Ceasefire markets again
The rules have been significantly revised. Even a humanitarian pause is now allowed.
Why this couldn’t have been done earlier instead of releasing dumb clarifications for over a year is beyond me.
Instead, we got a ton of hate and disappointment.
I’m glad to wake up and see that the ceasefire markets resolved as YES - that means the war in Europe has ended... or not? 🤨
Maybe in some imaginary Polymarket world that’s true, but in reality - it’s not.
Essentially, the market resolved solely because of a statement by Trump - the media picked up the loud headline, and the market settled.
Even though I didn’t hold a single share in those markets, the precedent itself is truly terrible.