13 Years Trading & Traveling. I Take Traders From Struggling To Consistently Profitable 👇
Joined November 2018
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Pinned Tweet
3 Jan 2019
trading is a sport that is played 365 days a year,
you wont survive being average in this game,
train everyday on and off the court like a elite athlete would,
dont watch the goat...become the GOAT!
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Interesting stat from #edgeful for those trading $ES and $NQ.
Over the last 12 months, when the first hour of the New York session closes red, and price later breaks above that first-hour high, there has been roughly a 90% chance that the day still ends red.
In other words, once the high is broken, price will be green at some point during the day. However, rather than expecting continued bullish momentum, historical data suggests there's a high probability that price eventually reverses and closes red by the end of the session.
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Jun 15
JPY Futures Analysis $USDJPY
Technicals:
- PRice low on range. Yes, price did break the lows on the JPY futures but NOT for USDJPY.
- PRice showing earl evidence of buy confirmation.
- Long-term trend = down.
Fundamentals/Sentiment:
- COT reports new MAX short of 267k, looking at banks/insitutions nearing to take profits on shorts.,
- Not great fundamentals, but raised CPI inflation projections, possible Goverment intervention.,
Overall:
- Yes, valid longs in the JPY (short in the forex market), but this is the early confirmation. There will be many opportunities to buy this currency over the next 2-3 months if they start taking profits. Trade with small risk... Personally, I'll wait 1-2 more weeks before looking for longs. Right now, early buyers are valid but aggressive.
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Jun 15
Trading News For The Week 📊👀
- Bank rates from US, JPY, AUD, CHF, and GBP. (This will also be Kevin Warsh's first FED Meeting).
- Friday Holiday (Markets Closed)
- US Retail Jobs
- UK Jobs Report
- On-going US-Iran deal Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens Friday. Pakistan PM Confirms Peace Deal, with a signing event in Switzerland next
#tradingnews #stocknews
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Jun 11
Been busy getting ready for the World Cup by picking up small 1-5% edges on Poly.
No emotions, just pure edge.
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Just giving a heads up that the Supply-De and E-book will only be available for 1 more week.
In case you don't have your own copy, I will attach it below.
In this E-Book you will learn:
- Supply-Demand Trading
- My Personal Step-by-Step Plan
- Top 5 Trading Psychology Mistakes And How To Avoid Them.
- 90 Day Roadmap
You can pick it up here: moneyballtrading.com/
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You might find this interesting and worth keeping in mind for future trades: using Edgeful data.
Over the last 12 months, when the first hour of the New York session closes red, and price later breaks above that first-hour high, there has been roughly a 90% chance that the day still ends red.
In other words, once the high is broken, price will be green at some point during the day. However, rather than expecting continued bullish momentum, historical data suggests there's a high probability that price eventually reverses and closes red by the end of the session.
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🤔JPY Analysis $USDJPY 👇
Technicals:
- Price BROKE bottom of demand/range creating new all time lows.
- Price below 20,50,100,200 MA.
Fundamentals/Sentiment:
- COT reports show small buying, but aggressively adding to shorts. NOTE... JPY has NOW reached new MAX short position of 244k.
- Weak fundamentals, but concern of higher inflation JPY carry over trade issues possible Government intervention.
Overall:
- I'm anticipating that banks and institutions will begin closing short positions and adding to longs over the next few months, similar to what we saw earlier this year with the AUD and EUR. Because of that, I would not be looking to short the JPY simply because institutions are still adding to short positions. That doesn't mean price can't move lower or that positioning reports can't become even more short, but from a market timing perspective, I don't think the risk/reward or EDGE is as attractive anymore. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some type of "white swan" event, flash move, or headline-driven catalyst that pushes price sharply in one direction to get the market moving. For now, I think it's still too early to act. I'd rather wait a few more weeks and see how things develop. Listen to the Sunday meeting for a deeper breakdown.
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Trading News For The Week 📰 👇
🛢️OPEC Meeting:
On Monday, OPEC ministers agreed to increase collective oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day.
🍎APPLE:
Apple’s event is on Monday, with expectations focused on a major AI push.
🇨🇦Bank Of Canada Rates:
The BoC will likely keep rates on hold at its next meeting as it navigates uncertainty surrounding trade and issues in the Middle East, following its recent entry into recession.
🇪🇺ECB Rates:
The ECB is expected to hike by 25bps to a Deposit Rate of 2.25%.
🇺🇸US CPI:
Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% M/M in May (prev. 0.6%), with the annual rate picking up to 4.2% Y/Y (prev. 3.8%).
🚀SpaceX IPO:
SpaceX IPO is Friday and is targeting an equity valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion.
Other News:
🇬🇧UK GDP.
📊No Major Stock Earnings.
🤖Trump is expected to meet with Top AI companies at the White House.
#tradingnews #stocknews
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LOL.
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This Pollymarket trade is catching a lot of retail eyes
($179 Million to be exact).
The bet is whether or not MicroStrategy sells any bitcoin by May 31.
MicroStrategy did sell some Bitcoin on May 26th, according to the disclosed sales, so most traders would assume this bet would be 100% yes, but the problem is that the trade was disclosed AFTER May 31st, which is outside the given rules, and why the NO will win.
Smart money is pounding the No, and dumb retail money still can't figure out the rules.
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When you reduce the risk of the trade you greatly lower the chance of you making an emotional trading decision.
Lower the risk to the point where you don’t care about the risk… that’s how trading should feel.
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👉For those who are trading Forex, you should take an interest in learning about A-book vs B-book brokers.
P.S. If you plan on day-trading, then you should look at the futures space for cheaper spreads, commissions, regulations, and to have a centralized exchange.
#forex #forexeducation
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$DXY Analysis: I'm already positioned long on the USD, so I don't plan on adding many new positions. The only currencies I may consider adding to are the AUD and GBP.
With recent inflation and growth-related data coming in stronger than expected CPI, PMI, PPI, and JOLTS Job Openings, the USD could be setting up for a stronger move over the next few weeks.
From a technical perspective, the USD has also shown strength by sweeping liquidity below recent lows, producing a false breakout, breaking through supply zones, and creating new demand zones on the 1H and 2H timeframes
Overall, both the fundamentals and technicals are supporting a bullish USD outlook with some other COT Currency positions supporting this move.
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Just had a trader reach out to me, saying he's in a drawdown and frustrated that he's gone 1/9 and wants to know if he should change anything.
Here are the numbers and what I told him....
1) First of all, I asked him if he truly believes trading is nothing more than a breakeven (BE) game?
Because at the end of the day, trading is roughly a BE game.
As long as you manage risk and never move your SL or TP, or close the trade early, you'll be a breakeven trader.
2) The guy averages 3:1 reward:risk.
While that may feel frustrating, going 1/9. It's actually completely normal when targeting larger reward-to-risk trades.
Think of it like watching a roulette wheel land on black 5 times in a row. Is that unusual?
Not at all. It's a normal part of probability.
The problem is that most traders, just like gamblers, become emotionally attached to recent results.
If they've been betting on red, they start believing the game is somehow rigged against them.
Then, over the next 55 spins, the wheel might land on red 30 times and on black 25 times, bringing everything back in line with the expected probabilities.
The same thing happens in trading.
Relax.
Drawdowns are part of the game. What's important is that you don't rage-quit, start increasing risk, or abandon your system. That's exactly what 90% of traders and gamblers do.
You have an edge. That's what matters.
See comments for part2...
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Here's an example of a live roulette wheel I pulled up...
10/13 spins have been between numbers 1-19 vs 20-36 (Low VS High).
The odds are literally 48.5% chance.
Does this mean the game is "rigged" no... It's the law of averages.
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Relax.
Drawdowns are part of the game.
What's important is that you don't rage-quit, start increasing risk, or abandon your system.
That's exactly what 90% of traders and gamblers do.
Once this trader completes another 5-7 trades, we'll complete our 1-on-1.
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