Investor, writer, eco-conscious worrier. Pull up a chair for the stock and options ideas.

Joined September 2010
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Thoughts I've shared with new investors: 1. View the stock market as a savings account that you keep adding to. Regularly invest money you don't foresee needing for at least 3 years, and ideally that you'll keep invested for much longer.
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The few winning stocks you hold for 5, 10, 15 years will earn far more than any stocks you trade in and out of however many times.
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Analysts are saying $AAPL is merely playing catch-up in AI. They said the same thing about wearables, and then despite being some years “behind” competitors, Apple’s watch became the world’s top watch.
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I’m not saying Siri is about to become a top AI product. But Apple isn’t playing catchup the way you need to in a basketball game. Apple likes to leapfrog off work others have already done, to catapult forward.
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Short Option Income Update Alongside the long-term stock portfolio, options continue to provide income. These below expired last Friday and this Monday. $CLS has been a top option income provider for me so far this year, while $ADI and $DELL are newcomers to the portfolio (and may or may not be here to stay). 6/5-6/8/26 ended as income: $ADI $380, $382.50 puts $CLS $365, $370 puts* $DELL $400 puts (rolled at majority gain) $META $625 calls $V $330 calls Open: $DELL 6/12 $400 puts (rec'd $19) $AXP 6/12 $320 calls $NFLX 6/12 $93 calls $V 6/12 $330 calls $SPX 6/17 $6660/$5600 bull put spread $FIGR 6/26 $45 puts (should be rolled or accepted as shares) $ABNB 6/26 $130 puts/$140 calls short strangle $MSFT 7/10 $435 puts Friday's 4% decline in the Nasdaq was a reminder of how enthusiastic prices have been in recent weeks, and how quickly selling can materialize. In the face of rising interest rates, earnings growing so quickly at market leaders is probably the main factor lifting stock indexes. Yet, for most of those leaders, free cash flow is evaporating to investments in AI. That's fine for one-time investments, but how cash hungry will data centers and leading-edge AI be over the years? And will it pay off? Those remain the obvious questions that I don't need to repeat, but I can't help myself. *Friday's decline (a mere one-day decline!) did clearly force the hand of many investors. $CLS closed Friday at $371.48, easily above my $370 put strike. Yet, after the market closed, I was put 80% of the contracts written at $370, for a net buy price of $353. I should have never gotten those shares, but apparently someone was forced to raise cash. If that's any indicator of the risk in the market, we should listen to it. Margin levels are at a nominal high now, and up more than 50% in the last year. I need to watch my AI-related exposure now that Dell is in the mix alongside CLS and ADI (along with the big tech stocks owned). But with all three, I like that I can justify the valuations; ADI and Dell have diversified businesses; CLS has invested in infrastructure to build full rack systems, working tightly with customers in a way that builds loyalty and even co-dependence. Option premiums on AI-related stocks remain high, reflecting the risks that investors see in all the unknowns of the narrative. In writing puts (or calls) here, I'm not suggesting these stocks won't fall or rise, but estimating that the repeated premiums received can exceed the distance the stocks fall or rise over a given (long) time period. This was true of $APP, too, when I was steadily writing options on it. This has worked very well with CLS given its high premiums; it would have worked well with $CRDO. Currently, like CLS, DELL's options offer a lot of cushion on rolling. I put in a request to buy some IPO shares of energy provider $EROC, and received a tiny fraction of the shares asked for. Eight shares. But that's fine. It was just for fun. It starts trading today. I won't notice. Ha. No question that risks are elevated in tech stocks. Maybe the SPCX IPO will bring all that to a head, in some way. I do think at least some of this intense selling and volatility is due to SPCX positioning (crazily). But also, when you look at history, every large buildout that I've read about hits a wall at some point. It's just the nature of humans. We over-invest, and over-inflate prices in the process. In the case of AI, now that more debt is starting to be raised to fund the build, the risks are going up. Just carry on...?
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Because almost everyone has something to sell, and it's so relentless, most of us start to believe that buying things is an answer to life's issues.
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You could choose to be an optimist about the stock market your entire life, remove all the hardship of worry and angst, and you will very likely prove 100% right in the end — and usually along the way, too. It’s what index investors do.
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Jeff Fischer retweeted
From its inception in 1957 through today, the S&P 500 has hit 1,328 all-time highs, hitting a new high once every 19 days on average.
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More interesting than accumulating money is what you decide to do with it at some point.
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On SpaceX: so far, $TSLA has shown us how willing investors are to believe in Musk’s long-term ambitions. Tesla’s stock wouldn’t glide through such a steep decline in sales growth otherwise. Why expect different treatment for $SPCX?
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Wrote (sold to open) $400 puts on $DELL after such a surprising quarter, with a still reasonable valuation. As an aside, we will likely see more Dell stock upgrades on Monday. Short (sold to open) puts on $CLS and $MSFT were ending as full income today, and were rolled forward to new puts at $365 and $435, respectively.
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Two key things to consider when investing in a company: 1) How well does it control its own fate? Including: how diverse is its customer base? And how strong are its financials? 2) Which factors from your research will make you hold on during steep stock declines? If you don't internalize what is giving you lasting confidence in the company, you'll likely struggle to hold it during turbulence. And that's a losing outcome.
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Even after investing for more than 30 years, I'm still learning all the time, still make mistakes, and still invest far from optimally. Yet it's rewarding just the same.
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The solutions to the world’s largest problems are quite simple, but we don’t have the resolve to do it quickly (or maybe not at all). So now we hope the machines will find another way.
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Jeff Fischer retweeted
Replying to @BioCompounding
With covered calls (or short puts) that you'd rather not have exercised or need to roll, I tend to aim for a 0.35 or lower delta, so the odds of being exercised are not more than a third or so (35%). The minimum yield I always seek is (conservatively) at least 12% annualized. This old rule, started when only monthly options and LEAPs existed, still works for weeklies or dailies, of course. At any rate, for example, with $META at $611 now, the 5/29 $620 calls have a 0.34 delta and pay a 0.63% yield in three days ($3.90 on the $611 share price). Checks both boxes. If I'm fine actively rolling some covered calls or puts (and I usually am, unless I'm preoccupied in life), I'll accept a higher delta (higher odds of ending in-the-money) and higher yield, and then roll if need be.
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Despite the market hitting new highs, it’s been an agreeable year for covered call income on many companies. Expiring today: $MA $525 calls $TTD $23 calls $NLFX $94 calls $META $620 calls Puts are currently written on $ADI, $FIGR, $CLS, $MSFT, $LMND, $APP, $TSM, $SPX.
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Jeff Fischer retweeted
Enjoyed having @JRogrow on the Flyover Stocks podcast. We discussed a lot in our conversation, including position sizing, $APH and $NVDA's relationship, and pattern recognition. John's answer to my first closing question is worth sticking around for, as well.
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Jeff Fischer retweeted
Earlier this week, @morganhousel and I talked about money in our 40s for the Flyover Stocks podcast. The hour conversation flew by and we covered a lot of ground, including housing, spending on kids, and the art of writing. You can listen/watch the podcast wherever you get your podcasts or via Flyover Stocks.
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