Joined January 2022
- Tweets 364
- Following 372
- Followers 976
- Likes 554
86 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Apr 2
ProbTrade is a platform where even inexperienced traders in the prediction markets can gain an edge over seasoned traders.
We offer one of the best services for copy trading and AI strategies to automate your trading.
Choose to work with a ready-made strategy or develop your own together with our AI agent.
ProbTrade is a product that is constantly evolving, improving in quality, and opening up the world of prediction markets to an ever-growing number of users.
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May 19
Prediction markets are becoming multi-chain.
Your liquidity should move as fast as narratives do.
ProbTrade now supports native USDC movement between Polygon ↔ Solana directly inside the app.
• No fees
• No external bridges
• No friction
• Powered by @circle and CCTP
Deposit once. Trade anywhere.
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May 14
Find a profitable trader in Top Holders -> add them to Copy Trading -> and receive notifications about their trades.
Top Holders shows the top 20 YES and NO holders for each market. Position size, outcome, wallet address.
Big players usually enter after thorough analysis. If the top 5 holders are sitting on YES - that’s a signal. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a reason to check what you might have missed.
> If you find an address that’s consistently in the black, add it to Copy Trading. Then you’ll receive notifications every time they open a new position.
The secret to a profitable strategy is actually simple. Most people just don’t try.
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May 13
Our vision for ProbTrade has always been bigger than just trading.
We want any community, startup or ecosystem to be able to launch their own prediction markets in minutes.
No waiting. No gatekeepers.
Cool to see @DDDTracker already experimenting with this together with ProbTrade 🤝
May 13
The first market built around DDD just went live on @ProbTradeAI.
It asks a simple question:
When do stablecoins = 2% of the US money supply?
We are at 1.41% today.
That means 1 in 71 US dollars is currently a stablecoin.
The target is 1 in 50.
app.prob.trade/clusters/when…
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May 11
ProbTrade has officially entered @colosseum Frontier.
So naturally…
we launched a live prediction market on whether we’ll get accepted into the accelerator 👀
Building a prediction market terminal on @Solana.
Launch any market in one click.
Big respect to @CapinUK and @SuperteamUK for creating an environment where builders can ship fast, test new ideas, and bring them to life.
Live on Solana:
app.prob.trade/clusters/will…
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May 11
For anyone curious about what we’re building — here’s our pitch 👇
loom.com/share/6e7e47d294744…
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May 11
Every startup pitches judges.
We thought:
why not let the market have a say too? 👀
So we launched a live prediction market on our own future:
“Will ProbTrade be accepted into Colosseum Accelerator?”
Big respect to @colosseum and @SuperteamUK for creating spaces where builders can ship fast and experiment publicly.
Live on Solana:
app.prob.trade/clusters/will…
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ProbTrade retweeted
May 10
How to create your own prediction market for any event
There're 2 ways you can create a prediction market
The 1st is to submit a market on @Polymarket Discord
It's long, hard process. And doesn't always work
The 2nd is to create a market via @ProbTradeAI
It’s quick, easy. And even can make you money - 1% on every trade
I prefer the 2nd way as it has much more advantages
Create your own market and earn: app.prob.trade/create
Mb I should create a market too?
Let me know in comments which topic I should choose
May 9
Create a prediction market in 60 seconds. Earn 1% on every trade - forever.
$100 USDC, 2-30 outcomes, any topic. Elections, sports, crypto, AI benchmarks - anything that can be framed with mutually exclusive answers.
You set the initial probabilities yourself. By default, they are evenly distributed - 1/N for each outcome.
Under the hood, there is a single pool for all outcomes. The probabilities sum to 1 mathematically - there is no structural arbitrage opportunity.
Three on-chain fee accumulators: creator, LP, and protocol. Each is marked with a separate instruction sent directly to your wallet.
> Want to participate risk-free? Hold tokens for all outcomes simultaneously. Guaranteed $1 return at any time. No impermanent loss.
Transaction fee: $0.0005. Block time: 400 ms. SPL tokens work directly on Jupiter, Solend, and Kamino.
Read more: prob.trade/blog/prediction-m…
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May 9
Create a prediction market in 60 seconds. Earn 1% on every trade - forever.
$100 USDC, 2-30 outcomes, any topic. Elections, sports, crypto, AI benchmarks - anything that can be framed with mutually exclusive answers.
You set the initial probabilities yourself. By default, they are evenly distributed - 1/N for each outcome.
Under the hood, there is a single pool for all outcomes. The probabilities sum to 1 mathematically - there is no structural arbitrage opportunity.
Three on-chain fee accumulators: creator, LP, and protocol. Each is marked with a separate instruction sent directly to your wallet.
> Want to participate risk-free? Hold tokens for all outcomes simultaneously. Guaranteed $1 return at any time. No impermanent loss.
Transaction fee: $0.0005. Block time: 400 ms. SPL tokens work directly on Jupiter, Solend, and Kamino.
Read more: prob.trade/blog/prediction-m…
May 7
Anyone can create a prediction market. All it takes is $100 in liquidity and 2 minutes.
But first, let’s talk about why this became possible in the first place.
Every existing prediction market has the same mathematical flaw. In multi-outcome markets, probabilities don’t necessarily add up to 1.
The protocol can’t fix this on its own - it pays arbitrageurs. In 2024, this cost @Polymarket $40 million. Traders and LPs footed the bill.
Augur tried to solve it on-chain - it got bogged down in dispute resolution, and markets hung for months.
PredictIt was shut down by the CFTC. Kalshi survived through regulatory compliance, not through mathematics. The algorithm’s problem remained unresolved.
> We rewrote the algorithm from scratch. One pool for all outcomes instead of N independent binary markets. Probabilities are mathematically summed into 1 - not via a workaround. Arbitrage loopholes do not exist structurally.
The platform decides what to trade and who provides liquidity - it is the venue. We built the infrastructure. Anyone can create a market. Anyone can provide liquidity.
Elections. Sports. Whether a friend will launch a startup. Anything that can be formulated with mutually exclusive answers.
Pump.fun showed just how big the long tail gets when the entry barrier is low. We did the same for prediction markets - only on Solana.
> Create your own market at - app.prob.trade/create
Transactions cost fractions of a cent. Blocks finalize in milliseconds. Outcome tokens are native SPLs - they connect directly to Drift, Kamino, and Jupiter.
Every dollar the winner is supposed to receive is held in a vault until resolution.
> Pitching this at @colosseum's Frontier Hackathon.
The first permissionless prediction-market infrastructure on Solana. @SuperteamUK - this is the build.
Come find us in the room.
Whitepaper: docsend.com/view/hpxdhsn75ty…
Password: info@prob.trade
Powered on @solana
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ProbTrade retweeted
May 8
Ownership Roadshow #2 🏟️ Powered by @UmbraPrivacy ☁️ x.com/i/broadcasts/1qxoNejmA…
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ProbTrade retweeted
May 8
Welcome @vlprosvirkin as our next Roadshow #2 pitching team!
@ProbTradeAI is building one-click prediction markets on Solana, with AI features that turn text-described strategies into automated bots.
Catch us on X live today from 7PM UTC / 12PM PT 🦈
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May 8
Which Kickstart startup will be the first to hit a $1M market cap before the end of May? 👀
We turned it into a live prediction market on Solana.
Builders, communities, and supporters can now back the projects they believe in onchain 🌍
app.prob.trade/clusters/whic…
Featuring:
@ArthurLabsDAO
@flypraxis
@chainlens402
@FitterCircle
@synapseneuro_ai
cc:
@EasyA_Kickstart
@easya_app
@kwok_phil
@dom_kwok
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May 7
Anyone can create a prediction market. All it takes is $100 in liquidity and 2 minutes.
But first, let’s talk about why this became possible in the first place.
Every existing prediction market has the same mathematical flaw. In multi-outcome markets, probabilities don’t necessarily add up to 1.
The protocol can’t fix this on its own - it pays arbitrageurs. In 2024, this cost @Polymarket $40 million. Traders and LPs footed the bill.
Augur tried to solve it on-chain - it got bogged down in dispute resolution, and markets hung for months.
PredictIt was shut down by the CFTC. Kalshi survived through regulatory compliance, not through mathematics. The algorithm’s problem remained unresolved.
> We rewrote the algorithm from scratch. One pool for all outcomes instead of N independent binary markets. Probabilities are mathematically summed into 1 - not via a workaround. Arbitrage loopholes do not exist structurally.
The platform decides what to trade and who provides liquidity - it is the venue. We built the infrastructure. Anyone can create a market. Anyone can provide liquidity.
Elections. Sports. Whether a friend will launch a startup. Anything that can be formulated with mutually exclusive answers.
Pump.fun showed just how big the long tail gets when the entry barrier is low. We did the same for prediction markets - only on Solana.
> Create your own market at - app.prob.trade/create
Transactions cost fractions of a cent. Blocks finalize in milliseconds. Outcome tokens are native SPLs - they connect directly to Drift, Kamino, and Jupiter.
Every dollar the winner is supposed to receive is held in a vault until resolution.
> Pitching this at @colosseum's Frontier Hackathon.
The first permissionless prediction-market infrastructure on Solana. @SuperteamUK - this is the build.
Come find us in the room.
Whitepaper: docsend.com/view/hpxdhsn75ty…
Password: info@prob.trade
Powered on @solana
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May 7
Which Superteam is producing the strongest builders in this Colosseum hackathon? 👀
We turned it into a live prediction market on Solana.
Every region is in the race.
Back your region 👇
app.prob.trade/clusters/whic…
cc:
@SuperteamUK
@SuperteamDE
@SuperteamUKR
@SuperteamUSA
@SuperteamIN
@colosseumorg
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May 7
Leaderboard getting crowded 👀📷
@colosseum @SuperteamAE @superteam @SuperteamAU @SuperteamBR @SuperteamINDO @SuperteamGEO @SuperteamMY @LaFamilia_so
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May 7
Leaderboard getting crowded 👀🌍
@SuperteamPOL @superteamIE @SuperteamJapan @SuperteamTR @SuperteamVN @SuperteamBR @SuperteamBLKN @SuperteamKorea @SuperteamCAN @SuperteamNG
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May 6
Describe your strategy in text for prediction markets, and we’ll turn it into an automated strategy in 15 seconds.
> Here’s how it works:
You write down your idea -> AI builds a chain of blocks: market filter, entry conditions, action, capital protection -> the strategy is ready to launch.
The strategy scans the markets every 10 minutes. It runs 24/7. Without you.
Strategy Builder -> app.prob.trade
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ProbTrade retweeted
Most prediction markets today feel limited
binary, fragmented, inefficient
so we’re rethinking it from the roots
building multi-outcome prediction markets
with a single-pool LMSR model on Solana w multi outcomes
deeper liquidity
better pricing
smoother execution
@ProbTradeAI
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May 4
ProbTrade is now LIVE on @legendsdotfun 💥
legends.fun/products/58874b3…
Trade Polymarket, Kalshi & Solana markets in one place
@SuperteamUK @CapinUK
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May 3
AI Analysis on ProbTrade - 4 steps in 15 seconds
Step 1 - Identifies the category: sports, crypto, or politics.
Step 2 - Collects data: injuries, statistics, odds, news, and on-chain metrics.
Step 3 - Find the edge: the difference between what the market thinks and what the data says.
Step 4 - Generate a conclusion with a confidence score and a recommendation - to take or skip.
ProbTrade is a reliable partner in your trading.
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May 2
You can also trade on all 5-, 15-, and 60-minute markets, as well as other markets, with ProbTrade.
We know that many people experience lag when trading on @Polymarket - with us, you’ll trade seamlessly.
Choose quality.
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