Over the last year the $SPX has been an average of 2% off its high, and is about to go into 5% pullback territory for the 1st time in 45 days. Of the sectors, $XLRE & $XLV are within 5%, and only $XLK is more than 10%:
After 7 trading days, this is the worst start for June for $SPX since 2022 (-2.56%), led by $XLK (-5.34%, 3rd worst ever) and $XLC (-3.64%, worst since began in 2018). Best start since 2019 for $XLV ( 3.41%):
Market sentiment remains cautious. AAII Bulls crept up to 36.3% as Bears retreated to Neutral, keeping the bull-bear spread negative for a 3rd straight week.
Is breadth sending a warning signal?
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Since the March 30th low, only 108 $SPX members (21%) have outperformed the index, 56 of which are tech stocks.
These are the best performers from the other sectors, led by $HUM ( 65% vs the index) & $CNC ( 63%) in Health care $XLV:
$XLK 19.8% in May & 43.7% over the last 2 months - its best 2 month period since 2022. $XLV ( 2.4%) & $XLY ( 2.1%) the only other sectors up in May. In fact, 5 made new all-time relative monthly lows against the $SPX:
Yesterday marked the 21st ATH for $SPX, 20th for Equal-Weight, and 11th for the Dow.
Of all sectors, only $XLK has made new highs since March. In fact, all 16 of its ATHs this year compressed into the last few weeks (post-April 16th). Sector counts:
$VIX closed below 16 for the 1st time since Jan 22nd.
After dropping below 16 (following a spike > 30), the $SPX is higher one month later 79% of the time, averaging a 1.1% gain (14 occurrences since 2000; 11 up, 3 down).
Yesterday marked the 19th all-time high this year for both the cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500.
However, it was only the 5th time they achieved it on the same day.
After 7 weeks of narrowing outperformance, 2/3rds of the $SPX members beat the index last week. Avg stock gained 2.5% vs 0.88% for the index. Of the megacaps, only $AAPL significantly outperformed:
$SPX saw 377 gainers to 125 losers last week. That net 252 is the highest in 5 weeks.
If this week's net A/D tops 112, the weekly A/D line breaks out to a new high.
This week's AAII Sentiment Survey sees the lowest number of bulls (31.7) since March and the biggest negative change in the Bull-Bear spread (-14.6) since November.
$SPX gained 1% with 36 stocks making new 1 month highs and 57 new 1 month lows. However, 45 of those 57 rebounded and closed higher, incl $CCL 9% off previous support. Will it break out of the descending triangle?
Bond yields are at multi-decade highs across other developed markets:
- Japan 30yr: all-time record
- UK 30yr: highest since 1998
- Germany 10yr: highest since 2011