Anytime I see u pple mention "19 northern states"...😅
You are deliberately being obtuse here. D last election clearly showed that there's a difference btw north & Central. We voted against APC cos we get sense pass North. If not 4 rigging, there should have been a run off.
Obi was never going to win that election because it was clear he won’t win any state in the 19 states of the North and at least 5 states of the SW.
That was 24 states he was never going to win.
Atiku stood the best chance of beating BAT. And he could have easily done but PDP’s traditional bases of SE and SS were depleted.
There was only going to be one winner.
I gave Atiku small chance in my scenario 3 because I wasn’t sure how loyal party members of the SS and SE were going to take Obi, but it wasn’t the case as we saw later, making it easier for a BAT victory.
On rigging, every single presidential election since 1979, there have been some rigging.
All, bar, maybe, 1993. When NPN beat UPN and NPP in 1979 and 1983, when PDP beat AD/APP in 1999, beat APP in 2003, beat ANPP and AC in 2007, the CPC and ACN in 2011, when APC beat PDP in 2015 and 2019, there were rigging.
Was it enough to tilt? No
The worst rigging in Nigeria happened in 2007, but with ot withour rigging, no way Buhari’s APP was ever going to defeat Yaradua’s PDP.
Was there rigging in 2023? Yes, mostly by APC and LP in their supporters’ strongholds (people don’t take bullet for Atiku - he never had that loyalty, that fanatical support base!).
Did that tilt outcome? As it was in 1979, as it was in 2007, it doesn’t tilt outcome.
Presidential election is not HOR election!
This thing is not about wishes or preferences, it is about reality of Nigerian system.