@OptionsSly profile picture
Slylust @OptionsSly
Joined March 2022
  • Tweets 4,172
  • Following 0
  • Followers 845
1,110 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Slylust@OptionsSly
Mar 30
Replying to @FarrellM22
Mkts expectations are bottoms "here", my own expectations are not yet but soon (i prefer to buy undervalue not at par) Express this strategically 2 different ways QQQ - $281 cost, CVar* $200, max profit ~$1.9k, RoR ~550% SPX - $1.8K cost, CVar* - $3k, max profit ~$21k, RoR 1000% *Conditional value of risk (CVar) aka worst 5% of all losses
3
2,358
Furu was wrong? ~ 9% locked reduce principal risk to zero or close trade "Sly it crashed" Oh? 👀 P.S. Notice how efficient the mkts pricing was......in this time period Crazy how simple it truly is.....purely objective, mechanical edge -no emotion, no subjective measures
Slylust@OptionsSly
Jun 9
Your Furu has an opinion....so what? so does everyone How you trade an opinion is what makes you money Taking advantage of call skew (pic2) BPR - $10k, Zero risk to downside RoR max ~350% Max profit- ~100% of BPR (Unlikely) Min profit to downside- 10% Target 30-50% of max profit Pic3 - 21DTE on short strike Covers 1std to upside. no downside risk. Buyback upside risk for cheap on down move
1
3
209
Just so we get the power of compounding 3.5% return per month compounded is 50% on your net portfolio Not suggesting, placing your entire PF on a single trade duh.. 10% return on 5% risk on your portfolio, - ONCE in a 30day period = 0.5% net PF -3times = 1.5% net PF During low volatility I’m still around 15-20% deployed Recent high volatility periods ~40-60% ***IF you have enough capital and some basic understanding of first principles….please learn derivatives, it’s not that complex and experience can be gained quickly safely***
2
50
$QQQ - opinion Mkts will love MoU but upside for the week is already priced in BPR - ~$1900 Cvar - ~$400 RoR to Monday ~70% Red arrow 1std, Green 2std Trader covers ~ 3% & -4% IF it moves more than 4% by Friday, roll short strikes out in time Pic2- At expiry but gamma risk
1
2
266
Are you more bullish and want more upside coverage? BPR - 1.1k CVar - now ~600 instead of 400 RoR to M= 100% Covers 2std to 6dte 1std of 28dte Pic 1 to monday Pic2 expiry, gamma risk, be careful
2
140

ALT Side Eye Dog Meme GIF by dnewmie

Slylust@OptionsSly
May 21
IF kinetic war is over near term taking a stab on what could be a great R/R
3
4
346
Took a leap of faith BoJ would intervene kinetic war was over well before it might be....made me take bad entries in hindsight But by managing size on entry and sticking to math, its less painful IF you manage size on entry you're also managing risk- no need to "hedge"
2
94
Q's had 90 IVR....an index In 4 days we lost ~5% and SPY had IVR of 60 and you didn't deploy capital? Notice i said deploy capital not BTFD....there is a difference
3
268
Hahaha that was crazy..going to be a little nuts getting home, no one wants to leave lmao
1
101
Your Furu has an opinion....so what? so does everyone How you trade an opinion is what makes you money Taking advantage of call skew (pic2) BPR - $10k, Zero risk to downside RoR max ~350% Max profit- ~100% of BPR (Unlikely) Min profit to downside- 10% Target 30-50% of max profit Pic3 - 21DTE on short strike Covers 1std to upside. no downside risk. Buyback upside risk for cheap on down move
Slylust@OptionsSly
Mar 23
Replying to @OptionsSly
👀 back months ~10$ down move back months only moving down ~4 a year out Welcome to new regime!
1
2
550
Or BPR- ~$14.5k RoRmax- 50% Max Profit- $5.6k or ~38% of BPR Min Profit upside- $640 (5%) Pic1 - 21dte to STO strike Pic2 - Expiry (gama risk) Covers 1std to downside
2
91
👀for a different tweet when i found this.. Remember oil "air pocket" so much wasted time😅 We've literally financialized everything Built @kalshi @Polymarket w/depth & liquidity that would make them jealous With a vig so tiny, they would go broke I'm AN Efficient Mkt Theorist
1
4
193
Risk is controlled at entry Use liquidity & depth to guide your deployment, use volatility to tell you when, let math dictate when to adjust or close And have a little capital to start That's literally it Even when my first principles "edge" whittles away that's how i make $$$
1
5
126
Not a dunk on anyone....
2
96
When the time comes, holding cash is a crowded trade, credit is what’s going to be hard to find! That’s the trade Buffet sitting on cash, can always get unlimited credit regardless, not the same for you is it?
Barchart
@Barchart
Jun 8
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an all-time high $397 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 477 companies in the S&P 500 🚨🤑
4
194
Paul seems to have a fundamental misunderstanding of power dynamics Capital in our current system has significant power over wage earners because we allow it Taxing the rich like me is about reducing our oversized claims on resources and asset bubbles that it causes
Paul Graham
@paulg
Jun 6
If the key to becoming a billionaire is to exploit people, as some politicians claim, we at YC are idiots. We've spent the last 20 years choosing the wrong founders and teaching them the wrong things. Or maybe we do actually understand startups, and the politicians are wrong.
1
6
385
x.com/optionssly/status/2057…

Slylust@OptionsSly
May 21
Replying to @mattyglesias
Out of my respect for @talmonsmith I’ll engage, even if I don’t expect this interaction to be genuine Real resources are allocated however the public (hence govt in a democracy) Prices for resources are influenced by global mkt place How much or how little resources anyone gets is a policy choice just like NOW Ex: Australia exports gold and imports suits, the price in influenced by global mktplace Who digs for gold and who wears suits at home is a policy choice! Medicare SSI bond payments are just M4A UBI for older folks who now have can make a claim on real resources - a policy choice..
2
143
Derivative Greeks are dynamic not static..the articles makes a lot of assumptions I’m all for engagement tools for mkts but this is pointless for retail
Andy Constan
@dampedspring
May 8
How do you build your own tracker of leveraged etf rebalance flow 101 You need two pieces of data per index/commodity/single name you are tracking and one simple formula Data 1. The AUM of all leveraged ETF's that exist on the underlying of focus 2. The change from prior close Formula Using the leverage ratios 2x 3x etc and Kris's attached primer determine the amount of rebalance needed per fund (1) per change in price (2) Then sum up those flows across asset prices for a summary asset flow while noticing whether certain sectors dominate the flow Fwiw this is trivial and every decent hedge fund and market maker has built this already. The art is trying to understand the game theory of who is frontrunning the flow. (That I will not share)
5
313
Beta weighted to $SPY net PF positioning, for next 21 days (rolling July Opex cycle) and resulting PnL Extremely unlikely to ever get pico top unless i degen....which won't happen (on a PF lvl ) Gives you a general idea on where i expect the mkt to be in,👀where red starts 😉
2
146
2nd paragraph after "The Trade" is probably worthwhile for folks Its where i'll be heavily deployed for "the crash" IF/When it comes
Slylust@OptionsSly
Jun 5
Replying to @tylermacro10
tl:dr-I understand risk, opportunity ofc luck Anytime anyone is buying/selling any asset, all one is doing is trading risk I trade probabilistic outcomes i like to think my macro timing is great...yes yes i know, scroll up below linked thread if you like x.com/OptionsSly/status/2030… March bottom x.com/OptionsSly/status/2038… Commodity bottom x.com/OptionsSly/status/2045… ---- The Trade During an upheal risk is what folks pull back on. Semi/AI are just further out on risk curve relative to $SPY, w/greater volatility IF i want additional risk to carrying index short delta, i go to AI space but i do it strategically Similar to march bottom call above, pic1 = short delta, ~13 theta per day & long volatility (semis have call skew) per contract Covers 1std deviation on either side Cost 7.8k w/a potential to make max ~ 10% by June 26 (3 weeks) At which point you would roll short strikes (21DTE) to reduce gama risk or roll short strikes when it loses ~50% of its value Roll could be similar, turn into a calendar, call spread or ratio all depends on how bullish/bearish/neutral one is at that point in time "But Sly i want more oomph to downside" Sure Pic 2 Just remember to get something you got to give up something in return, in this case you're taking on more CVar * $SMH is not a trade suggestion just sample strategy* Sorry its long but traders love to talk i suppose
2
161
Bored…engagement trade 950 cost Risk ~20% (or 50% value of STO) Max profit (only at pin unlikely) 2k Target 25-50% of max profit Just playing odds nothing special here
2
1
199
BUST!
51
Load more