Macro & Rates
Joined August 2020
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76 Photos and videos
Jun 12
Unanchored UK Inflation Expectations?
Survey-based inflation expectations are well above their historical averages.
This should be the BoE's main concern amid this energy shock and could force it to act sooner rather than later. Market is only pricing a full hike by November.
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RobertTimper retweeted
Jun 11
One of my favorite pod episodes ever! Cousin @JacobShap and I had my colleagues from BCA @ElClutch and @RobertTimper1 (the twin authors of the BCA World Cup Forecast) to talk about the Most Important Uninmportant Thing in the World!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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The 2026 World Cup is finally here!
As is BCA tradition by now, we have once again put together The Most Important Of All Unimportant Forecasts.
After correctly predicting Argentina to win in 2022, find out who we see lifting the cup this year: bcaresearch.com/reports/most…
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May 28
Can't get a recession with profit growth like this. Instead could hiring pick finally pickup again?
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May 21
A BoJ hike in June now seems all but certain.
April's meeting saw a 6/3 hold/hike vote split. Recent speeches suggest there are now enough votes on the Policy Board for a hike in June.
Both Masu's and Koeda's comments suggest they joined the hawks, making it 5 votes to hike.
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May 21
Masu was extremely clear in his May 14 speech: "I believe it is desirable to raise the policy rate at the earliest stage possible"
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May 21
While Koeda's speech from May 21 also strongly suggest a hike "the Bank needs to continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation"
Markets are assigning 80% odds to a hike but only see one more after that for this year.
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May 20
Does the UK still have an inflation problem?
After yesterday's wage growth data and today's inflation data, the underlying inflation picture at least doesn't look different from DM peers.
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May 18
That was quick. Bond market already won without even pricing any fiscal risk premium.
x.com/alexwickham/status/205…
May 18
Despite the political turmoil and headlines in the UK, the gilt market has barely reacted to the risk of more fiscal spending. Yields have risen globally due to higher oil prices. The US/UK yield differential has been stable and largely driven by relative policy expectations.
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May 18
Despite the political turmoil and headlines in the UK, the gilt market has barely reacted to the risk of more fiscal spending. Yields have risen globally due to higher oil prices. The US/UK yield differential has been stable and largely driven by relative policy expectations.
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RobertTimper retweeted
I hope all you EU rates traders are having fun.
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The effect of last week’s yen intervention is already fading, with JPY/USD at 158. The real “intervention” necessary is BoJ rate hikes. 2-Year real yields are negative again, while rising long-term inflation expectations are hurting the yen. It’s time for BoJ hikes.
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Apr 30
Oh weia!
More weak German data this morning. Both unemployment and retail sales show the energy shock is already starting to have an impact.
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Apr 29
You nailed this one! @takis2910
US #housing starts could be surprisingly💪 on 29/4. Incredibly we only have Jan data due to delays related to 🇺🇸 gvt shutdown but homebuilders reveal decent order activity ( 5% y/y imo) despite weak deliveries (-6%). Helpful for new build sales - also tardy (5/5). Contrarian 🏘️
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Apr 27
Warning Signs For The German Economy
Weekly activity indicator shows a sharp decline, IFO survey indicates a further decline in employment, consumer confidence took a nosedive to the lowest levels since 2022.
Looks a lot like 2022, but the big difference is the labor market.
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Apr 24
Economic data and policy pricing are sharply diverging between the US and euro area
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Apr 22
Financial Conditions Remain Easy In Japan
Loan growth continues to accelerate.
The latest SLOOS shows that household loan demand has picked up. Firms' future loan demand is also pointing up.
The highest nominal yields in decades are not yet weighing on lending activity.
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Apr 14
AI inflation in Spain?
For the past decades, the info & comm equipment has acted as a deflationary force, but that could change amid rising AI demand and chip prices.
It will be interesting to monitor whether strong AI demand adds to global inflation pressures.
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Jan 31
The Fed’s balance sheet is small. US debt/GDP is high.
As a share of total Treasuries outstanding, the Fed's footprint in the Treasury market is small.
Therefore, if one is unhappy with the size of the Fed’s Treasury holdings, they should aim to lower the debt/GDP ratio.
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17 Dec 2025
Is inflation in the UK back at target?
What seemed impossible just a few months ago is quickly becoming a reality. After this morning’s inflation numbers, both UK headline and core inflation are at 2% on a 3-month annualized basis.
Yet the policy rate is still at 4%...
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