This is a deliberate attempt to shift attention away from the ultimate causes of high prices, above all domestic climate and energy policy.
Beef, butter and milk are among the main recent drivers of continuing food price inflation.
That is not accidental. Prices in these categories are rising because the economics of livestock production have deteriorated sharply in recent years. The Government’s own Farming Profitability Review identifies the central pressures. Farmers face rising costs, greater regulatory and environmental obligations, weaker support and limited ability to recover costs from the supply chain.
As with manufacturing and energy-intensive industry, Government policy sits behind many of these pressures.
Domestic energy policy has weakened refining capacity and helped destroy the UK fertiliser sector, leaving farmers more exposed to imported inputs and global price shocks. The Government’s proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will include fertiliser from 2027, adding another structural cost to food production.
Taken together, these pressures have changed the incentives facing UK farmers. Livestock production depends on long biological and capital cycles. Farmers do not make decisions based only on today’s supermarket prices. They make decisions based on expected future profitability.
When that expected profitability falls, farmers reduce risk. They cut stocking rates, delay investment, shrink herds or leave the sector altogether. That is already happening. This is why the family farm tax row was so damaging. It hammered confidence in the future of the sector.
Herds have been shrinking year after year for more than a decade. The Climate Change Committee wants cattle and sheep numbers to fall by 27% relative to 2022 levels by 2040. It wants herds to shrink by 8% before 2030, while demand for meat and dairy falls by 11%.
Changes to land use policy, environmental permitting as part of reforms to water policy, higher costs for small abattoirs and higher fertiliser costs will do much of the heavy lifting.
The public sees the price effect of policy only later. By the time beef, butter and milk prices rise sharply in the shops, the productive capacity has already been weakened.
That is why blaming food price inflation on amorphous forces like climate change and global markets is so misleading. Similarly, blaming low pay and insecure work evades the central issue. Government policy has made British livestock production less viable.
Until the Greens, Labour and the Liberal Democrats confront the reality that policies they champion have created price pressures, their claims about the cost of living should not be taken seriously.
Food prices could rise 170% by 2050 due to the climate crisis.
People are already struggling to put food on the table while farmers and workers can't make ends meet.
We need urgent action.
independent.co.uk/news/uk/po…