BA Sport Analysis | WNBA, NBA, NFL Primetime Writer | #BillsMafia | Owner of @NotifyPicks. Patreon ($15), Group Server ($25): dubclub.win/NotifyPicks/
Joined April 2020
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Jun 10
$10 to SOMEONE who LIKES β€οΈ
Full Recap | 6.9.26:
3.15u
β
- Fudd o1.5 3PM | -115
β
- Angel o25.5 PR | -120
β
- Shepard u12.5 Pts | -122
β
- Hillmon o9.5 1H FS
β
- Stevens u19.5 PRA
β
- Hillmon o0.5 STK
β
- Diggins u29.5 FS
β - C. Williams u22.5 PR | -120
WNBA FEEDS FAMILIES π«
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One Play Sunday β
Shakira Austin u12.5 RA | FD -136
6.14.26 Play #1 | #Mystics
WSH in for a down game here, almost lost vs TOR outright and now facing a surging Liberty team that has won 6 straight and has the 2nd best DRTG in that span. They sacrificed Hillmon as a shooter last game, and can do the same with Dugalic here (20%). WSH is shooting just 28% from deep this season, 3rd worst in the season.
As a result of Iriafen's absence, Betts played 21 minutes and she scored 18 points. Should be in same minutes range and NYL has allowed highest Post/Hook frequency. Last WSH meeting went to OT.
Recent rebs vs NYL:β¨- Angel 9 Rebβ¨- ONO 8 / Edwards 5β¨- Boston 9 / Billings 8β¨- Nyara 6
Austin likely a bit too high at 8.5 here, especially with some overlap with Betts.
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We GOT IT BACK π£οΈ
Recap | 6.13.26:
β
- Copper o17.5 Pts | -110
β
- Edwards u15.5 PR | -132
β
- Smith u7.5 Reb | -145
β
- Engstler o22 FS
β
- Mack o24.5 FS
β
- Brink o4 Reb
β
- Akoa Makani o20 FS
β
- Morrow u31.5 FS
πͺ - Mitchell o19.5 Pts | -112
πͺ - Shepard o33 FS
β - Hamby o21.5 PR | -120
β - Coffey o3.5 3PA
Kah Copper, in the rafters.
Annoying that we now have three Flex 5 double ups this monthβ¦ π
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Nalyssa Smith u7.5 Reb | DK -154
6.13.26 Play #4 | #ALLINLVA
22 MPG with Carter active, who is likely still limited but think will sit at 15min here. MIN funnels outside so won't be much help offensively, so think Becky will look to Talbot/Loyd/Carter more for shooting off bench.
But more importantly is that Coffey can burn her defensive from deep. She is 0/6 with under 25 minutes, and MIN is already Top 5 in OPP RPG.
Minutes play so u6.5 at anything better than 105 is fine for 0.8u.
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Jessica Shepard per 30 this season with Paige Bueckers off.
She faces a Portland team that ranks in the bottom 5 against Transition, Post Up, Spot Up and OPP FTA.
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caleb.bets π retweeted
Kelsey Mitchell o19.5 Pts | BO -104
6.13.26 Play #3 | #FeverUp
Indiana is 3-1 in the cup yet with a differential of just 14, while NYL (4-0) is at 46, so expect them to look to win big. CON is already eliminated. Big fan of Single Leg Sleeve Caitlin Clark.
CON is 2nd worst in DRTG, while B5 in OPP Pts off TOV, Fastbreak, and OPP FTA. This leads to great opportunities for speedy guards.
Kelsey Mitchell scored 38 last time she faced CON, and should have the best matchup here. If Indiana gets extra burn here for cup, I like that insurance. Think she'll get inside well here.
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caleb.bets π retweeted
Jun 13
Bueckers o5.5 Ast | FD -118
6.13.26 Play #2 | #WingsUp
Paige is going to face this Portland double, which has worked not only as a point limiter for opposing POAs, yet also as a pure assist leak. They rank 1st vs PnR Handlers. In turn the assist volume they have let up to these guards have been supreme:
- Burton 8
- Clark 6 in 22min
- Johannes 11
- Mabrey 8
- Diggins 7
- Plum 7 (6 2H)
- Jackie 10
POR is B5 vs Transition, Post Up, Spot Up and OPP FTA. Bueckers has 40 of her 69 assists this season going to either Azzi Fudd or Jessica Shepard. Since Fudd has moved to the starting lineup, Paige has notched 13.6 potentials and 6.8 assists per game.
She is averaging 10.5 RA/30, 6.5 Ast, with Shepard/Fudd on the floor.
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caleb.bets π retweeted
Jun 13
Kahleah Copper o17.5 Pts | FD -110
6.13.26 Play #1 | #PHXMercury
The Mercury are 4-10 to kick off the year, sitting 3rd worst in the league. This includes a loss vs The Sparks earlier in the year, though did score 88 points, which is more than the 8 games since that meeting. The Sparks still provide great scoring environments, sitting Top 5 in PACE, allowing the most OPP APG, PPG, and Stocks per game; They are dead last in defensive shot quality, so teams get easy looks.
Copper and AT scored 20 each, while Mack threw up 29 FS and AT 44.9. Copper drew a ton of action on Wheeler, and Sparks actually allowed that Post Up often -- to great benefit of Copper. She sits at a 28.2% USG on the year, and 15 players total have played 25 minutes vs LAS with >22% usage, with 13 of those covering this mark.
This includes good volume from slashers like Carter (23 Pts), Sykes (27 & 38 Pts), Jackie (17 FGA) and Flau'Jae (32 PRA).
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Jun 13
Got crushed yesterday
Recap | 6.12.26:
β
- Malonga o6 Reb
πͺ - Austin o26.5 PRA | -115
β - Gabby o3.5 Reb | -150
β - Thornton o4 DREB
β - Hiedeman u11.5 FGA
Austin 9 TOV, 19 2H PRA just to hook us.
Will spread the love a bit more to twitter today on this huge 4 game slate!
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Jun 13
This was a complete tragedy. Closed 29.5 after Kiki ruled out.
9 Turnovers from Austin, ended at 26 PRA, hook of pain & despair.
Jun 12
Austin o26.5 PRA | DK -115
βFREE FRIDAYβ Play #1 | #Mystics
The Tempo still have a shot at being high in the Eastern Conference Cup standings. Temi Fagbenle is probable after missing 11 games, while Sabally is questionable due to a hamstring injury -- would lean to her being OUT here. Kiki Rice is still out.
The Tempo have allowed the 2nd highest rim frequency off the 2nd highest OPP APG, while also ranking 11th in OPP RPG. Floaters, Post/Hook, and Corner 3s are all shot types they rank B3 in, only ranking solid in at up-top defense provided by Sykes, which still is worse with Rice out of the mix for a bit.
Shakira Austin set up for a big one, and with Iriafen questionable it could be even more. She has a 24.9% usage on the year, and has played just two games against B5 defenses who are also below average vs Centers:β¨- 31 PRA in 28min vs TOR (44.2 FS)β¨- 38 PRA in 25min vs LAS (37.5 FS)
Rebounds vs Tempo:β¨- ONO 13 Rebβ¨- Cardoso 8 Reb (23min) | Stevens 10 Reb (24min)β¨- Jonquel 17 Reb | Stewart 9 Rebβ¨- Holmes 7 (15min)
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Jun 13
Marina Mabrey right now is playing some absolutely insane basketball.
She has scored 10 Pts in a minute. Toronto down 3.
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Jun 12
Gabby Williams o3.5 Reb | -150
βFREE FRIDAYβ Play #2 | #Ballhalla
Storm have been a complete rebound leak, allowing the 2nd most per game at 37.3. Seattle has notched the fewest OREB per game, while also allowing the 2nd most OPP RPG overall. Rebounding Guards vs SEA, this is becoming a trend for SEA early on:β¨- Copper/Makani 6β¨- Paige 9!β¨- Rice 6β¨- Olivia 6 / Court 5β¨- Gray 5 / Jackie 3β¨- Atkins 6
With Malonga/Fam in we saw the opposing LVA frontcourt in A'ja (12), Smith (9), Ogwumike (9) and Hamby (10) dominate. Gabby is my top choice as Stokes often defers, with Thornton 2nd.
Williams guards FlauβJae, who on offsets likes to sit in corner. All of Thornton's 8 rebounds came in the 2H.
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Jun 12
Austin o26.5 PRA | DK -115
βFREE FRIDAYβ Play #1 | #Mystics
The Tempo still have a shot at being high in the Eastern Conference Cup standings. Temi Fagbenle is probable after missing 11 games, while Sabally is questionable due to a hamstring injury -- would lean to her being OUT here. Kiki Rice is still out.
The Tempo have allowed the 2nd highest rim frequency off the 2nd highest OPP APG, while also ranking 11th in OPP RPG. Floaters, Post/Hook, and Corner 3s are all shot types they rank B3 in, only ranking solid in at up-top defense provided by Sykes, which still is worse with Rice out of the mix for a bit.
Shakira Austin set up for a big one, and with Iriafen questionable it could be even more. She has a 24.9% usage on the year, and has played just two games against B5 defenses who are also below average vs Centers:β¨- 31 PRA in 28min vs TOR (44.2 FS)β¨- 38 PRA in 25min vs LAS (37.5 FS)
Rebounds vs Tempo:β¨- ONO 13 Rebβ¨- Cardoso 8 Reb (23min) | Stevens 10 Reb (24min)β¨- Jonquel 17 Reb | Stewart 9 Rebβ¨- Holmes 7 (15min)
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Jun 12
More WNBA GREENS π
Recap | 6.11.26:
0.55u
β
- Boston o24.5 PRA | -115 πͺΆ
β
- Shepard o27.5 PRA | -112 πͺΆ
β
- Clark o4 Reb
β
- Fudd o10 FGA
β
- Boston o31 FS
β
- Shepard o32 FS
β
- CC o12 RA
β
- Johannes u20.5 FS
β
- Hillmon u2.5 2PM
β
- Jackie o6 Ast
β - Copper o17.5 Pts | -112 πͺΆ
β - Satou u20.5 FS
β - Angel u36.5 FS
β - Cloud o13.5 PA
β - Billings o10.5 PR
My poor pairing capped upside here, but Satou's 5/5 from deep in 17min was cruel. Nice to end in green always -- though a bit too DFS heavy for my liking.
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Jun 12
Always nice to get the first!
Boston o24.5 PRA β
Jun 11
Letβs keep ROLLING π
Boston o24.5 PRA | DK -114
6.11.26 Play #1 | #NowYouKnow
Good game to promote here, as the top 2 PACE teams in the league and a game IND still looks to win big for Cup standings. CHI is already out of the cup, being 1-3 with a -37 differential.
Billings with Boston is posting some pretty historically low usage rates (11.6%, sub 7% in 2/L3), yet did just play 35min vs NYL before heavy foul issues against The Mystics. If she can play anywhere near that minutes mark in this spot, her lines are low.
The Sky are currently sitting dead last in OPP RPG by a wide margin, giving up both the most OREB and DREB per game. Chicago's rebound leak has been distributed as so:β¨- Morrow 17 Reb | Griner 8 Rebβ¨- Iriafen 11 Reb | Austin 8 Reb | Onye 7 Rebβ¨- Howard 7 Reb, Coffey 8 Reb, Miles 6 Rebβ¨- Sabally 6 Reb, Sykes 8 Rebβ¨- Howard 14 Reb, Miles 9 Reb, Coffey 7 Reb, Court 8 Rebβ¨- Shepard 10 Reb, Yueru 9 Reb (19min), Alanna 6 Reb (16min)β¨- Sabally 6, Sykes 7, Conde 6, Harrison 6β¨- Angel 17 Reb
These same bigs that have thrived on the glass have been equally dominant in overall fantasy production: β¨- Morrow 37.9 FS | Griner 40.1 FSβ¨- Iriafen 30.2 FS | Austin 35.1 FS (both <27min)β¨- Howard 38.9 FS | Coffey 37.6 FSβ¨- Sabally 49.2 FSβ¨- Howard 47.2 FSβ¨- Shepard 47 FS | Yueru 24.3 FS (20min)β¨- Sabally 28.7 FS (25min)β¨- Angel 43.4 FS | Hillmon 27.7 FS
This list just continues to grow, and we will be there every step of the way as it does. Of course, Boston in this 28-32min range is equally appealing. Boston has 30 PRA in 3 straight games with >22min vs Chicago.
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Jun 11
Sydney Taylor needs every single Rachel Banham minute
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Jun 11
Jessica Shepard o27.5 PRA | BO -112
6.11.26 Play #3 | #WingsUp
Will note that I officially played o32 FS, yet it moved.
Jessica Shepard facing a PHX defense that is a pure CnS funnel yet also rank B5 vs OPP RPG and APG. This feels like a great spot for Dallas offense to rebound here after facing the best defense in the league in Minnesota, and Phoenix sits just 11th. Shepard just produced 14 potentials, and in tangent Azzi Fudd should be good to go here from distance. She averages 3 makes per game from distance in those with 25 minutes vs non-T5 Spot Up defenses.
I will say that when PHX has played a quality big they have let up a ton of production:
- Fam 35.2 FS
- Howard 27.3 FS (23min) | Coffey 21.2 (22min)
- Jones 29.8 FS
- Jones 40.4 FS
- Angel 47 FS
- Hamby 52.5 FS
Think Shepard is worth a stab here. With stock and assist upside her FS just is superior.
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