Prof. Brenda Shaffer specializes in intl energy, natural gas, Middle East, Azerbaijan, Caucasus, Caspian energy, and East-Med. Passion-mountain gorillas

Joined March 2014
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NEW: The deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed tomorrow, according to President Trump.
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Widespread disruptions are again rippling across Iran’s banking system, with customers of major banks reporting frozen accounts, dead ATMs, and downed apps. This is another sector of Iran’s economy that’s been quietly failing for years. Iran’s banks are structurally bankrupt and the regime can’t dig itself out of this hole with a few billion dollars in frozen assets. Most of the system is insolvent on paper. When the Central Bank dissolved Ayandeh Bank in late 2025, one of the country’s largest lenders, it carried ~$5.1B in accumulated losses, $2.9B in overdrafts, and a staggering negative 600% capital adequacy ratio. Iran’s Regulators admit at least eight other banks risk the same fate.
Several Iranian bank card services were disrupted on Saturday, with customers reporting failed payments, blocked transfers and POS errors in messages sent to Iran International. Iranian media reported disruptions affecting cards issued by Bank Melli, Tejarat, Sepah and Saderat. Messages from users also cited problems with Mellat cards and said both online transfers and ATM or card payments were failing. One shopkeeper said nearly 90% of bank cards had been down for about four hours, leaving customers unable to make purchases. Another message from Mashhad said banks had been facing disruptions since the morning. A customer said cards from Bank Melli, Mellat and Tejarat were not working at a shop, while another message said POS devices were showing an “issuer error.” iranintl.com/en/202606136049
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FREE TO READ: The top-10 reasons why oil prices are below $100 a barrel. 1) China, China and China 2) Demand destruction 3) Lots of oil bypassing/leaving the Strait of Hormuz 4) The original oversupply 5) Huge SPR release / commercial stocks draw 6) Refinery flexibility 7) Trump's jawboning 8) Options market development 9) The fog of war is thinner 10) Soaring Americas oil output bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Iran launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces have downed all of them in recent hours as traffic flow through the strait continues unimpeded. The international trade corridor remains open for transit.
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"By 2025, 66% percent of Democrats held a positive image of socialism, according to Gallup. Zohran Mamdani, a DSA member and Mr. Sanders loyalist, is the mayor of America’s largest city." wsj.com/opinion/free-express… via @WSJFreeEx
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On what Iran has to do first to get sanctions relief, a senior administration official says: “The President has said his highest priority is getting the enriched material out of the country, destroying it. So they have to do some things related to that in order to get any sanctions relief."
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Honored to speak at the Trans-Caspian Forum 2026 on the future of the Middle Corridor and Caspian connectivity. ✓ Emphasized that the Middle Corridor is no longer merely a transit route - it is evolving into a strategic geo-economic system linking Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, reflecting a structural shift in the architecture of Eurasian connectivity. ✓ Highlighted Azerbaijan’s growing role as a key Eurasian connectivity hub, driven by major investments in rail, maritime, aviation, and digital infrastructure. Azerbaijan’s unique South Caucasian, Central Asian, European, Middle Eastern, and Caspian geopolitical identities and dimensions complement and reinforce one another, positioning the country as a natural bridge across regions. ✓ Noted that in today’s world, the strength of a regional middle power is measured not only by geography, population, economic size, or military capabilities, but also by the quality of its partnerships, its connectivity, and its ability to shape regional and international agendas and it’s influence at the global stage. Azerbaijan increasingly reflects this model. ✓ Reaffirmed our commitment to advancing secure, resilient, and future-oriented connectivity across Eurasia. #MiddleCorridor #Middlepower #Connectivity #Azerbaijan #TransCaspianForum
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This reads like a screed by a Marxist undergrad in a campus paper. There is no way the editors of the Globe thought it was a meritorious piece. Was it run because the “eat the rich” tag line would max engagement? Is the Globe now trolling us with clickbait? Or do the Globe’s editors also want to incite hatred of their massively wealthy proprietors?
Opinion: SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Here’s how to properly hate him theglobeandmail.com/business…
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Senior admin official tells @realDailyWire on destroying and removing the enriched material: "It's gonna take a little bit of time to figure it out. This is very combustible stuff, very volatile stuff. We're not just going to go down there with a backpack and start taking it out. The technical details need to be figured out, but I think there's a commitment to do that." "There's also a commitment to dismantling the nuclear weapons program. There's a commitment to decommissioning the nuclear sites and of course, we're gonna figure out how to do that in the technical negotiations that will follow, but we think that this is the fist and most important step to really ensuring that the Iranians do not build a nuclear weapon."
NEW: A senior administration official shares more details about the deal with Iran on a call with reporters: "Look I feel very good about this deal, I think the president has us in a very good spot...We’re not quite at the finish line yet but we are very close." - Says the deal reopens the strait and lifts blockade - Leads to the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program - Leads to the US getting the enriched material - Guarantees a long term peace in the region -Any reporting about what the Iranians get as part of this agreement upon the signing of the MOU - that’s all not true. They get nothing on the signing of the MOU. They get rewarded economically for complying with their obligations under the deal. -Their benefits under the deal only come when they actually perform what they are supposed to perform
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Scoop: The #UAE has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for #Iran, ​in a tactical shift after weeks of Iranian attacks on the wealthy Gulf Arab state uring the U.S.-Israeli #war with the Islamic Republic... with @andmills and @aghaddar reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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The U.S. is actively discussing plans to send forces into Iran to retrieve nuclear material, according to CBS. Among the contingencies: deploying the Department of Energy's NEST unit with military support to locate and secure the material on the ground.
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Roughly 7 million barrels of daily oil and fuel shipments are flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, or about half of the volumes stranded at the start of the Iran war, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told me in Houston. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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U.S. forces continue to strictly enforce the blockade against Iran. CENTCOM has redirected 139 compliant commercial ships and disabled 9 non-compliant vessels since April 13.
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"The MOU would lead to the dismantling of #Iran's nuclear program and Tehran's highly ‌enriched ⁠uranium would be destroyed on site and then taken out of the country, the U.S. official said." "The Iranians don't get anything ​upon the signing of the MOU or upon the ​negotiation itself," ⁠the official said. "They get rewarded economically for complying with their obligations under the deal. So if they turn over the nuclear material as promised, ⁠they'll ​get something. If they dismantle their nuclear ​program or their nuclear facilities, they'll get something else," said the official." reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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US nitrogen fertiliser prices dropping and dropping. Spot urea (granular) in New Orleans quoted at a ~6-month low of $386 per short ton. Urea prices are down ~45% from their peak in April. Current price is the same as a year ago, plus-minus a few dollars.
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Trump: The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith.
Iranian media outlet Mehr, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team, published what it says are new details from the 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran: 1. An immediate and permanent halt to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. A U.S. pledge not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs. 3. Lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days. 4. A U.S. commitment to withdraw forces from areas around Iran. 5. reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. 6. Suspending sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products and related revenues, and making Iranian financial resources fully accessible. 7. The U.S. and its allies will present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. 8. 60 days of negotiations toward a final agreement covering nuclear issues, full sanctions relief, reconstruction of Iran’s economy, and the fate of enriched material and enrichment. 9. An Iranian commitment not to produce nuclear weapons. 10. During the negotiations, the U.S. will not to increase its forces in the region or impose new sanctions. 11. The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds during the 60-day negotiation period, with half made available before talks begin. 12. Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement. 13. 1The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution. 14. The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement will be made solely on the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the Iranian economic reconstruction program. According to Mehr, the draft excludes Iran’s missile program and support for “resistance groups” from the agenda, Mehr adds that the text still requires review and final approval by the relevant Iranian institutions.
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On this day in 1987, U.S. president Ronald Reagan stands before the Brandenburg Gate and challenges Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev to come to Berlin and tear down the wall.
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