Buyside Investor. Not investment advice. Do your own work. moatless "dot" capital "at" gmail "dot" com The line between Shabi and Niubi is very thin.
Joined April 2018
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21 Mar 2021
There are some 130mln books in the world. In a life time, an avid reader can expect to read 1 book/week. Over a 60 year period, one can be expected to read some 3100 books. That is 0.0024% of all books outstanding. What *not to read* is more important. #alwaysinvert
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Apr 29
The US is pursuing a "Dynamic Zero Chinese EV" Policy much like how China pursued "Dynamic Zero Covid" Policy in 2022.
Allowing Chinese cars into the United States with full motion video, geolocation and the ability to be hacked via Bluetooth is a threat to our national security and our economic security.
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Jun 16
American lobbying for "Dynamic Zero Chinese EV" Policy much like how some Chinese people were lobbying for "Dynamic Zero Covid" Policy in 2022.
x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2…
Jun 15
It's also a national security concern. A connected car is essentially a mobile sensor platform: cameras, mics, GPS, audio logs, all pipes back to the mainland.
Case in point: the Israeli Military recently pulled ~600 leased Chery cars from officers and banned Chinese vehicles from bases — "sterilizing" the infotainment wasn't enough. (7/10)
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But some people (much like in 2022 during World Cup people in China did) are starting to notice what life was like without Dynamic Zero.
things i’ve learned from going back and forth to China:
- a lot (most) new cars on the U.S. market are actually really fucking awful
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Jun 16
The next 12 months in China is "election season" - i.e the ramp up of political jockeying prior to the 21st Party Congress. As a result, you're going to see a significant number of government related headlines from China that appear to be 'novel'.
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Jun 16
Exhibit B - SAMR setting up regulatory meetings with all sorts of companies reminding everyone ("刷存在感/attention seeking") that they're doing their job providing oversight of the economy/market.
x.com/MacroMargin/status/206…
Jun 15
最近监管频繁约谈，约完这个约那个，今天轮到山姆。
具体逻辑可见我此前的分析预判，完全符合预期。
6月8日：市监总局约谈美宜佳总部
6月11日：北京市监局约谈淘宝/天猫、京东、拼多多、抖音、小红书
6月11日：市场监管总局会同中央网信办、国家铁路局约谈携程、同程、去哪儿、飞猪等7家平台
6月11日：工信部、市场监管总局约谈提醒涉嫌非理性竞争汽车生产企业
6月15日：市监总局约谈山姆总部
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Exhibit C - The NBS finally got around to consolidating Services Retail Sales with "Stuff" Retail Sales. Not because it was the analytically correct thing to do but because "Stuff" number was so bad that someone's promotion might be jeopoardized
x.com/HongshenZhu/status/206…
Strange that the NBS and news outlets say this is the first time they publish the aggregate number of goods and service retail sales number. Since the same spokesman reported the Jan-Apr number last month...
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Jun 16
Ant Financial IPO cancellation ala 2020 anyone?
Jun 16
NEW @WIRED: Trump admin officials concluded talks today with Anthropic without lifting export controls on Claude Fable 5, and next steps are unclear
— Admin continues to believe that there are ways to jailbreak Fable 5 and access the capabilities of Mythos
— Anthropic continues to say those concerns are overblown and reiterated that position in working group meeting with Commerce Dept’s CAISI and ONCD
— Commerce Secy Howard Lutnick dialed in from G7 in France. National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross did not participate himself
— Commerce has expressed willingness to allow Fable 5 back online for consumer use, but only as long as Anthropic resolves their jailbreak concerns
w/ @ZeffMax @lilyhnewman
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Moatless Capital retweeted
Jun 15
Wow I can’t believe they did the meme
Jun 14
BREAKING: Iran says the US has agreed to pay $300 billion in reconstruction funds directly to Iran as part of the deal Pakistan announced, alongside the release of $24 billion in frozen funds with $12 billion released before negotiations even start, per Mehr News.
This directly contradicts Trump's & Vance's claim that no funds will be transferred to Iran at all.
If Trump denies this is true, there never was a deal. If Trump confirms, the US has fully capitulated to Iran's demands.
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Jun 15
Hate CCP, Understand CCP, Become CCP
Jun 15
We are banning social media access for under 16s.
These days kids must find their feet in a world where technology intrudes into every area of their life.
I just can’t let that go on anymore. So we’re giving children their childhoods back.
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Jun 15
Huge missed opportunity by Anta to deck out Zhou Wiesenthal @TheStalwart with Descente and Kyrie Irving shoes
Jun 14
Had an unbelievable, surreal blast during my first trip to The Mainland. A big thank you to my new friends for life @yesokyeahsure @luogl @paul191919 and @BijanTavassoli for showing me as much of Shenzhen as one can reasonably see and do in 27 hours.
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Jun 14
I know it’s 2026 and nuance is illegal but you can simultaneously think Huawei is impressive, and that they are innovative, while also thinking they are sometimes full of shit. Especially when they claim "Pangu was the OG LLM"
Jun 12
全世界大模型之父：华为盘古
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Jun 13
Popmart is going to end up on the Chinese Military supplier list isn't it?
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Jun 13
Popmart is obviously a Chinese scheme to infiltrate the heart and minds of young American soldiers to hesitate in shooting when seeing Labubus painted on PLA gear
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Moatless Capital retweeted
Jun 12
I know it’s 2026 and nuance is illegal but you can simultaneously think SpaceX is impressive, capitalism is amazing and the only viable system, while also thinking one man holding >$1T in wealth while young people cannot afford homes is a symptom of a deteriorating society.
Jun 12
I know it’s 2026 and nuance is illegal but you can simultaneously think SpaceX rocketry is an impressive engineering achievement while also thinking a $2T valuation is an affront to intellectual honesty
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Jun 10
The irony is that Cisco/Ericsson should actually be the ones classified as aiding Chinese military in its modernization program.
Having met with Chinese robotics companies they try very hard to not sell direct to the PLA.
Jun 9
US says BYD, Baidu, Alibaba and other tech giants are aiding China's military
Is this a game we really want to play? See comments.
reuters.com/world/asia-pacif…
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Jun 10
Nobody got this question right.
Guess who did the initial wave of 'informatization' for the PLA before Huawei became competitive.
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