UChicago Professor of Political Science directs Chicago Project on Security & Threats, author Bombing To Win and writes substack: The Escalation Trap.
Joined September 2021
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Jun 11
Three months ago, I argued airpower would not collapse Iran
Two months ago, I argued survival would create leverage
Today the ceasefire is breaking down and the war is entering another phase
Tonight I'll explain why—and what's coming next
The events change, the mechanism doesn't
Escalation Trap substack live briefing 7pm ET
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Trump is pressuring Iran to sign the MOU on his terms, paying no money upfront
No surprise Iran now says no signing tomorrow
Little chance of a deal without unfreezing Iran’s assets
That’s the “trap”: neither side can accept a clear strategic defeat
Trump’s post:
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Trump is getting fleeced by Iran
The deal:
• $24B cash oil sales
• Just 60 days of open Hormuz
Iran pockets $30B in two months
Day 61, Iran can close Hormuz again, and repeat the extortion
Massive loss for Trump—Huge win for Iran
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Evidence for the numbers:
FM Iran confirms Iran receives its frozen billions before nuclear talks begin, ie in 60 days
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Robert A. Pape retweeted
Jun 11
The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.
Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.
VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.
Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change
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Jun 12
Why we are in the middle game of the worst Escalation Trap in US history
Not the endgame
And things will get worse
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Jun 12
We are about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran
This will last thru the midterms and why Iran has no real interest in settling now, before more damage is done to world economy and especially Trump
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Jun 12
Great discussion on CNN with @thelauracoates on Trump’s whiplash Iran policy
As Iran shifts from survival to ambition, will Trump pivot back to escalation?
Here is my take: video.snapstream.net/Play/6g…
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Jun 11
Trump is now threatening to seize control of Iran’s oil
He long said US should have taken Iraq’s oil in 2003
Didn’t work in Venezuela and won’t in Iran
Trump can destroy but that’s not same as control.
We are heading toward a major crisis for the world economy and long war
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Jun 10
Pres Trump just said 200 ships have secretly passed Hormuz since the war began
That’s compared to over 10,000 in the normal 100 days since the war
200 is 2% of the norm
World heading to historic energy crisis
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Jun 10
Why is the Iran War heating up?
Because Iran is moving from survival to ambition
And Trump cannot accept this massive strategic defeat
As I explained yesterday on Breaking Points
youtu.be/6SQnX9QRu9o
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Jun 10
Prepare for major escalation
Trump just abandoned promises of a deal and now
Threatens to make Iran “pay the price”
The real price may be Gulf oil infrastructure and a historic global energy crisis
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Jun 10
Day 103 Iran War
The biggest exchange of US-Iran strikes since April “ceasefire”
Following biggest Iran-Israel exchange
This is not the endgame—it is the middle game of the Escalation Trap
Heading to energy crisis as oil inventories run dry in July
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Jun 10
This is the key:
Iran took down a US Apache helicopter worth $40 million with a $20k Shaheed drone.
2000 to 1 cost exchange ratio
Unsustainable even with 0 fatalities
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Jun 8
The biggest surprise of Day 100 is no longer whether Iran can survive this war
Iran just fired missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire. Israel has now struck Iran in response
The question is whether Tehran increasingly believes it is gaining leverage
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Jun 8
Everyone should see this NYT map
The Escalation Trap is not ending -- it is widening
The Red Sea -- not Israel per se -- is the critical area to watch
Loss of Gulf oil thru this chokepoint would dramatically worsen the consequences of oil inventories hitting bottom in late July
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Jun 8
This is the logic of the Escalation Trap
The opening campaign fails to produce decisive political results
The weaker state survives
Survival creates leverage
Leverage creates ambition and expands objectives
The danger is not simply more fighting.
The danger is wider geographic escalation
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Jun 8
Watch one indicator above all others:
Does the conflict spread from Hormuz into the Red Sea?
If attacks begin threatening both energy routes simultaneously, the issue is no longer Iran or Israel.
It becomes the global economy.
My Day 100 analysis:
"The Escalation Trap: Why Iran's Strategy Is Expanding — and the Ceasefire Is Breaking Down."
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