These things are very desirable, but frankly, a lot of people in that business surely know the value of processing; the sad story is the economics. The economics.
Processing does not scale because the business case is extremely difficult. The industrial chain from raw cocoa seeds to finished products is long.
You need factories, machines, power, water, quality control, packaging, storage, logistics, working capital, distribution, brand, and patient capital. It is capital intensive.
Investors or entrepreneurs consider the viability of a project or business before allocating capital; it is not enough that a product has a higher selling price.
A profitable product (gross margins) may not be a profitable business (operating margins).
You will fight multiple battles at once if you are a manufacturer in Nigeria today, and these battles will limit your scale.
✑ Power is expensive
✑ Diesel is expensive
✑ cost of capital is high (and you are in an environment that hardly provides long-term capital. Very impatient capital, in fact).
✑ ports are not exactly there
✑ Logistics is expensive (look at the haulage and distribution costs of even the top manufacturing firms)
✑ The quality compliance required to make a meaningful product involves high costs
✑ On top of all of these, you then have very price-sensitive consumers.
Anyone who dabbles in such a gigantic project must be able to provide their entire infrastructure before it can work. And providing your infrastructure means some really, really serious capital—crazy one. And when you provide the infrastructure, there is still no guarantee that it will work.
Small deviation
Can we list the top manufacturing firms in Nigeria today? You can think of Nestlé, Nigerian Breweries and the likes. Those guys have been here since my father was born. And they have strong backing from foreign capital.
The ones we look up to, Dangote Cement and BUA Cement, needed the entire industry to be locked down for them to be truly successful—the same goes for Okomu and Presco.
The pattern is that Investors will only deploy capital when they are 100% sure that the industry will be locked down for them, and, as the evidence clearly shows, the value created by such industrialisation only expands inequality in society. The substance is that no concrete value is created.
Back to my gist
If we want cocoa factories (and many other manufacturing activities) to work or thrive, we must fix the conditions that cause factories to fail. At a minimum, fix the power issues.
In your free time, check out FTN Cocoa. Check out Multi-trex. Also, find out why Cadbury has not done more since it began doing business in Nigeria.
Nigeria sells raw cocoa at $8,000 a tonne. Processed into butter it earns $48,000. Made into chocolate it earns $240,000. 30 times the money, yet Nigeria is still choosing $8,000.