I trade $NQ using statistical models, probabilistic frameworks, and custom tools built based on my market perspective. Creator of @NQStats

Joined November 2016
859 Photos and videos
“Directional Diversification”…. Lol @The5ersFutures what kind of scam rule is this.
Jun 8
This has to be one of the worst rules I've ever seen; they're not even hiding it anymore. Someone sent me this; it's from the 5ers, a CFD firm. So what do you do if Gold or the Indices are just trending up? Do you sell to make sure you're not getting banned? What?
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Chris™ retweeted
The NQ Stats website has added a "Coaching" tab. This is where you can inquire about coaching related to personal process improvement or specific NQ Stats content via deep dives. Learn more at nqstats.com/coaching.html

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Chris™ retweeted
youtu.be/pxs2MuqvH3w New vid for the new site on "Price Distributions". "Price Distributions" is a statistical framework I use to tell what regime we are in, what my bias should be (trend vs mean reversion), and when to time my entries. It uses percent net change from open to close of various time windows to calculate samples and derive data from said sample.
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5yr session distribution on the left, 20-day session distribution on the right, current session in the middle. 20-day is compressed relative to the 5yr. What does this mean? This means recent volatility is below the long-term baseline. The market has been quieter than usual over the last month, despite the uptrend to new all time high. Currently in a compression / consolidation regime in terms of vol. Range bound tape, lower ATR, tighter daily ranges, etc. Compressed vol historically resolves into vol expansion, and often violently. The trend continues until it doesn't, and when the regime breaks, you get sharp moves that blow through the narrow rolling bands. That's the "vol of vol" risk. Expecting outlier days here soon, don't let it catch you off guard when it happens.
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Awesome to hear! Well done Dom!
First payout secured today with the process I developed together with @ProbableChris during his coaching in March. This has been a long and bumpy ride but it was totally worth it! I also want to thank @PatternProfits, @Mc5calpAfee and @paxtrader777 for their help and insights!
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If you want to read up on the framework itself, you can read it here: gist.github.com/karpathy/442…
I took "Karpathy's Second Brain" framework and catered it to trading, see repo link below. Karpathy's concept was to dump everything you know into one place, point an AI at it, and let it build the intelligence layer. For trading, that means every trade, chart, and end-of-day note you write goes into a structured system that an AI organizes into a living playbook — tracking win rates, flagging rule breaks, and surfacing patterns you'd never catch manually. What you end up with isn't a course or a template, it's a system built entirely from your own data. github.com/ProbableChris/Tra…
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I took "Karpathy's Second Brain" framework and catered it to trading, see repo link below. Karpathy's concept was to dump everything you know into one place, point an AI at it, and let it build the intelligence layer. For trading, that means every trade, chart, and end-of-day note you write goes into a structured system that an AI organizes into a living playbook — tracking win rates, flagging rule breaks, and surfacing patterns you'd never catch manually. What you end up with isn't a course or a template, it's a system built entirely from your own data. github.com/ProbableChris/Tra…
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Chris™ retweeted
I want to thank you @ProbableChris here also! I had a great month with you and my trading process improved massively! Thanks for all your help & advice throughout the month. I will share my progress here soon. For now, I keep following the defined process!
For March, I’ll be working with @dom1984. Thanks for the interest from those that applied.
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Will be taking a break during the month of April as I have a few things going on that wont allow me to have the time for coaching this month. Will resume in May!
In 2026, I am doing a free month long coaching, each month, for one randomly selected person. The intent of this coaching is to work with traders who are near profitable, hovering breakeven, who need refinements to get them across the finish line. We will refine YOUR current process, utilizing your current strategy. If you are interested in applying, please use this form. I will draw someone for the month of March tomorrow, 27 Feb. If you have previously applied, no need to apply again. docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F…
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High expectancy, trend confirming.
Going into 8am ET, NQ is in a Pattern 4. What does this mean, see pictures attached, or learn more at nqstats.com/aln_sessions.htm…
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Chris™ retweeted
NQ Stats website has received a redesign, with additional metrics and data around the existing stats/concepts. Check it out at nqstats.com/ and leave some feedback in the comments!
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Automated trading strategies have been popping up in my feed lately. As someone who has built many automated systems over the last 20yrs, here are 9 things you as the user should be asking for before using someone's automated system. probablechris.com/automated-…
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Circling back to this… Edge isn’t a setup. Edge isn’t an educated guess. Edge is process. Strategy without risk management and self-control is gambling. Risk management and discipline without strategy is just structured guessing. Edge exists only when all three work together, a strategy, disciplined execution, and controlled risk. Individually they’re incomplete. Together they tilt the odds.
What is “edge”? I execute trades based on live market context. My trades are aligned with the high expectancy directional bias derived from historical market data via robust statistics and probabilistic frameworks. I make educated guesses. Sometimes the guesses are right, sometimes they are wrong. My strict process, which contains my strategy, self control, and risk management, allow for profitability over the long run. - where is the “edge” here?
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What is “edge”? I execute trades based on live market context. My trades are aligned with the high expectancy directional bias derived from historical market data via robust statistics and probabilistic frameworks. I make educated guesses. Sometimes the guesses are right, sometimes they are wrong. My strict process, which contains my strategy, self control, and risk management, allow for profitability over the long run. - where is the “edge” here?
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I have no conversation history or DM history with Dan. Dan took the free content shared on my page and through my @NQStats platform, put the work in, and got the output he was after. Congrats on the payout Dan!
Want to take a moment to thank @ProbableChris for all his work and the knowledge he’s sharing. This is the result of trading two weeks @NQStats combined with some Magic Hours stats (thanks @DokaKuri). Also shoutout to @TradingLucid for an overall very nice experience.
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Here is a video going over every line of code in this strategy, as well as discussing historical stat vs future expectancy and why it matters. youtube.com/watch?v=M58CJylX…
Replying to @MrZincx
Here is the 5yr backtest for this exact strategy. -IB defined as 930am ET to 1030am ET -Waits for IB range to close. -IB has not yet been broken. -If low formed first, buys the mid point, stop loss is IB low, PT is IB high. -If high formed first, shorts the mid point, stop loss is IB high, PT is IB low.
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You are claiming something is profitable when it is not lol. I am not milking anything. You have posted a strategy publicly, eluding to the fact that it is profitable as depicted, when it is not. When people trade this and get wrecked they will want to know why, and you will tell them "buy my discord" to learn more.
Really milking my brand as much as you can for a few views.
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