Joined July 2024
- Tweets 1,609
- Following 1,555
- Followers 6,965
- Likes 6,209
208 Photos and videos
MovieTime retweeted
Mar 9
Prediction markets are onboarding *273,908 new users every month
The retention is what's interesting
50.2% stay more than 1 month
30% stay more than 3 months
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Feb 10
Vegas did $130M on the Super Bowl.
Prediction markets did $1.33B. 10x Vegas
1. @Kalshi - $871M
2. @Polymarket - $312M
3. @opinionlabsxyz - $92M
4. @predictdotfun - $31M
5. @Novig - $19M
6. @SX_Bet - $5M
7. @Overtime_io - $443K
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MovieTime retweeted
Feb 10
Introducing Parity, your edge in prediction markets.
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Jan 28
Visualized all non-sport prediction markets with $1m volume that have ended
Biggest takeaway is that these markets are quite asymmetrical
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Jan 28
Thanks @sui414 for the inspo x.com/sui414/status/20162451…
Prediction markets don’t all aggregate information the same way -
Sports bets accumulates volume early on and flattens near the end. While News market stay quiet and rise at the very last portion right before resolution.
Very different game (and edges) to play 👀
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Jan 15
Pull all the location data for Prediction Market Twitter.
Out of the 280,830 accounts the top locations were
United States 56,326
Hong Kong 15,841
India 11,669
A short story.
Shame on all of the projects that ran AI slop campaigns via InfoFi platforms.
The inorganic activity / fake metrics was obvious if you have common sense and it made X borderline unusable for everyone else.
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Jan 15
The data for anyone interested
1. United States 56,326
2. Hong Kong 15,841
3. India 11,669
4. Nigeria 9,517
5. United Kingdom 8,312
6. Japan 7,119
7. Germany 7,044
8. Canada 6,107
9. Singapore 5,099
10. Spain 4,619
11. Indonesia 4,419
12. France 4,211
13. Vietnam 4,000
14. Europe 3,810
15. Netherlands 3,715
16. Australia 3,652
17. Taiwan 3,570
18. South Korea 3,243
19. Turkey 3,226
20. Ukraine 2,829
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MovieTime retweeted
3 Nov 2025
It's with a heavy heart I have to admit defeat on prediction markets.
Polymarket alone had 251,000 active addresses last week and did $1.1B in volume.
Meanwhile, trading bots on Solana did $946M volume with top 5 bots having 139,000 users combined.
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MovieTime retweeted
27 Oct 2025
.@MovieTimeDev & @alexmccullaaa's Polymarket accuracy analysis made it on All-in this week. Amazing.
17 Sep 2025
How accurate is Polymarket?
89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution.
Fun fact.
78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
ALT Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions
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25 Oct 2025
Liquidity is the biggest problem in prediction markets.
More liquidity = better spreads
19,736 markets on polymarket
16 have >$1M in liquidity
574 have >$100K
and 3,401 have >$10k
Thin liquidity = wide spreads = bad prices
ALT Polymarket Liquidity Overview
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MovieTime retweeted
17 Sep 2025
How accurate is Polymarket?
89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution.
Fun fact.
78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
ALT Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions
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25 Oct 2025
Analyzed 52,158 Polymarkets at 12hrs before resolution
here is what I found
>polymarket is within 2-3% of the actual outcome
> its most accurate at 80% odds (variance of 0.3%)
> least accurate at 50% odds (with a variance of 6.9%)
ALT Prediction Market Accuracy
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22 Oct 2025
My prediction market timeline recently
new markets
>kraken draftkings both bought CFTC exchanges (entering pred markets)
expansions
>kalshi x jupiter (on-chain liquidity)
>NHL licenses to polymarket kalshi
>underdog partnering with cryptocom, kalshi, polymarket
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20 Oct 2025
8% of users yet 53% of the volume
prediction market users are betting more, why?
>better spread and lower fees
>thats the whole value
last month we had 751k* traders on prediction markets vs 8.64m* traders on sport books. (mau)
daily volume over the last month has averaged $216m on prediction markets
compared to the $405.6m volume on sports books.
thats 53% of their volume with 8% of the users.
ALT Sports Betting vs Prediction Markets MAU comparison.
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13 Oct 2025
56% of positions bought on Polymarket are held until resolution.
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10 Oct 2025
215 wallets (0.08%) controlled 50% of septembers volume on polymarket
for reference domer was 37th with $6,946,682 in volume
ALT grouping volume for top wallets on polymarket, month of september
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