Head of Policy & Public Affairs Research @OpiniumResearch. Have some public policy to develop and communicate? Get in touch.
Joined September 2011
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I don't think attending an elite 586-year-old institution is any more of an obstacle to modernisation than attending the 471-year-old St John's, Oxford, which has clearly not been a brake on Lewis's excellent work in the 21st century.
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James Crouch retweeted
Jun 13
🚨 NEW Opinium–Forward Democracy poll 🚨
Our Makerfield by-election poll in the @Independent finds Andy Burnham narrowly ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon.
🌹 Labour (Burnham): 46%
➡️ Reform UK (Kenyon): 41%
🟦 Restore: 7%
🌳 Conservative: 3%
🌍 Green: 2%
🔶 Lib Dem: 1%
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Jun 13
Headline polling not enough for you?
Have a look on the link in the thread and you get to explore by voting intention by past vote, EU Ref vote and demographics.
Jun 13
🚨 NEW Opinium–Forward Democracy poll 🚨
Our Makerfield by-election poll in the @Independent finds Andy Burnham narrowly ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon.
🌹 Labour (Burnham): 46%
➡️ Reform UK (Kenyon): 41%
🟦 Restore: 7%
🌳 Conservative: 3%
🌍 Green: 2%
🔶 Lib Dem: 1%
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James Crouch retweeted
Jun 13
Another Makerfield constituency poll: @OpiniumResearch for Forward Democracy exclusive by @Athena_Stavrou @Independent
Andy Burnham Labour 46%
Robert Kenyon Reform 41%
Rebecca Shepherd Restore 7%
Sample 543
independent.co.uk/news/uk/po…
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James Crouch retweeted
Jun 11
Peter Hitchens gloriously pushing back against the idea that 5-year-olds shouldn't be made to learn poetry by heart.
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Jun 13
Love this from Emily Thornberry.
But the constitutional pedant in me can’t resist:
1. The Accession Council confirms the identity of the monarch, not chooses. Charles III was king from the second the late Queen died.
2. Charles is the King of Great Britain & Northern Ireland.
Jun 12
Hi Frances, I know it was 4 yrs ago, but your memory lets you down. You asked to see me on the day that I attended the Privy Council to choose the next King of England.
My minion, as you called her, apologised & offered other dates.
Not a coward, just busy - like many women👑
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Jun 12
Andy Burnham says Labour should shift money from welfare into defence spending.
At first glance, that's exactly where public opinion is. But the politics become more complicated when you look beneath the headline.
An @OpiniumResearch thread 🧵👇
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Jun 12
And while voters are broadly willing to say welfare spending is too high, we remain a very long way from any major voter group believing the government spends too much on pensions.
When people talk about cutting "welfare", they don't mean a massive chunk of the welfare state.
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Jun 12
Winning over voters in a place like Makerfield is the easy part for Andy Burnham.
The harder challenge comes if Burnham ever has to hold together Labour's coalition across 400 constituencies.
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James Crouch retweeted
Jun 12
🚨 Join @WeAreBrightBlue this afternoon for our Ludgate Lecture with Professor Rob Ford
“After Manchester: is this the end of two-party politics?”
⏱️ 15:00 today
📺 Watch here: youtube.com/live/Sc7Pjl31aVs…
@robfordmancs
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James Crouch retweeted
Jun 11
Healey resignation wounds because 1) it is targeted directly at Starmer's supposed strengths: 'sensible', 'serious' 'doing the basics right' 2) Healey is an ex Treasury man, Labour loyal to his core and the 2020 last shad cab member still in his post. Touch of Howe about it.
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Jun 11
With John Healey going, 2 of the 3 best-performing members of Starmer's government, according to the public, have now resigned.
May 14
One of the more popular members of the Cabinet has resigned.
If there had been a post-local election reshuffle:
👍32% thought Wes Streeting should have been kept in role
🌹 59% of current Labour voters agreed
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Jun 11
The Cabinet is disintegrating from the top, and then at the other end the briefing is that all the least popular members of the Cabinet are the ones that have to stay.
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James Crouch retweeted
Jun 11
My letter to the Prime Minister
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Jun 11
The rightwards shift of the West Mids is one of the biggest electoral trends of the 00s and 10s .
Even after their crushing defeat in 2024, the Tories still have more seats in the West Mids than they did in 2001 or 1997.
Jun 11
Did the North vote most heavily for Brexit?
Ten years on from the referendum, the idea of the ‘Northern Brexit voter’ has become almost a political fact. But this stereotype is based on a myth. The North did not vote the most for Brexit.
Find out more: futurenorth.substack.com/p/t…
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Slightly disagree - at least from where party currently sit if you're the party strategists a seat that wasn't won in 2019 & Ref came second would always get squeezed
Instead I think what should set off far bigger alarm bells is if party doesn't make progress in Aberdeen South
Jun 8
Makerfield should be setting off sirens at Conservative HQ.
A seat where the party won 34% in 2019 now has them scraping along at 1–2%. Yet the reaction seems to be a shrug.
Going from contender to irrelevance in six years isn’t normal, it should terrify them.
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