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A wise mentor once told me: "Before you play the game, study the winners. If you don't want their life, don't play their game."

Seneca hits you with a brick. Pay attention to your life.

This is the greatest myth in everyone's mind. Gold has no utility in any industry or manufacturing. The day 150 cr Indians take out their gold to buy stuff from it, it's perceived value will collapse. It will never work as a hyperinflation hedge in India.

In 2026, as an Indian who lives in India and has to stay here forever, the greatest gift you can give your child is NOT bringing him/her in this world. No wonder, the wolves are worried because the sheep aren't breeding.

YouTubers be like “wake up at 4am and run, that’s alpha!” No, it’s not. Look at apex predators; they’re all lazy. Bears hibernate, lions sleep all day. You know who wakes up at 4am and runs? Squirrels.

There's no manual to life

Be happy with the ordinary. If you can’t find peace in a quiet cup of coffee, no amount of fame, wealth, or status will ever feel enough. Learn to sit with yourself first. Doing nothing. No distractions. No stimulation. Just you. Let the restlessness settle. Let your mind slow down. Then add a coffee. A book. A walk. And you’ll realize that the life you were chasing was already here. In the ordinary little moments.

My exit poll! As I leave #Bengal, it would be a disservice not to say this: I have come to deeply admire the way women inhabit space here. There is a quiet, almost subconscious elevation of women as independent beings . something that stands in stark contrast to the entrenched misogyny that still finds resonance across much of northern India. Perhaps it stems from a cultural understanding of shakti. A form of empowerment that manifests here in ways both subtle and profound, unlike anywhere else in the country, even in the south. Any woman journalist who has covered political rallies across India will recognize the difference immediately. Other states, a crowd is not just a logistical challenge, it carries risk. the inevitability of wandering hands, the violation masked by chaos. Here, the crowds are no less dense, the air no less heavy with sweat and alcohol—but the hands, for the most part, do not grope. Men step aside to make way. When contact happens, as it inevitably does in chaos, there is visible embarrassment rather than entitlement. What you encounter is not chivalry, but something far rarer: equality. And equality feels far more meaningful. Was never a fan of chivalry in any case :)  There is more. Women politicians across party lines campaign with a striking freedom, aggressive, sharp, unapologetically irreverent, often using what would elsewhere be labelled as ‘masculine’ rhetoric. In most states, such behaviour would invite judgment, even censure. Here, it is met with acceptance,  applause. What feels liberating to an outsider is, in Bengal, simply normal. What we frame as empowerment  here is a cultural undercurrent. I have covered four elections in this state, and each time I have returned with the same sense of awe. Bengal, meanwhile, ambles on with a certain bemusement, as if unaware of what sets it apart. But it is a big deal. And perhaps the most remarkable part is that Bengal does not think so. Governments will come and go. One can only hope that this constant endures, not just how Bengal sees its women, but how, in many ways, it doesn’t. ♥️♥️♥️

There's an obvious gap in the markets. Domestic investors are buying thousands of crores SIPs in Indian indices/stocks. BUT, most advisors and experts are saying go global - where there aren't any simple (index fund, not ETF) products. You face hurdles like 'closed for investment', or taxation documentation. All this for a Rs5,000/month SIP isn't worth it. Which is why higher ticket investments are going global while the lower ticket sizes do not have any option so local.

Too general. It’s a massive, diverse continent. But in general, the African countries who negotiate with China and build their own domestic manufacturing bases, in partnership with China, have a brighter future, rather than simply selling resources while China manufactures the end product and captures all the value. The birth rates are the highest in the world. The resources are the richest in the world. That’s a serious opportunity in a multi polar world for the countries that tie their resources to domestic manufacturing and a sovereign wealth fund. The funding is available to the ones that can navigate that. That’s a seriously bright future.

These kind of stories were perfect narrative builders for providing exit liquidity to FIIs. Again i repeat, for people who started investing after 2021, equity returns over next 25-30 years will be like LIC policy returns.

#Nifty Although I expected 2026 and 2027 to be good for the Indian markets, ending with a mega crash in 2028. But the rapid escalation of events has forced me to rethink my forecast. So, if everything that could go wrong , goes wrong in 2026, Nifty could bottom around 15XXX.

Strange situation where we await a statement from Iran to check whether there's any truth to what US president is saying.

Foreign Capital May Not Return Soon: Protect Your Downside 1. 85% of India's capital outflows going to: Korea, Taiwan, China 2. Their 2026 Forward Earnings: 2X/3X of India 3. Their AI/Semicon Growth Supercycle vs. India’s IT Slump 4. Rupee fall erodes FII/FDI capital DATA: Where Is the Money Going? a. Over ₹1 lakh crore FII capital exited India in 2026 (YTD). b. 60% to Korea & Taiwan: AI/Semiconductor supply chain stocks c. 25% to China: Bottom-fishing in undervalued tech stocks d. 15% to “Safe Havens”: U.S. Treasuries and Gold 2025 Actual Earnings Growth India (Nifty 50): 8.1% Korea (Kospi): 76% Taiwan (TWSE): 27% China (CSI 300): 12% 2026 Earnings Growth (Est.) India (Nifty 50): 9% Korea (Kospi): 130% Taiwan (TWSE): 22% China (CSI 300): 13% NOTE: Estimates are from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bernstein reports. 2026 Forward P/E Comparison India (Nifty 50): 18.1x Korea (Kospi): 8.8x Taiwan (TWSE): 19.7x China (CSI 300): 13.9x NOTES: a. Even after the recent sell-off, India still remains one of the most expensive markets in Asia. b. Korea has seen an earnings explosion in memory chips, but that market still offers deep value to investors at 8.8x forward P/E. c. Taiwan is getting expensive, but AI/Semiconductor dominance of Taiwanese companies and TSMC’s pricing power is still a great attraction. Estimated earnings growth of Taiwan in 2026 is 2.5x of India. d. China is no longer at “distressed” price levels of 2024, but it is still fundamentally 25% cheaper than India. P/B Ratios March 2026 India (Nifty 50): 3.14x Korea (Kospi): 0.90x Taiwan (TWSE): 2.2x China (CSI 300): 1.45x NOTE: India is the world’s most expensive major market on P/B ratio basis. India’s price-to-book is 1.5x of Taiwan, 2.5x of China, and 3.5x of Korea. In other words, it is 3.5 times more expensive than Korea for every unit of net asset value as of March 2026. KOREA a. Landmark domestic corporate governance reforms combined with a global semiconductor growth supercycle have created a rare “double-alpha” opportunity for investors. b. A stunning 130% earnings growth projected for KOSPI in 2026, led by Samsung and SK Hynix. c. Korea’s forward P/E of 8.8x is half the valuation of Indian large caps as of today. TAIWAN a. Investors are moving away from AI software/LLM builders to AI hardware (semiconductors and server infrastructure) where Taiwan dominates. b. TSMC alone controls 70% of the market share, with gross margins of 62%. c. Taiwan 50 Index with an estimated earnings growth of 22% at a PEG ratio of just 0.9x makes it twice as attractive as Indian large caps on a growth-adjusted basis. CHINA a. China’s industrial output in Jan-Feb, 2026 jumped by 6.3%, beating estimates by far. b. High-tech FDI increased by 20.4% following the government’s massive consumption stimulus package in late 2025. c. As of March 2026, MSCI China trades at a forward P/E 11.9x, representing 48% discount compared to MSCI India’s 23x. This 48% valuation gap is at a decade-high, leading to an FII pivot towards China. (Foreign investors use MSCI benchmarks.) INDIA a. With 85% dependency on oil imports, current account deficit (CAD) widening, rupee getting weaker, and no tech exports hedge, India presents an asymmetric risk (from the viewpoint of foreign investors.) b. China is energy-secure, while Korea & Taiwan’s high-margin tech exports effectively subsidize their increased oil import bills. c. IT service exports, which is India’s solitary global competitive edge, is getting threatened by AI. Legacy coding tasks are getting automated. ENDPIECE: Don’t Fight Mean Reversion Don’t believe vested interests whose careers are built on the thesis of “Stocks Only Go Up.” The world has shifted from the era of “Growth at Any Price” (GAP) to “Growth at a Reasonable Price” (GRP). That’s what has hit India. Now either India delivers exceptional earnings growth in 2026 to justify its P/E multiples, OR the AI growth bubble bursts worldwide. Until then, play defensive, avoid FOMO, and wait for the loose ball. Your time will come. @arabicatrader

If you ask the grass, the zebra is the monster and the lion is the protector.

USA 🇺🇸 This is Richard. He is an elderly man. He delivers food to get by since his wife lost her job. And yet the US government would rather spend $1 billion a day on lobbing bombs into Iran than actually putting Americans (like Richard) first.

''When Small men begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set.' - Lin Yutang

Because the Strait of Hormuz is not U.S. private property!

Going to leave you with this tonight: The best thing you can do for yourself is actively increase your surface area for luck to hit you. Go outside, travel more, go to new cafes, museums, events, take a new route home, go for hikes, see cities, countrysides, take your notebook, speak to people, ask questions, start businesses - go on more side quests. You can literally just do things, and the more you do, the more serendipity and synchronicity will find you. Night gang.