Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Dayton. Author, "I'm Here to Ask for Your Vote" & "Do Running Mates Matter?"
Joined May 2016
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Christopher Devine retweeted
'Second in Command,' a new book edited by @univofdayton political scientist @ProfDevine, brings together leading scholars to trace the growing influence of vice presidents and running mates in American politics: udayton.co/lAO
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9 Dec 2025
Me, too! Thanks, @bjrottinghaus--part of an all-star lineup of VP/presidency scholars contributing to this this volume. Can't wait for you all to have a chance to read it soon (spring 2026).
6 Nov 2025
Excited for this excellent volume on vice presidents from @UofMPress edited by @premontk_rine and @ProfDevine! Justin Vaughn (@CCUChanticleers) and I contributed a chapter on scholarly assessments of vice presidential greatness.
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Christopher Devine retweeted
18 Apr 2025
Excited to announce the formal release of our second collection of essays on politics in the postwar Midwest. It was a dream of mine to put essays in conversation with each other across two volumes. Thx to my co editor @jlauck1941, our amazing contributors, and @kansas_press!
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Christopher Devine retweeted
8 Nov 2024
A very simple prescription for Democrats: Just wait.
There's reason to be skeptical toward early campaign-based explanations for Harris' loss. And the issues that might propel a Dem comeback are likely unknown until Trump starts governing.
semafor.com/article/11/08/20…
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Christopher Devine retweeted
8 Nov 2024
People always doubt the future viability of parties that lose big elections. But then the pressure goes on the new party in power, voters sour on them, and the circle of life continues.
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Christopher Devine retweeted
7 Nov 2024
Latest numbers: across the seven battleground states, the '20-'24 swing towards Trump was ~3.1 pts. Across the other 43 states ( DC), it was ~6.7 pts.
Bottom line: the Harris campaign swam impressively against some very strong underlying currents.
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Christopher Devine retweeted
7 Nov 2024
“... if someone is looking for someone or something to blame for Kamala Harris’ loss, I don’t think Tim Walz is the right person to focus on.” @ProfDevine tells @StarTribune startribune.com/whats-next-f… #Election2024
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Christopher Devine retweeted
7 Nov 2024
Vance could be a more influential VP than Pence, who handled some high-profile tasks but ultimately didn't hold sway with Trump, @ProfDevine told @DispatchAlerts dispatch.com/story/news/poli…
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Christopher Devine retweeted
6 Nov 2024
My initial take on Trump's win:
goodauthority.org/news/where…
His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups.
The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses.
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Christopher Devine retweeted
6 Nov 2024
This doesn’t strike as “if only we put forward this other candidate” or “if only more people knocked on doors in PA” or “Harris should’ve talked more about [insert pet issue here].”
This is much deeper than that
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Christopher Devine retweeted
6 Nov 2024
2024 polling error in historical context (for key states):
1. Much better in most of Midwest NC vs. 16/20.
2. IA big exception. Along w/FL TX, worst polling misses over last 2 decades.
3. Same direction of error for ~every state for 3rd straight year--this is not normal.
6 Nov 2024
If NYT estimates are correct, national polls would be off by 2.4 (compared to 538 averages) & swing state polls would be off 1.9 PA, 4.1 NV, 1.7 GA, 2.5 NC, 2.9 MI, 2.6 WI, & 2.6 AZ. That's not a large average error, though it is systematic in the same direction as 2016 & 2020.
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Christopher Devine retweeted
6 Nov 2024
I cannot say this enough:
- Early exits are not suitable for demographic analysis or comparisons.
- AP/Votecast is still preliminary -- should be adjusted for final vote counts.
- We don't have Catalist. Or Pew validated voters.
It's just too early to have confident takes!
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Christopher Devine retweeted
6 Nov 2024
Staggering class realignment/shift in working class
Harris lost DESPITE major shift of affluent voters her way
2020: Trump wins voters over $100K, 54-52
2024: *Harris* wins voters over $100K, 54-45
2020: Biden wins voters $50K-$100K, 57-42
2024: *Trump* w/ voters $50K-$100K, 49-47
2020: Biden wins voters under $50K, 55-45
2024: Trump massive improvement w/ voters under $50K, 49-48
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6 Nov 2024
If your take on the election starts with the VP pick anywhere in the top 3, you weren’t paying attention last night.
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6 Nov 2024
But Josh Shapiro!!
6 Nov 2024
Harris is on track to underperform Biden by 5 points in Minnesota, despite picking Tim Walz as her VP. If there's a home state VP effect, we're just not seeing it — that's basically exactly her national underperformance on Biden and is, in fact, worse than the rest of the Midwest
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Christopher Devine retweeted
5 Nov 2024
I counted the yard signs in my neighborhood, and "ADT Home Security" is going to win in a landslide.
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Christopher Devine retweeted
4 Nov 2024
Who’s winning the 2024 ground game?
Data collected by @swhyard_ and I shows @KamalaHarris is dominating the ground game in PA, MI and GA.
For more on the placement and effects of offices, our new book Storefront Campaining will be out later this month! cambridge.org/core/elements/…
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4 Nov 2024
If you’re looking for expertise on the Electoral College—and I think we’ll all be needing that in the coming days/weeks/months—better make sure you’re following @bgsuprof.
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Christopher Devine retweeted
4 Nov 2024
Many thanks to @LSEUSAblog for the opportunity to discuss Iowa in the context of the presidential election this week.
4 Nov 2024
A new Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris in the lead. Here’s why that matters wp.me/p3I2YF-eu8
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