DREAM @ FEVER, FULL BREAKDOWN:
June 4th
1) We head into Gainbridge, and this game could feature an ejection.
The storyline for this game will be Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark, though we will see how they schematically fit into this game. No team so far have allowed fewer 3PM than The Dream, and have funneled opposing offenses a step in to the Pullup 2s -- where they allow the highest frequency. They are ranking Top 2 vs Transition, Free Throws and Spot Up.
2) This drop coverage from Angel Reese have left them allowing the most Pts to PnR Handlers as well, though of course Clark would prefer that 3, where half of her frequency is coming from. Still, so far this season she is beating out Mitchell in the Midrange volume/freq.
Clark's recent two games against The Dream have been incredibly challenging, notching just 11 & 12 Pts as she is defended by Rhyne Howard. In all honesty, this matchup is the one that feels more personal.
3) This year's matchup should be even harder, as ATL's starting frontcourt is no longer a slow-footed duo of Griner/Jones, yet much quicker with this year's Reese/Hillmon. This gives Atlanta a lot more options to double or apply more pressure.
Rhyne held McBride to just 12 Pts in the recent meeting, while a better comparison may be how they defended Paige Bueckers -- who scored just 7 points in 31min.
Here we got Rhyne on Paige, along with Angel/Hillmon hedging on screen action. Hillmon took Shepard here (10 Pts, 2 Ast, 31min), so that should translate to Boston here.
4) Unsure how Fever beat this, as Dallas certainly was unable to, losing both meetings this season despite having the best offensive rating in the league. Chelsea Gray, one of the best midrange/pullup shooters in the league, is the only player to notch over 20 Pts vs Atlanta this season.
Her co-star in A'ja that game had 20 Pts off 12 FGA (2-2 from deep), with just 6 rebounds and 1 assist alongside that. Boston's handoff game has been a go-to against ATL historically (5 APG last season vs CC), though the new defense should cut that heavily.
5) Outside of this, Atlanta is allowing the fewest OPP RPG thus far, being especially limitative to backcourts (combined marks):
- Lacan/Rivers 3 Reb
- Barker/Leite 3 Reb
- Court/McBride 5 Reb
- Copper/Nogic/Williams 4 Reb
- Paige/Fudd/Sims/Arike 3 Reb
Boston has stock upside here given how often Angel concedes turnovers.
6) The Dream offense gets a much better matchup. The 4-4 Fever have fallen to 10th defensively, and sit there allowing the highest rim finish frequency in the league at 41.2%. The entire Dream team can attack the rim here, and Canada will draw Clark defensively.
Dream can employ the same tactic that the physical Valks did, where they promote anyone that Clark is defending. Canada on paper is my top pick to clear her line.
7) Indiana has ranked 1st in OPP 3PA and 2nd Chance Pts, so Atlanta's frontcourt in Reese and Hillmon both take some slight hits. Still IND's B3 rankings vs Free Throws, Transition and PnR Roller gives upside.
In 26 MPG, Angel has notched just 8 PPG vs Indiana amidst 11 RPG and 1.5 APG. The handoff game is unlikely to be big here for Atlanta, despite Angel having 7 potentials in 3 straight games.
Angel has gone under her PRA mark in 4/4 games when facing a Non-B3 Putback defense.