Papai & husband 1st! Founder/Partner @ MD Commodities. South America/World agricultural commodities & macroeconomics analysis - Basketball lover & Coach 🤙🏻
Joined August 2011
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25 Apr 2024
How did the Brazilian Agricultural revolution happen?
Is the growth sustainable?
Where are #soybean #corn production & exports headed?
Much of what was said there - over 1yr ago - has already played out, i.e.:
✔️ “🇧🇷 will double 🇺🇸 soybean exports”
You don’t want to miss it
27 Jan 2023
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Pedro H Dejneka retweeted
Este analista revisa el escenario para el maíz safrinha brasileño. "Los recortes de producción en la región sur, actualmente entre 5 y 8 M t, podrían compensarse en gran medida con los aumentos en la región norte. Por cierto, el centro-norte está teniendo rindes propios de Iowa".
Apr 30
SAFRINHA CORN 🇧🇷: Update
Yes, there will be cuts to Safrinha
However, production cuts in Southern Belt, currently between 5-8 MMTs, could be largely offset by gains in the north…
Yields being achieved in the Center-North Belt are UNREAL! “Iowa corn” type stuff!
Result:
TOTAL 🇧🇷 CORN: 133 - 138 MMTs
Down from ~150-152 last yr
(USDA and CONAB both waaaayy too low on last yrs numbers)
Worth noting that 134-138 MMTs would still qualify for a top 2 or top 3 largest crop ever in 🇧🇷!!!
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Apr 30
SAFRINHA CORN 🇧🇷: Update
Yes, there will be cuts to Safrinha
However, production cuts in Southern Belt, currently between 5-8 MMTs, could be largely offset by gains in the north…
Yields being achieved in the Center-North Belt are UNREAL! “Iowa corn” type stuff!
Result:
TOTAL 🇧🇷 CORN: 133 - 138 MMTs
Down from ~150-152 last yr
(USDA and CONAB both waaaayy too low on last yrs numbers)
Worth noting that 134-138 MMTs would still qualify for a top 2 or top 3 largest crop ever in 🇧🇷!!!
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Apr 1
🇧🇷 to TRIPLE 🇺🇸 SOY EXPORTS?!?
Not yet, but soon…
🇧🇷 SOYBEANS $50 to $30/ton CHEAPER than 🇺🇸 beans into 🇨🇳
Any talk of “major” 🇨🇳 soy purchases from 🇺🇸 in “old crop” is pure “HOPIUM”
25/26 Soy Exports MMTs:
- Brazil: ~115
- US: ~45
By 26/27 🇧🇷 COULD TRIPLE 🇺🇸 soy exports!!!
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Mar 30
RECORD LENGTH in the SOYBEAN COMPLEX!!!
~ 430,000 net long position!
Markets often trade PERCEPTION, despite how far from REALITY it may be
How much longer can funds “run away from REALITY? No one knows…
… but the SPECULATIVE rubber band is getting quite stretched.
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Pedro H Dejneka retweeted
Mar 29
Fondos comprados en niveles récord en el complejo de la soja. "No habría un buen final para ellos. Reservas mundiales de soja por las nubes, las exportaciones de soja de EE. UU. nunca volverán a ser las mismas, el aceite de soja está sobrevalorado, se sembrará más soja este año".
Mar 25
Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal):
Funds RECORD LONG!
Why this shall not end well for them, again...
- Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH
- US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day")
- Soyoil story is overhyped
- US soy are increase
- etc...
The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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Mar 27
EPA / RVO / Soybean Oil / Meal / Soybeans
Pay Attention⚠️
The "speculative elastic band" is extremely stretched, without any actual fundamental justification whatsoever
Today's announcement brings nothing "new" to a market that "priced in" expectations well above REALITY
Mar 25
Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal):
Funds RECORD LONG!
Why this shall not end well for them, again...
- Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH
- US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day")
- Soyoil story is overhyped
- US soy are increase
- etc...
The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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Mar 27
RT @PHDChicago: #1: U.S. farmers produced an INCREDIBLE 430 MMTs of corn in 25/26!!!
That was over 40 MMTs OVER the previous record ~390…
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Mar 26
🧵U.S. CORN EXPORTS ON A TEAR!
25/26 U.S. Corn exports to set a NEW RECORD, by far!!!
US Corn Exports are on a tear!!! Should easily reach 87 MMTs in 25/26!!!
For reference, the US has only once exported over 70 MMTs, in 24/25 when it shipped 72.
In 22/23, it shipped out only 42 MMTs.
Hence,
The U.S. should export over DOUBLE the corn it exported 3 years ago!!!
While that is an incredible feat...
...it still won't be enough to prevent U.S. CORN STOCKS from likely reaching a new ALL TIME HIGH ~2.3 bb or nearly 60 MMTs!!!
here's why... 🧵
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Mar 26
#1: U.S. farmers produced an INCREDIBLE 430 MMTs of corn in 25/26!!!
That was over 40 MMTs OVER the previous record ~390 MMTs!!!
#2: FEED DEMAND is OVERSTATED by AT LEAST 10 MMTs!
That's correct. The USDA has plugged in a feed demand # completely out of touch with reality
So even though US 25/26 corn EXPORTS should be adjusted HIGHER by 3-5 MMTs...
FEED DEMAND should be REDUCED by AT LEAST
10-12 MMTs, when it's all said and done
Therefore, unless one believes there are MAJOR revisions for the 25/26 crop later in '26 (which is doubtful)...
... 25/26 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS should still hover ~2.3 - 2.4 bb or 58 - 61 MMTs, which would be a new ALL TIME HIGH!
FWIW, that is a VERY LARGE STOCK CUSHION going into 26/27
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Mar 25
Soybean Complex (beans, oil, meal):
Funds RECORD LONG!
Why this shall not end well for them, again...
- Soy world stocks RECORD HIGH
- US bean exports won't ever be the same (no, CH won't "save the day")
- Soyoil story is overhyped
- US soy are increase
- etc...
The SPEC BOAT is starting to crack... Lookout
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Mar 18
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 say it louder to the folks in the back, Chet! 🤙🏼👊🏼
Mar 18
No. Because:
(a) Farmers plan and order fertilizer two seasons in advance of planting, especially for large-scale crop production.
(b) September/October is when farmers ordered for this spring.
(c) Fertilizer is already on hand for this year's spring planting.
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Mar 18
🤦♂️Completely OUT of TOUCH headline and "analysis"
That said, as always...
the "FOOD CRISIS" headline sells
We are incredibly FAR from "food crisis" scenario in CORN and WHEAT
Now, if the conflicts lasts into next spring... that's a whole other discussion...
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Mar 5
Soybeans x Soybean Oil
YTD:
Bean Oil: 33%
Beans: 12%
The TAIL is literally wagging the dog...
Because... maybe... perhaps... we COULD see 2-3 MMTs more crush in US?!?
While US exports down ~20 MMTs in 5 yrs & SOY AREA to increase 5 million acres...
Makes perfect sense ;)
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Mar 4
Brazil Soybean Export Basis Update
1 picture = 1000 words
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Feb 26
RT @PHDChicago: "Does 🇨🇳 'need' 🇺🇸 soybeans"?!?
Don't take it from me...
Take it from Grok ;), who btw is absolutely spot on
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Feb 25
"Does 🇨🇳 'need' 🇺🇸 soybeans"?!?
Don't take it from me...
Take it from Grok ;), who btw is absolutely spot on
No, China doesn't strictly "need" US soybeans. Its ~100 MMT annual import demand is met mostly by Brazil (87 MMT in 2025 amid record 180 MMT production). US share dropped to 7 MMT due to 2025 tariffs/trade tensions.
They buy US beans for diversification (weather/logistics risks from Brazil), quality edges (often better oil/protein specs, lower moisture), and seasonal timing. Trade deals target 25 MMT in 2026, but with Brazilian prices cheaper and recent tariff shifts, actual volume may fall short unless economics align. US exports can shift to other markets, but China remains key buyer overall.
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Feb 25
SOYBEAN Exports to 🇨🇳 Jan-Dec '25:
🇺🇸 7 MMT
🇧🇷 87 MMT
80 MMT gap; largest ever!
*Production gap: 0 to ~65 MMTs since 2018
Begs the question:
Does CH really "need" US beans?
CH has to buy at least 20 MMTs in '26 (possible, not probable), or US exp. falls <1.5bb or <41 MMTs
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Feb 24
Brazil SOYBEAN yields "off the charts"!!😮
"96 bpa AVERAGE?!?"🤔
**50% harvested by early March
✔️90 bpa (100 bags/ha) common in multiple properties in Center-North
✔️70's & 80's bpa common in vast regions
Crop: 182-185 MMTs
National yield: ~57/58 bpa (despite issues south)
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