ALN Session stats gave a pattern 4 today going into 8am, so expectancy wise, the London low of 25645 would be the target....HOWEVER.....At the time of the New Your range opening at 8am ET, price was at a daily -1.0 distribution.
Asking price to go lower down to that London low would be asking price to make an outlier day move as a normal distribution would be expected to reside inside /- 1.0. Without a anticipated new catalyst, there would not be a reason to anticipate an outlier move.
So while the expectancy given the stat was down, real-time price did not align. Realtime price was already a 133% of its 60 day average range and extended near a key reversion point. For this reason, avoiding the ALN Session based setup was the optimal choice.