The Real-Time Housing Market. Powered by @ParclLabs | Support: @ParclHelp
Joined May 2021
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Real Estate Markets are officially live on @Polymarket đźŹ
Predict home values, exclusively powered by Parcl data.
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Everyone’s talking about the $SPCX IPO today and the ~4,400 new millionaires it just created.
We skipped the stock chart and looked at the housing markets around its sites instead.
Hawthorne (HQ): 20% over the past year, at an all-time high.
El Segundo next door: 8%.
Brownsville (Starbase): still below peak and cooling.
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7 days left in the competition.
Come see what housing markets look like on V4 devnet.
This is a live order book for New York City real estate. Real bids, real asks, updating by the second.
Thirty seconds of what housing price discovery looks like when you let people take a side.
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Ken's right, and it cuts both ways.
The tenant fears rent jumps. The landlord fears flat rent while taxes, insurance, and upkeep keep climbing.
Each is exposed to rent moving the way they don't want. A market lets you take the other side of your own risk.
That's the kind of housing risk Parcl is built to let you take a side on.
Jun 10
Good tenants. Same rent. 7 to 8 years.
Sounds great. Until you look at the expenses.
Utilities up. Property tax up. Property management up. Insurance up. Everything up.
If rents stay flat while expenses rise, cash flow shrinks every single year. It has to.
And after 7 to 8 years of no increases, that rent could easily be $100, $200, $300, even $400 below market.
That is not loyalty to the tenant. That is a slow bleed on the asset.
The right move is simple. At lease renewal, raise the rent by a small amount. Keep it under market rate. Tenants expect it. It keeps the business alive.
Small steady increases over time beat a decade of silence followed by a massive gap.
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Our @Polymarket US housing markets settle monthly right now.
Should we run longer ones too? What would you actually take a position on?
41%
Monthly (keep it)
35%
Quarterly
18%
Half-year
6%
Yearly
17 votes • Final results
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He's right, nothing stops this.
~$90 trillion traded on perps last year. Oil, gold, stocks, crypto.
Housing's the biggest market of all.
We've spent years building the rails for it. V4 is where it scales.
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IMPORTANT NOTICE: V3 orderly wind-down is reaching its conclusion.
Please withdraw your LP funds from the V3 pool at your earliest convenience. June 30 is the deadline.
Jun 9
V3 LP withdrawals close June 30.
If you still have funds in the V3 LP pool, please complete your withdrawal as soon as possible.
A 21-day countdown is now in effect as V3 enters its final wind-down phase.
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Parcl retweeted
Jun 6
The immense irony here is that perps - in particular real estate related perps - would have perhaps *helped prevent* an 07/08 style crisis, which cascaded in large part because nobody knew who held what at what price and nobody got liquidated promptly (completely solved in perps)
Fascinating quote from CME Group CEO Terry Duffy, whose own company operates a prediction market exchange.
Duffy is unhappy with Kalshi getting a green light on perps.
Via @business: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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These are homes where the seller already cut the price and still can’t find a buyer.
Price cuts are supposed to unlock demand. In these metros, they clearly aren't.
Source: @ParclLabs
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A realtor’s entire income is a leveraged bet on their local housing market.
The problem is not just the slowdown. It is having no hedge.
Your income, your pipeline, your net worth all tied to the same market at once.
That is exactly the gap Parcl is built around.
Jun 4
The slowest housing market in decades is stretching into its fourth year, and even real-estate agents who made it this far are reaching a breaking point. on.wsj.com/4o7Tabu
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V4 devnet is live. Grab some test USDC and give it a spin:devnet.v4.parcl.co
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