🔮 2025 forecast: Heading towards major market top ⚠️ -📉$SPX: overall structure is up early in the year, 10% correction, then melt up into major top, followed by ~17% drop that kicks off a bear market: ⬆️ Up till ~Jan 17 (~6250) then 10% correction by end of Q1 (~5600 target) 🎁 Buy points ~Feb 26 and second half of Mar (ideal date is Mar 28). This is primary buy point for the year setting up final leg up for the cycle 🎁 Minor buy point ~June 27 ⚠️ Major top ~July 17, then Aug 22 ether lower high or double top/divergent high with 6500 min target I outlined a few times past 3 years & ~7000 upside target 🎯 🔽 Down into ~Oct 27 (seasonal low & nested cycle lows), then bounce which fails 📉 $SPX ends the year red setting up disastrous 2026. YE Target 🎯 5650 -🅱️ $BTC: Deep retest into March low, followed by 1 more run at the highs early summer; after which crypto starts multi year bear market. IMO high probability that next 4 year cycle (2026 ) will be left translated and Saylor & $MSTR will be liquidated and $USDT #tether fraud will also likely be exposed, while almost all alts lose 99-100%. Right now it’s unclear if BTC will act more as a NASDAQ proxy or monetary hedge in the years ahead. Many alts have potentially peaked for the cycle but some like $ETH have more upside. -💲 $DXY: Dollar likely to remain in uptrend into 2025-26. There is a potential pullback early in the year helping risk assets to push higher, then a rally into spring (risk assets sell off). Then big correction in $USD into July-Aug low which should coincide with the market top -💶 $EUR: 18M low is due and likely falls ~March '25. The subsequent 18M cycle is likely left translated with a drop into 2026 4Y cycle low where targeting below par vs USD -💹 $JPY : I’m still looking for #yen to start a secular multi year uptrend which will results in trillions in capital to be pulled back from US back to Japan 🇯🇵 during years ahead -📈 $TNX: bonds remain in a secular bear market so any rally in bonds will be cyclical (growth scare/recession) followed by a big rates rally. There is a potential counter rally in bonds in Q1 2025 which will fail. $TNX technical target is 5.5% -💰 #Gold: given that 2022 was 8 year cycle low, we have bullish IT/LT bias. There is a potential low in spring with ~$2400 support, then push higher towards high $2800-$3000 into 2026. CBs won’t stop buying as war cycle and geopol tensions intensify while governments debase currencies. -🪙 #Silver: post consolidation, next target is $38 next 6Qs -⚡️🛢️☢️ #Energy: all energy should be in uptrend next 6-8Qs; NatGas likely being the leader (new ATH in ‘26), oil 80s in spring and 100, then 150 in 2026, uranium back to 100 in 2025, coal as well. My oil leading indicators and cycles suggest a big move next 2 years but exact timing of expansion is hard to pinpoint, potentially ~end of 2025 into 2026. -🏦 Macro: GDP growth ideal cycle top is mid-2025 while unemployment should continue rising into 2026 suggesting recession could come in early 2026 or even end of 2025. -💦 Liquidity 5Y cycle peaks ~mid-2025 and should roll over which will a major issue for historically overpriced equities and crypto. The big question is with RRP drained, if/when Fed will provide liquidity to support asset prices without real economic reason to. -Commentary below 👇

brother, please do a detailed write-up as it's not possible to join space call in the morning with all the meetings...it's been insane game change since following you. Great work @iv_trader , you are the best.

$SPX $SPY ....ya see it now ya (pinned tweet) ? // Anywho this is where I thought (still do) we'd land....everyone will call out all the H&S patterns - while all we do is flag through May and break out into August..... 'path' till it's not...

$AMD lot of sharp chartists have started calling a bottom past few weeks....I could be wrong but have been saying lower for a long time now....my target lower still

5/6/25 $SPX Setup P.C: 5650 Pivot: 5635 Straddle: ±44pts Flows shifted — as long as we remain below 5635, positioning favors downside pressure. Dealers aren’t supporting the tape here. Any bounce under pivot is a short until proven otherwise. Levels to the downside: → 5600— possible bounce zone → 5575 — expecting responsive flow here → 5525 — largest dealer long strike, likely a downside magnet if pressure builds The flip: If bulls can hold the 5575–5600 pocket and reclaim 5635, this sets the stage for a grind into 5725–5750 by week’s end. I will monitor this and update if I see changes. Staying tactical and data-driven. Flow powered by @OptionsDepth. No fluff, just flow! See you in the space tomorrow , you coming? #PMFS @tony_mansour

We don't because you just throw up charts and don't explain much.

54943

$QQQ almost at my 'bullseye' 448....If lost on Weekly = 420 next target below - and then 233MA/Channel support shown via lower arrow //Needs close over DTL to even be 'constructive'

$SPY $SPX Current thesis... fugly into a March/April low 20ish%...forming a H&S getting everyone bearish then rip higher with two 5ish% drawdowns in back half of year...eoy calling for 18ish% year // See my pinned tweet

$SOX This is what that thesis looks like for Semi's (another 14%ish from here) //Only over DTL negates this view

Thank you for sharing your outlook ! Does that mean you are bearish for rest of year? Or still in the camp of fugly till April only?

$NVDA overlaid on Livermore's fav. chart...Is that what I need to do to get attention here? DoomerPorn???

$NVDA Perspective from our Spaces