out over not being Prime Minister, and whilst Scott Morrison betrayed the Australian people, winning by holding up a lump of coal and losing for implementing Net Zero, we now have Albanese who spent much of his first term losing “The Voice” referendum. Since then, he has broken promise after promise as he pretends the future can possibly be made in Australia. A complete disaster. Local oil refineries closed because the cost of energy and the impossibility of employing Australians grows and grows. Competing with a bloated public sector, an NDIS and an Industrial Relations system that treat businesses as crèches for the underperforming and unproductive. Those who are crazy enough to try and employ people in this country are seen by the government as an extension of the overgrown welfare system. Successive governments have spent most of their time trying to solve problems that don’t exist, whilst causing new problems and I think that has been their intention. I no longer give these people the benefit of the doubt. I am not sure I ever really did. Because if you look closely at the decisions they have made, and the legislation they have rushed through, if you think about the consequences of their busy work, Australia could only be weakened as a nation by what they have done. Much of the commonly held wisdom among the ABC chattering class, has obviously failed us. From multiculturalism to the energy transition, to the NDIS, the industrial relations system, the family courts, the Aboriginal industry as well as the big borrowing and spending agenda, that and more have all failed us. It was always going to. By now, much of the pain caused by these things is being broadly felt. It is becoming clear to more and more people, that the government and decades of kneeling to globalisation is to blame, but not everyone can yet see the connection between the horrendous outcomes and the latest idea from the Australian Greens. Or the utter corruption of the trade unions. Or the damage caused by the morally bankrupt lobbyists. Or the complete uselessness of the advisors, pollsters and spin-doctors. But I am sure as this economic crisis in Australia deepens, everyone will see the source of the problem. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Just as a ball thrown in the air is pulled back to earth by gravity, so too is government borrowing and spending crashed back on our heads by inflation. What goes up must come down, and the empty economic abys that is Australia is not here by some unlucky happenstance. It has been the achievement of decades of corrupt, inept and lazy politicians, who live deeply in bubble of self-congratulation. A fuel shortage does not only mean the prices of everything goes up more than they have already, it also means Australia runs the very real risk of grinding to a halt. If this crisis deepens, it will mean people will die. COVID will look like the entrée. We have every right to be furious with these people. I certainly am. It is time to put these grifters in the dustbin of history. I just want Australia back.

Don’t think their admiring my new fence scumbags

Won’t ride in the back anymore been tipped out too many times 😂

Gypsum out before the big rain hopefully ☔️

In their REDEMPTION era ✨ After a big crash yesterday, this LEGEND pulled off one of the most Aussie things you'll ever see! 🇦🇺 📺 #CEGORR | Jan 28 - Feb 1 | SBS & SBS On Demand

No, Albanese. I am not racist, nor am I uneducated. I am a degree qualified behavioural scientist with 42 years of experience in caring for people at work. I am also 3/4s through a PhD. in Organisational Culture and Risk Management. Unlike our Federal Treasurer, whose PhD. was on Paul Keating, and totally irrelevant to modern Australia, my research can actually prevent harm. You can paint me as a redneck bogan, or neo nazi, all day long, mate. I know who I am, and I am a proud One Nation member and an everyday Australian. Why? Well, not that you'd actually care, but One Nation has stood by everyday Australians for decades. We are not "Far Right." We have just been right so far. When I see the result of your socialist government is nothing more than economic mismanagement, banning everything you personally don't like, removing our freedoms, trying to regulate every aspect of our lives and then taxing the bejesus out of us every day, my goal is now only to convince everyone I come into contact with about how bad, dangerous, and divisive your government actually is. Your leadership ineptitude is of biblical proportions. Your hatred of our Jewish citizens stems from your anti-semitic history, all the way back to the PLO days when you fawned over that terrorist Arafat. One Nation is out polling the major political parties because everyday Australians, the massive silent majority, have had a gutful of what you have done to Australia. It's time to put an end to this dumpster fire that is the Labor Govt. Call an early election.

A Socialist claims to tax your money to give it to the poor. I reality, a Socialist takes your money and gives it to himself and friends. Meanwhile the Socialist wants to censor anyone who dares to mention this.

If you thought the Somali “learing centres” were bad in Minnesota - check out Australias very own NDIS. Full video drops tomorrow. #auspol #ndis @AusLobby