The good news for reform is that constituency polls usually underestimate the squeeze and CON RES is nearly 10%. The bad news is that getting half is a big ask. Labour still clear favourites but will win by a small margin.

And this is not praise of Labour. Labour has a competent and effective ground game that sits in stark contrast to their incompetence and ineptitude at actually running the country.

Restore is going to get 5% in Makerfield and Burnham will probably win. Alot of people will be shocked pikachu by something which is completely obvious. Reform and restore (but especially restore) are showing their inexperience when it comes to campaigning.

If Reform is wise they'd pick someone with an A or B surname to appear above Burnham in the ballot. Might sound trivial but could be worth 500 votes according to some studies.

The main story has been rearrangement within left/right blocs (e.g Lab->Grn, Con-> Ref) But tonight we see that superimposed on another interbloc axis Left->Right. Together the damage accumulates on Labour while there is constructive interference on the greens that limit gains.

I wonder if there will be a single LAB gain in the entire election?

Results so far Reform: Strongly overperforming Labour: Strongly underperforming Lib: Weakly underperforming Green: Weakly underperforming Tory: Roughly in line with expectations

The model is obviously wrong. This is insane. The UK has been stagnating (in per capita terms) since the financial crash as have comparable EU states. So if we'd remained, this trend would have suddenly dramatically reversed despite this not happening in the EU itself!?

The whole point of #PMQs is that the prime minister is asked questions and answers them.

Labour: Dreadful and clearly out of their depth Green: Completely crazy Lib Dems: Completely irrelevant Reform: Yelling at clouds and Polling companies The Tories are still the best option at the moment.

Gorton and Denton forecast: Reform: 31% Green: 29% Labour: 22% Conservative: 3% Lib Dem: 2%

Beyond the Slogan: The Conservative Record in Full 1/ Before we even get to “14 years of Conservative Government, let’s start earlier. The Iraq War was a Labour decision. Half the UK’s gold reserves were sold at historic lows under Labour. We were promised “no more boom and bust” yet Britain entered the worst financial crisis in modern times. Those decisions shaped the 2010 inheritance. 2/ In 2010 the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition inherited a deficit of around 10% of GDP and an economy reeling from the global crash. Bank lending froze. Borrowing surged. Confidence was fragile. Deficit reduction became the central priority. 3/ The deficit fell over time and employment later reached record levels before the pandemic. But austerity had consequences. Public services were squeezed. Local government funding fell. The recovery was uneven. Stability came with trade-offs. 4/ In 2015 voters delivered a Conservative majority under David Cameron. A referendum on EU membership had been promised. The public were given that choice. In 2016 the country voted to leave. Brexit was not imposed — it was decided. 5/ The years that followed were marked by division and parliamentary deadlock. Theresa May struggled to secure agreement on the terms of departure. In 2019 Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority promising to break the impasse. Brexit legislation passed. The UK formally left the EU. 6/ Then came Covid. The government introduced furlough and emergency business support. Millions of jobs were protected. The UK moved quickly on vaccine rollout. But borrowing surged. Lockdowns had economic and social consequences. NHS backlogs grew. Public trust was strained. 7/ After Boris Johnson’s resignation, Liz Truss attempted a rapid economic shift. Markets reacted badly. Mortgage rates rose. Confidence was shaken. The damage to the party’s economic reputation was significant. 8/ Rishi Sunak focused on stabilisation. Inflation fell from its peak. Markets steadied. But public services remained strained. Migration targets were missed. Living standards had been under pressure for years. After 14 years, voter fatigue was real. 9/ We inherited an economy reeling from financial collapse. We gave the people a choice on Europe. We governed through a pandemic and war returning to Europe. We are not perfect. Fourteen years cannot be reduced to a slogan. It was recovery, decisions, shocks, achievements, mistakes and eventually a loss of trust. Renewal starts with honesty.

When the Labour government ends up being one of the biggest Reform UK doners. Feels like the chuckle brothers are running things.

Its official, when correcting for population growth the UK is in a recession.

Boris Johnson ate a slice of cake during an 8 minute break at work. That was 'the party' for context.

Its like a sitcom. Unbelievable.

🗳️ POLL | Reform lead by 8pts ➡️ Ref: 30% (-3) 🔵 Con: 22% ( 3) 🔴 Lab: 17% (-2) 🟢 Grn: 14% ( 2) 🟠 Lib: 14% ( 2) -- Seats -- ➡️ Ref: 318 🔵 Con: 99 🟠 Lib: 80 🟢 Grn: 46 🟡 SNP: 42 🔴 Lab: 39 Poll: Freshwater, 30 Jan-1 Feb ( /- vs 11 Jan)

Slight simplification but this is how ridiculous it feels. Partisan left: Self determination for Greenland not Chagos Partisan right: Self determination for Chagos not Greenland. This is not consistency its sycophancy.

Ouch

Lord Ashcroft polls (vs November) REF: 25% (-2) CON: 22% ( 4) GRN: 19% ( 1) LAB: 18% (=) LIB: 10% (-1)