PhD Iranian Studies. Adjunct Fellow Middle East institute. Master of International Relations SIPA, MA Political Science Columbia University. Farsi Eng. French
Joined January 2020
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11 Feb 2025
On the 46th anniversary of the revolution that unleashed political Islam, ousted a strong American ally, and changed the ME and the national security imperatives of western countries and Israel a simple thread as to what happened and why:
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I need to wear a disappointment-proof vest. Calls and chats with Iranians both inside and outside of Iran are a chorus of despair and bitterness.
One Iranian doctor who was shot in his right hand while operating on a victim in January (they killed the patient) said: “US should have operated on the basis of First do no Harm to Iranians. Giving the mullahs a lifeline does exactly the opposite. We are now all enemies.”
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Jun 10
More reason to keep the blockade and forget about a deal.
@POTUS: “Did you know we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil? Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't know about it? Iran — until right now. We took out, the other night, 22 ships. Late at night, with no lights.”
Jun 10
Reporter: “Are you concerned, Mr. President, about the latest inflation number which came out this morning?”
President Trump: “No, I love it. The numbers were great. You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over… Did you know we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil? Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't know about it? Iran — until right now. We took out, the other night, 22 ships. Late at night, with no lights.”
“That’s why oil is $85 a barrel.”
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Jun 8
“The only thing that has ever worked is the strategy the West keeps abandoning halfway: strategic, long-term deterrence and pressure that would [empower] Iranians to take their country back, denies the regime resources, legitimacy and the belief that aggression will be rewarded.”
Jun 8
A ceasefire is not peace, not with this regime.
There is no version of this that ends with Islamic Republic persuaded. The instability caused by this regime doesn't flow from a grievance a concession can resolve but flows from the nature of the regime itself, a theocracy that cannot survive on its own record and so manufactures legitimacy from confrontation.
The only thing that has ever worked is the strategy the West keeps abandoning halfway: strategic, long-term deterrence and pressure that would enable the Iranian people to take their country back, denies the regime resources, legitimacy, and the belief that aggression will be rewarded.
The choice was never between confrontation and peace. It is between pressure now and far greater pain later, paid, as always, by everyone except the men in Tehran who manufacture it.
Continue on this path, and they'll close Bab al-Mandab next.
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Jun 7
Once a senior CNN journalist described the regime elite as “Bache Por-roo” loosely translated from Farsi as a bully who crosses the line and expects to be applauded.
There’s applause. But it’s from regime base and its proxies. 90% of Iranians are hoping Israel will attack Iran.
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Jun 6
Is @POTUS trolling the regime by suggesting that he will make “a good deal” and meet with Khamenei Jr?
@TheStoryFNC I suggested that it’s better if the Iranians met him first, since he still hasn’t made a public appearance!
Trump is well aware of regime’s fragility. He’s stalling the talks to keep the blockade and conduct “defensive” operations.
In using Tehran’s playbook against itself—delay, deflect, declare victory—he is pushing for regime’s strategic patience to run out.
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Jun 3
Is it better to be loved or feared?
Tehran has decided on the latter, ensuring that Iranians and neighbouring countries live in a constant dread of random deadly attacks.
If the regime survives this war it’s the only way it can continue to survive. reuters.com/world/iran-war-l…
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May 28
6. By reviving CENTO with Gulf States, the US can diplomatically AND militarily isolate the regime in Iran.
Tehran may withstand US naval power with asymmetric warfare for now. But it cannot survive permanent pressure on its oil hubs and export facilities.
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May 28
With or without a deal it’s time to formalize a NATO style security alliance among Gulf states to protect SOH from the tyranny of the Islamic Regime.
This idea is not new. In 1959 the Shah petitioned Eisenhower to protect Iran and the Gulf from increasing Soviet influence ⬇️
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May 28
5. The Shah was prescient in foreseeing the threat of emerging Marxist/Islamist ideologies which he called “the marriage of red and black.”
67 years later we are still grappling with Gulf insecurity and now Islamic regime empowered by Russia and China and Axis of Aggression.
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May 28
6. By reviving CENTO with Gulf States, the US can diplomatically AND militarily isolate the regime in Iran.
Tehran may withstand US naval power with asymmetric warfare for now. But it cannot survive permanent pressure on its oil hubs and export facilities.
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May 25
Does it really matter if #Khamenei son is alive?
No it doesn’t.
The elimination of key figures dilutes the system but doesn’t destroy it.
Since the Iran-Iraq war and the rise of IRGC, Tehran has operated on two prongs: Islamism and militarism.
And both are “overseen” by Mahdism; the belief that the last Imam Mahdi will return to save the believers, ie regime operators.
Iran will be a menace as long as it’s a theocratic state.
May 24
Scoop via @CBSNews: U.S. intelligence shows that Iran's supreme leader is effectively holed up in an undisclosed location with little access to the outside world and is only reached by a labyrinth of couriers, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.
cbsnews.com/news/iran-suprem…
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May 24
For decades Republicans blasted Carter for having “lost Iran.”
His indecisive approach towards the nascent Islamic regime, they argued, had empowered Khomeini and cemented his power.
@POTUS is well aware of Carter’s legacy. It’s unlikely that he will lose Iran again. Stay tuned
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May 17
Iranians are bracing themselves for another round of attacks, moving to family and friends’ safer homes.
An Iranian family who had just left for Armenia told me the fear is real but so is the hope. “We have been hospitable to these aliens for so long. It’s time they left.”
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May 14
Optics matter.
@realDonaldTrump arrives in #China with an armada of America’s best and brightest while US naval armada patrols the #PersianGulf.
Two armadas, one message: America is a force to be reckoned with. They won’t admit it but America’s adversaries get it.
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May 7
68 days into #Epicfury. Was it worth it or are we back to Obama’s JCPOA?
War and the blockade have made regime survival tenuous.
Tehran is weakened. Proxies are badly hurt and the economy is on the verge of collapse.
In time, it can implode.
@NewsNation @connellmcshane
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