Aramco and ADNOC Navigate Hormuz Disruption as Oil Flow Costs Rise
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, but at markedly higher operational risk and cost.
Recent reports show that Aramco Trading and ADNOC were among the companies able to move crude cargoes through Hormuz despite Iran’s effective closure of the waterway. The story is not that flows have normalized. It is that participants are paying a substantial risk premium for limited volumes through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Key insights:
• Non-Iranian crude flows through Hormuz have reportedly dropped to around 500,000 barrels per day
• BloombergNEF estimates the disruption threatens around 14 million bpd, equivalent to about 32% of global seaborne crude trade
• Oil product flows are also exposed, with around 16% of global product trade at risk
• Some tankers are switching off AIS transponders during transit to reduce detection risk
• Brent crude has traded in the USD 101 to 102 range after earlier spikes above USD 110
The market signal is clear. Even when cargoes move, the cost structure shifts. Insurance, freight, security risk, legal exposure, delays, and uncertainty all rise.
For Gulf exporters, the challenge extends beyond production capacity to export reliability. For importers, it is not only price. It is supply continuity, shipping risk, and the credibility of alternative routes.
The key takeaway is that Hormuz risk is now embedded beyond crude benchmarks. It is reshaping logistics, insurance markets, contract performance, and the broader risk premium attached to Gulf energy flows.
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