80% of my time in AI/Q/PAI/Space Stocks these days. One of the very few protocols I continue to utilize in crypto along side Hype/xyz etc is @pear_protocol Incorporating the best domain-trained agent in the space imo, combined with what essentially every large trader on here says they are doing - Pair trading, gives every opportunity to have been shorting many crap tokens and long momentum stocks. All this now with @agent_pear in TG with auto-execution. A whole host of products continue to be released by a team that is still building fast. Just a great overlooked product with what I believe is the highest percentage of profitable traders, because it's made easy.

So I finally got round to trying @pear_protocol ‘s updated AI Pear Trading Suite. In short: I’m fucking stunned. In TG I told it to scan all assets on HL and pick the pair trade it thinks will yield the best return in the next 8 hours. It found XMR/XLM, explained in detail why, gave me recommended SL and TP. But then it got silly… with 1 click it executed it, placed all orders and 150 seconds later the position had hit TP for $200. I was taking a piss and the agent took its own idea and used my money to make more money. I feel excited and emasculated and scared and curious all at once. Can’t wait to delve deeper into the reasoning it uses and see just how capable this thing can be. Pear team continue to build and ship like no one else in the space and to boot they’re running HYPE mystery box prizes for the first 150 people using this agent alongside the existing HyPear point season with HYPE rewards. If you’re not pair trading in this environment with all these perks, what the fuck are you even doing? 🍐

1) A large purchase of BTC May29 75k Puts in isolation is a signal, but should not induce unease. But add a simultaneous outisized purchase of ETH May29 2100 Puts and alarm bells might ring. Net $500m notional, $6.5m premium, executed within a brief period as Spot neared lows.🧵

"I haven't seen a real new idea in trading in at least 15 years." Tom Costello (@tcoste110) ran money at Tudor, Moore Capital, and Caxton. Built one of the first NLP-driven equity systems in 2003. 20 years managing capital, never had a down year. "Comparing what a retail trader does to what a quantitative hedge fund does is like comparing driving a bus on the New Jersey Turnpike to winning a Formula One race." We cover: - His hot take: no genuinely new trading idea in 15 years — only better people doing the same things faster - Why everyone in quant finance is a genius — and why that makes you ordinary, not special - Crypto is "super smart guys cosplaying at finance" — built for retail, which is exactly why it's the easiest money in finance right now - Why AGI won't beat the hedge fund industry — all the readily-capturable alpha is already captured - The status trap: why the path that made Paul Tudor Jones a billionaire won't work for the kid trying to copy it in 2026 - His friend the investment banker who'd quit it all to run a 10-employee ambulance supply company worth $150M - Why excitement is "wildly overbid" in finance — and why wanting an exciting trading job is itself a disqualifier - The most honest end of the financial industry — and why the media has it exactly backwards Thanks so much to Tom for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Building institutional credibility for early-stage managers 03:01 The Pareto distribution of hedge fund returns 04:25 Applying the Unified Field Theory of Finance to fair value 08:14 Trading against human incentives in a deterministic market 13:54 Why allocators don’t steal alpha from prospective PMs 25:16 Evaluating career edge in quantitative finance for 2026 30:48 Paul Tudor Jones and the art of game selection 33:42 Analyzing the economic viability of starting a new fund 35:16 Identifying common retail pitfalls: Mean reversion and arbitrage 38:55 Why there hasn't been a new trading idea in 15 years 50:33 Managing tail risk: Physics vs. deterministic financial distributions 59:10 Career pathing for PMs after a fund blow-up 1:07:53 SBF and FTX: Credibility vs. the "Founder-Genius" archetype 1:13:44 Establishing proof-of-concept through audited multi-year returns

🚨 LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER IS OFFICIALLY BETTING BILLIONS THAT THE AI HARDWARE BOOM HAS PEAKED. The exOpenAI researcher who was fired for warning that China could steal their AI models then turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months just filed his Q1 2026 13F with the SEC. One quarter ago he had $5.5 billion in disclosed equity exposure. As of March 31, 2026 that number is $13.67 billion. The portfolio nearly tripled in a single quarter across 42 positions. He initiated $7.46 billion in put options against every major semiconductor company between January 1 and March 31, 2026. None of these positions existed in his Q4 2025 filing. - SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF PUT: $2.04 billion - Nvidia PUT: $1.57 billion - Oracle PUT: $1.07 billion - Broadcom PUT: $1.01 billion - AMD PUT: $969 million - Micron PUT: $583 million - Taiwan Semiconductor PUT: $535 million - ASML PUT: $494 million - Intel PUT: $159 million For the past 18 months Aschenbrenner was betting only on electricity, memory, compute, and physical data center infrastructure. That made him one of the best performing fund managers in the world. And his long stock book still reflects that exact same thesis. - Bloom Energy: $878 million - SanDisk: $724 million - CoreWeave: $556 million - IREN: $401 million - Core Scientific: $389 million - Applied Digital: $320 million - Riot Platforms: $142 million - CleanSpark: $104 million - Solaris Energy: $62 million - T1 Energy: $43 million - Bitfarms: $38 million - Bitdeer: $29 million - Power Solutions: $26 million - WhiteFiber: $20 million - Babcock and Wilcox: $19 million - SharonAI: $18 million - ProPetro: $13 million - Hive Digital: $6 million He is also running call options on specific names at the same time as his puts, which means he is not simply betting against semiconductors everywhere. - Micron CALL: $422 million - SanDisk CALL: $388 million - Taiwan Semiconductor CALL: $354 million - CoreWeave CALL: $140 million - Bloom Energy CALL: $55 million This means he believes the companies supplying power, storage, and compute to the AI industry still have years of growth ahead of them. But the chip companies that Wall Street has been buying for the past two years at record valuations have already priced in everything good that is going to happen to them. The man who has been right about every major AI trade for the past 18 months is now betting that the biggest names in semiconductors are about to fall. If his track record means anything, the chip stocks Wall Street has been buying for the past two years may be in serious trouble.