Somebody requested a longer post about what I'm seeing. Of course, I'm always wrong, but...
June OPEX is in 6 trading days. Huge OI, lots of big put positions. I have to imagine there is big interest in keeping stock controlled into that expiry. Or another way to look at it is the large positioning keeps the stock very controlled.
On the last day of 2025 the stock hit a deep low which I was looking for. "Yellow Swap" is what I've been calling this one and I think it is due again into this June OPEX or very near it (maybe Monday or Tuesday after). So another "reason" to control the stock or another "force" controlling the stock. Two ways to look at it.
When these positions come off, suddenly the stock can move very strongly. This is called Charm as I understand things. There is extremely light OI on June 26th as shown below. So there is a potential after June 18th for sudden movement. And the chart suggests a creeping PMO setup like we've seen many times before. Will it move up? I personally think so, but I am patient and just watching. I would be very unsurprised if it pulled back slightly into June 18th before moving. Often RSI will get "too hot" then reset before the big move. Options players generally get hosed if they buy early as they see contract value swing up then dumpster then swing again off a new bottom. Doesn't always happen but a little teaser baby rip before full send is actually kind of a pattern. Maybe that was today and we begin the descent into Thursday 6/18 now. Hard to say.
The lingering question many have is, Where 10-Q?
I was expecting it yesterday afternoon. I don't know what could be in it to cause a move, but that's a possibility.
Final thing I'm looking at is volume. This is a newer thing I watch but I look for a strong pullback on the 10-day SMA on volume and 20-day. If both pull back to specific levels, it is a good signal that the stock needs a volumetric event for some reason. Because of the 18m volume on June 3rd post early earnings, the 10-day SMA on volume is still a bit elevated. By June 18th if we stay in a low volume regime, maybe we'll get the volume signal flashing.
So right now I see a bullish formation with the Dual RSI Smoother trigger behind us, PMO crossed and moving up and SMA seemingly reaching a vertex. However, I see a 10-Q lurking, big OPEX, possible swap, and still a bit more need for "low volume" pre-run.
They also just redeemed XRT down again which I think is how they are able to pin the stock so forcefully (cycle GME into XRT from other ETFs then dump it onto lit via XRT redemption).
I would expect our next run to correspond with these signals on XRT: high volume and creation up to 8m units as they replenish whatever they are cycling.
I see the process as:
Broader "slower" ETFs (deep storage of GME)
-> XRT fast cycling (create to bring in, redeem to lit)
-> Sell GME down or pin price into particular options expiries or swap expiries
Then refill XRT and the other ETFs during a pump cycle:
Sweep buy short dated options ->
Exercise and take delivery ->
Refill all the ETFs
Somehow this is economical. Which tells me there is a reason to do all this and that reason to me always screams swaps.
TLDR:
Pressure probably keeps building into 6/18.
Unknown Variable: 10-Q
After? Charm.
Big picture? Company is insanely amazingly health. Institutional ownership climbing. Bull thesis growing. Bears in shambles.
Saga continues.
Usual Disclaimer:
I'm always wrong. Make good decisions. Babe Ruth parties when he wants to. Don't buy short dated call options unless you really know what you're doing. I hope people make money on this trade. I am very bad at predicting it and bad at trading it but still do just fine. You don't actually have to be very good to do well but there are some things you probably shouldn't do like buy short dated options if you don't understand them or sell CCs at the bottoms. Good luck in all things. Not financial advice. Love you all. Jesus is King!