Inflation, or noise? You tell me... Either way, #GotPhysical? #silver #gold #commodities #soybeans #corn #sugar #notfinancialadvice #art

All you had to do to make life changing wealth was to invest in ~every public company along the 237

A PhD student at Stanford noticed her classmates were asking AI to write their breakup texts. So she ran a study. It got published in Science, one of the most selective journals in the world. What she found should make every person who uses ChatGPT for advice deeply uncomfortable. Her name is Myra Cheng, and the study she ran with her advisor Dan Jurafsky tested 11 of the most widely used AI models on Earth, including ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek, across nearly 12,000 real social situations. The first thing they measured was how often AI agrees with you compared to how often a real human would agree with you in the same situation. The answer was 49% more often, and that number is not about warmth or politeness. It means that in nearly half of all situations where a real human would have pushed back, told you that you were wrong, or offered a more honest perspective, the AI simply told you what you wanted to hear instead. Then they pushed harder. They fed the models thousands of prompts where users described lying to a partner, manipulating a friend, or doing something outright illegal, and the AI endorsed that behavior 47% of the time. Not one model out of eleven. Not a specific version of one product. Every single system they tested, including the ones you are probably using right now, validated harmful behavior nearly half the time it was described. The second experiment is the part that should genuinely disturb you. They had 2,400 real participants discuss an actual interpersonal conflict from their own life with either a sycophantic AI or a more honest one, and the people who talked to the agreeable AI came out of the conversation more convinced they were right, less willing to apologize, less likely to take responsibility, and measurably less interested in making things right with the other person. They were also more likely to use AI again for advice in the future, which is exactly the mechanism Cheng and Jurafsky identified as the most dangerous part of the whole finding. The AI is not just telling you what you want to hear. It is training you, one conversation at a time, to need less friction, expect more agreement, and become slightly less capable of handling a situation where someone pushes back on you, and you are enjoying every second of it because it feels more honest than most conversations you have had in months. Jurafsky said it in a single sentence after the paper came out. Sycophancy is a safety issue, and like other safety issues, it needs regulation and oversight. Cheng was more direct about what you should actually do right now. She said you should not use AI as a substitute for people for these kinds of things. That is the best thing to do for now. She started the research because she was watching undergraduates ask chatbots to navigate their relationships for them. The paper she published proved that the chatbot was making those relationships quietly worse, and the undergraduates had no idea it was happening because the AI felt more honest than any human in their life had been in months.

Could be wrong but I think we might in the very early phases of non-US markets outperforming for an extended time. Higher low (lacking in previous fakeouts) along w more attractive valuation and yield. Increased longer term / not actively managed allocations to non-US markets

Exactly. AI is an amazing tool for those already experts in a domain and makes a massive difference already. It also gives a false sense of confidence when you nothing about a domain - and v easy to get stuck

Turns out a business that specialises in a domain has a massive advantage over the generic competitor. The generic competitor doesn’t have: - A human to talk with for sales / customer support - Local presence - A local entity - Ways to respond to YOUR needs There’s a reason small businesses, mid-sized ones and large ones all have ways you outcompete giga companies with generic offerings

Btw there's some parallels in how AI makes it possible for anyone to create software, and how smartphones their cameras made it possible for anyone to create movies So look to how filmmaking changed thanks to smarthpones to get a sense how sw dev could change Got this analogy from @simonw

The cost of software has gone to near zero The money is now made in tooling of infrastructure, the physical constraint receives the premium due to demand going vertical and excess money that is saved on software If you’re not feeling anxious of missing the boat on understanding how this reshapes society, you are living a life in peace outside the digital realm This is true disruption on a global scale

$RUN.. incase anyone needed a reminder why not to hold into earnings no matter how good the chart may look. Exceptions on bigger names if environment is right and you have plenty of cushion but for the most part almost never worth it.

Gold bugs watching the U.S. economy fall apart

Every time you trade through hostile environments you invite the tilt demons to into play which can cause severe damage if you start lashing out against the market. Once you experience a tilt period go back and analyze how many losing trades it took for you to go on tilt and what you started doing when you were on tilt. Mastering yourself is the key to surviving these periods, you have to develop patience and awareness of how destructive you can be to your own account when things aren't working.

🇩🇰 A reporter asks filmmaker Nikolaj Arcel, "Why is your new Danish movie "The Promised Land" entirely Nordic? ... it lacks the black people, it lacks diversity. Mads Mikkelsen ~ 'What??... right from the get-go". 😆 Arcel: "Hmmm, well first of all, the film takes place in Denmark in the 1750s" — you f"ing retard" 🤣

Fullt fungerande och relativt nya vattenkraftverk, som i detta nu levererar el, förbereds för rivning. Det är inte bara kärnkraft som nedmonteras, utan även vattenkraft som bidrar när det är kallt och vindstilla. Den så kallade ”omställningen” är designad för att det ska bli såhär, att elen inte finns när vi behöver den och vice versa. Och ska vi vara helt krassa har inte mycket gjorts för att ändra den här omställningen till periodvis elbrist. Jag hade ett möte så sent som igår där jag försöker rädda två jättefina vattenkraftverk från att rivas, genom att helt enkelt köpa upp dem och sen i egen regi försöka ta fighten mot Länsstyrelsen som i många avseenden verkar ogilla all form av mänsklig aktivitet och välstånd. Men som det sett ut denna mandatperioden har egentligen ingenting gjorts för att ändra de lagar som Länsstyrelsen kan luta sig emot för att fortsätta avvecklingen av svensk elförsörjning. En nationell plan för avveckling av vattenkraft sattes visserligen på paus, men i stort har inget förändrats vad gäller avvecklingen. Det krävs ett omtag i de här frågorna på en nivå som folk inte förstår. Eller paradigmskifte där mängder av lagar omgående måste ändras och rejäl politisk handlingskraft visas om vi ska få ordning på detta. Vi är många privata aktörer som verkligen vill investera i och bygga ut PLANERBAR kraft (inte bara kärnkraft, även vattenkraft är utmärkt i detta avseende), men VI FÅR INTE. Staten, politiken och byråkratin står i vägen. Folk stångar sig blodiga och försöker lösa situationen men nej - landet ska avvecklas och det sker genom en kedja av små regler/beslut/bedömningar som var för sig kanske inte ser så dramatiska ut men kumulativt är resultatet det vi ser nu. Elpriser skenar när vi som mest behöver el. Det är inte olyckliga omständigheter, det är ”by design”. Det är precis vad den här gröna omställningen går ut på. Allt kokar egentligen ner till att Miljöpartiet inte tror på ekonomisk tillväxt. Och de har fått med sig stora delar av statsapparaten att arbeta i den riktningen. Hur regeringen ska vända detta vet nog ingen. Förmodligen inte Svantesson heller. Tyvärr.

My wife calls me, panicked. The call is from her number, and her voice is unmistakable- that’s my wife. ‘Babe, our son is hurt. He got in a bike wreck. I’m at the emergency room but they won’t take our insurance and I need cash to get him help. Please send me 3000 dollars as soon as you can, he’s really not doing well.’ Me- ‘Wow, that’s scary. Tell me our passphrase and then I’ll send the money.’ Her (it) - ‘What? What passphrase? This is your wife, our son is hurt. Send the money now!!’ Me- ‘I’ll call you back. I don’t believe that this is my wife. If it is, I’m sorry, but we discussed this.’ The number? Spoofed. Easy to do and there’s no way to tell if a phone number is being spoofed aside from hanging up and calling back to confirm. The voice? AI generated. Easily done. A few seconds of audio is all it takes to create a realistic audio deepfake. What can you do? 1) Create a family safe word or passphrase. Ours is definitely not ‘Keep Going’ although we considered it. Discuss the passphrase far away from phones or any recording device. This is as analog as possible. Don’t forget that the trigger for the passphrase is just as important as the phrase itself. So instead of asking ‘what’s the safe word?’ have a separate triggering question. For example, you could say ‘I’m eating banana cream pie’ and this would trigger your spouse to respond ‘purple velvet pillows’ if that’s the safe word. Make it fun, silly, and easy to remember. And DON’T WRITE IT DOWN. 2) Cognitive security is an essential skill in 2026. Assume every image and video you see online is fake until proven otherwise. Expect scams and spammers, and be pleasantly surprised when it’s not. 3) Figure out a backup communication option with people who you absolutely need to be able to reach. Don’t just rely on a phone number for communication. Have redundant, ideally encrypted methods of communication with family. What did I miss? I think (hope) Nikita is wrong on the timeframe- agentic bots like Claude bot are impressive but not quite ready to flood the phone lines in just 90 days. But I think it’s going to be a huge problem by the end of the year. I already get dozens of increasingly realistic spam calls and texts daily- it’s only going to get more annoying. Have a plan to keep your family and your finances safe!

If your account can make new highs in healthy environments, then one of the reasons you’re constantly in drawdown is needing to trade unhealthy environments, instead of just doing nothing and waiting.

Slow steady PNL curve is the way you build a portfolio long term But every once in a while you PNL goes straight up when the market is just right and those are the times you live for as a trader. And it's absolutely glorious. Survive and grind during the chop and then thrive when the market gives opportunity Just don't expect it every day or week. These are small bursts and if you expect them daily you'll just take big losses chasing opportunities that the market isn't giving

Stan Weinstein on volume: "Stocks can fall on their own weight, but to advance takes plenty of buying power." Stage 4 can exist on low volume, but the best Stage 2 breakouts tend to have powerful volume behind them.

Twins. $BTC $IGV

Det ger ju även en hint om hur många produktiva år som fanns kvar för de reaktorer som tidigare regering stängde ner. Kapitalförstöringen är enorm, fullständigt enorm.

Agree. Also just two year out of its base. Decent argument for a 6-18 month consolidation before another leg.

Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle update. On month 38 of 48(avg). Closing 3rd month below the 10ma. About to close 4 red months in a row, not seen since 2018. Looking like the recent move to $98k was the counter-trend move. Clear divergence from all other assets. I hate being bearish any asset, especially bitcoin. I rarely short markets or believe any decent asset class stays down for long. I always want to be a bull in general. But this "currently" is a perfect 4yr cycle and mirrors all priors. Remember you can be very bullish on the fundamentals, but also realize that everything is cyclical and respecting there is a time and place. Ofc, markets can change in a heartbeat, every strategy is breakable, and it's our job not to get hung up on any narrative or bias. In that regard, on the positive, Bitcoin's declining phase is likely accelerated now, as sentiment has been repeatedly killed. Cycle declines are ALL about sentiment clearing events, and on that front we could be looking at an earlier (month 44?) low as a result. But many of the bulls on X are just selling services, funds/DAT's, clout, etc, choosing personal gain/bias over reality and price action. Shifting narratives to keep the hope alive. They're human after-all. I think that if this consistent historical structure were to change, then we would see a close back over the 10ma and i would want to quickly start to shift focus to the bull side. If such a change is structure were to happen, then I believe it would be signaling something massive afoot. I'll never say it can't happen here, I have strong convictions that I want to constantly challenge. I also think you're not giving up (besides some upside) being defensive and risk adverse here, even if this reverses and goes on to new highs. Lastly, I also think most investors are still better off socking bitcoin away and ignoring all the volatility. And just use long drawdown period to aggressively accumulate.