Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen. quincel.bsky.social
Joined May 2008
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Pleased to say I'm now writing politics articles for Betfair, starting with this piece on Makerfield and what parties with Restore's polling actually tend to deliver. This time could be different, though.
@BetfairExchange
betting.betfair.com/politics…
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AbbVie raises 2024 profit forecast on strong sales of key drugs Skyrizi, Rinvoq reut.rs/4fq7Ay1
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1 Aug 2024
The Senate/White House splits in polls are still eye-popping with Harris on the ballot paper.
1 Aug 2024
New AARP Ohio Poll
Sen:
- (D) Brown: 46%
- (R) Moreno: 42%
Pres (H2H):
- (R) Trump: 52%
- (D) Harris: 42%
Pres (Full Ballot):
- (R) Trump: 48%
- (D) Harris: 39%
- (I) Kennedy: 9%
- (L) Oliver: 1%
- (G) Stein: 1%
GBM:
- Republicans: 49%
- Democrats: 40%
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30 Jul 2024
If, and it's a big If, Harris maintains positive approval ratings up to election day you'd have to suspect that would translate to a solid popular vote win. Trump has never been a very popular candidate, he was just more popular than Biden who had awful approvals by mid-2024.
29 Jul 2024
#New Favorability Poll - 🔵 Harris
Favorable 50% ( 4)
Unfavorable 46%
Highest Favorable rating in the whole election cycle for any candidate, 11% swing in Favor of Harris
Morning Consult C
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25 Jul 2024
Not a poll but a survey. Useless data.
New frontrunner emerges in Tory leadership race, poll reveals
gbnews.com/politics/tory-lea…
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25 Jul 2024
Surveys let anyone who wants to answer and don't attempt to get a balanced sample or weight to correct the sample bias. Polls have statisticians work to try and fix those issues.
Polls have a strong if imperfect record of accuracy. Surveys are bunk.
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25 Jul 2024
A survey isn't even 'Better than nothing'. They are often actively misleading by grossly over-representing some viewpoints. They often make the reader actively less well informed.
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25 Jul 2024
With all the twists and turns Tory leadership races tend to have Badenoch is much too short. Maybe the right favourite, but more like 4/1 for my money. 3/1 absolute max.
25 Jul 2024
Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:
Kemi Badenoch: 2/1
Robert Jenrick: 3/1 ✅
Tom Tugendhat: 5/1 ✅
James Cleverly: 6/1 ✅
Priti Patel: 10/1
Mel Stride: 40/1
Suella Braverman: 40/1
✅ = Declared Candidacy
Via @oddschecker, 25 Jul.
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25 Jul 2024
Not sure I see Tugendhat at that price either.
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22 Jul 2024
I kinda feel it will hinge on one question: Are people deciding based on her or him?
Trump won an election where the public were focused on his opponent, and lost one when they focused on him. I suspect the same dynamic will mostly apply here.
22 Jul 2024
Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign will hinge on 3 key questions:
1. Can she name any of her successes as VP?
2. Can she relate to swing-state voters?
3. Can she win over anti-Trump voters who didn’t want to vote for Biden?
I linked up with @TheLauraCoates to talk more.
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21 Jul 2024
Sad news for my bet, but total vindication yet again that media access is way worse than it pretends to be. A load of articles today and yesterday that he was digging in, no-one seems to have gotten this leak a few hours ahead.
20 Jul 2024
48 hours on from my 2.7 bet on Biden nominee, I don't feel great but I thought I'd feel worse. Some interesting reporting today that Biden remains very unmoved, but you can never trust these behind-the-scenes stories too much.
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21 Jul 2024
Well there we go. Biden quits after all.
Says he will stay as President.
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21 Jul 2024
Also doesn't explicitly endorse Harris, interestingly.
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20 Jul 2024
48 hours on from my 2.7 bet on Biden nominee, I don't feel great but I thought I'd feel worse. Some interesting reporting today that Biden remains very unmoved, but you can never trust these behind-the-scenes stories too much.
18 Jul 2024
And as the odds hit almost 3/1, my regret is right on schedule. Let's see where we are in 48 hours though.
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19 Jul 2024
I know there are more dramatic markets right now, but Luke Littler being 3/1 favourite for SPoTY seems very short to me. Darts has a poor SPoTY record, he's not had massive coverage since early in the year, we've got the Olympics to come, etc.
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19 Jul 2024
I admit it, at this stage I want Biden to remain the nominee in no small part to see how the party handles getting behind him post-convention once the campaign has to be fought. Trump would surely engender a lot of unity, but would be awkward interviews for a lot of people.
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19 Jul 2024
Like the whole 'Didn't you try and get Corbyn elected' attack on Starmer but in reverse and with a matter of weeks between the halves of the equation.
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18 Jul 2024
Must admit this would be remarkable reporting if Biden remained the nominee. Never say never but it seems over.
18 Jul 2024
BREAKING NEWS: Multiples sources outline the apparent state of play on Biden at this time:
* plans to announce withdrawal from nomination as early as this weekend, with Sunday most likely
* Jon Meacham polishing up remarks
* Biden with NOT resign the presidency
* Biden will NOT endorse Harris
* open convention with Harris and about 3 others
* super delegates will not be allowed to vote on 1st ballot
* Harris is vetting at least four possible running mates, including Andy Beshear and possibly Shapiro
More on this fluid situation at 6pm ET LIVE on YouTube @2waytvapp
youtube.com/live/PGfTut14i40…
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