Public Impact Analytics Science Lab at @Harvard ๐ Advancing and applying analytics for solving societal problems with public impact | Director @Soroush_Saghaf
.@PIASLab director, @Soroush_Saghaf, recently lead a workshop on artificial intelligence, machine learning, and their implications for public policy
Thank you to everyone who participated!
๐จ New research: Can LLMs be used for ๐ฌ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง-๐ฆ๐๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ in complex, ambiguous environments?
Our new paper โ Large Language Models for Sequential Decision-Making: Improving In-Context Learning via Supervised Fine-Tuning โ shows the answer is yes, and the gains are substantial.
Most AI decision-making research assumes the world is fully observable and unambiguous. Real-world problems โ especially in domains such as healthcare โ are neither. Our framework fine-tunes a pretrained LLM (Llama-2-7B) on offline, oracle-labeled trajectories so it can tackle MDPs, POMDPs, and Ambiguous POMDPS (APOMDPs): settings with partial observability and model ambiguity.
๐ก Key findings:
โ SFT slashes the optimality gap from 43% โ 15% vs. random baselines in long-horizon MDPs
โ In partially observed and ambiguous environments, fine-tuned LLMs outperform ICL-only baselines and DPT by up to 15 percentage points
โ On the Darkroom navigation task, our model achieves ~95% of oracle performance
โ Robust to out-of-distribution conditions โ strong generalization without retraining
๐ On the theory side, we interpret the fine-tuned attention mechanism as implicitly estimating optimal Q-functions, and derive an end-to-end suboptimality bound that cleanly separates in-context estimation error from training-length bias.
This matters deeply for use in areas such as healthcare, where experimentation is costly or unethical and offline observational data are abundant. Our goal: give clinicians AI systems that reason under genuine uncertainty โ not just clean textbook settings.
Huge congratulations to my current and former lab members Minmin Zhang and @aghaei_sina on this work!
๐ Read the paper: arxiv.org/abs/2605.09009#ArtificialIntelligence#MachineLearning#LLM#ReinforcementLearning#Healthcare#DecisionMaking#Research#Sequential
Excited to present my *job market paper* at the Annual @POM_Society Conference 2026 this Sunday morning!
โThe Impact of Batching Advanced Imaging Tests in Emergency Departmentsโ
Joint work w/ @Soroush_Saghaf, @robert_huckman, @nhodgsonem, and Joshua Baugh. 1/n๐งต
โLetโs talk about dataโ๐
#Analytics#Sience (including #AI as one of its many branches) can help you improve the world and solve real-world problems. If you are interested, check out this short video and the book (Amazon: a.co/d/01AGVvdZ).
๐บ๐บ: youtube.com/shorts/MU9MS-WSOโฆ
AI in healthcare needs to move beyond prediction โ decision-making.
@Soroush_Saghaf will share how causal AI โcentaurโ models (human algorithm) can improve clinical care at the CPA Speaker Series @UAlbertaBiz.
๐ Apr 10, 2026
๐ 10โ11:30 AM
๐ BUS 4-06
Coming up on Friday, get ready for the student-led AI Symposium at Harvard Kennedy School. Leaders from government, industry, and academia will gather to explore the future of #AI policy, governance, and innovation. Discover more here - hks-ai-symposium.com/#home
Did you know that @Arnold_Ventures has a standing RFP for causal research proposals related to crime and the criminal justice system? Send us your ideas! We aim to get you an answer fast (within 3 months).
All we need from you is a 3-page LOI that describes the intervention you're testing and the research design you're using.
(Link below.)
Glad to see our research being used in a U.S. Supreme Court filing inย U.S. Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine. ๐
@HarvardBizGov