Joined March 2011
- Tweets 30,886
- Following 2,703
- Followers 15,116
- Likes 14,850
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May 6
New pod with @drorpoleg is up and it's one of my favorite episodes of the year -- signal in the noisy broader dialogue about AI
jacob-shapiro.captivate.fm/e…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
NEW: Inside the 24-hrs before WH slapped export controls on Anthropic
- Last Thursday, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy raised concerns about Fable jailbreak to Trump admin
- Friday AM, Sean Cairncross, Bessent, Susie etc. held WH call to discuss
- Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat.
- When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncross, Bessent, Lutnick, Kessler, Will Scharf, Richard Walters, and Walker Barrett.
-Amodei tried to clear up what he assumed was a misunderstanding. He defended the guardrails and distinguished between universal and non-universal jailbreak
- Cairncross and Bessent were unmoved and asked Amodei to take down Fable and work with the admin to fix the vulnerabilities. (A WH official said Amazon’s findings were run past the NSA and they felt they had “proof.”)
- Amodei asked for more time and info, but he made no commitments to pull the model
- Bessent told Amodei directly at one point that he was making a “bad decision”
- By Friday evening, the Trump admin imposed its export controls.
- “Export controls were a last resort after begging them for hours to work with us,” senior WH official said.
W/ @cheyennehaslett
politico.com/news/2026/06/13…
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Quite a change of narrative
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the global energy market now may be able to absorb the Strait of Hormuz disruption until around Labor Day (early September).
He says lower Chinese demand, ongoing inventory drawdowns, and limited “dark” tanker transits through the strait, often at night with transponders off and done with U.S. military support, have bought the market time.
Wirth however suggests actual flows from Hormuz may be closer to 3 million barrels a day, well below the 7 million claimed by the Trump administration.
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"In a major change that has been sought after for years by Ukrainian soldiers and society as a whole, fixed contracts of 6-14 months will be introduced for infantry and assault personnel. Upon the completion of these contracts, individuals will be exempt from mobilization for six months.
For other combat roles, including drone operators, artillerymen, and medics, 24-month fixed contracts will be offered, also with a 6-month grace period upon completion.
Zelensky also announced reforms to the current system of transfer between units, which has long been a pain point for soldiers stuck in poorly-run brigades, and often leads to soldiers going AWOL for the purpose of transferring to a more desirable unit.
According to Fedorov, transfers within the bounds of a corps (made up of around five brigades) will be made possible through the Armiia app without the need for extra bureaucracy, while returning from AWOL into the most effective combat units will also be fast-tracked."
@francisjfarrell
kyivindependent.com/zelensky…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 12
Probably the single most important strategic takeaway from the war--and the biggest US miscalculation.
Iran's missile capabilities have proven much more resilient than the US had guessed. It was thanks to this that Iran was able to fight the US to a draw--and facilitate the current agreement which is (by and large) quite favorable to Tehran. ft.com/content/94d9c8d4-c38d…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 12
This was widely rumored during the war, but has now been publicly confirmed:
Qatar struck a deal with Iran, shutting down gas production, in exchange for an agreement that Iran would refrain from further strikes on Ras Laffan. washingtonpost.com/world/202…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 12
The UAE is releasing billions of dollars to Iran as part of a deal to reduce bilateral tensions and assist with reopening the strait.
It could be as much as $20 billion. $3 billion has already been delivered, confirming rumors from earlier this week.
The move comes after the emirates emerged as the single largest target for Iranian missiles and drones during the war.
From confrontation to accommodation. reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 11
🚨Out today in @Nature our new paper uses deep learning to map four decades of global human migration.
By building the first comprehensive dataset of global annual flows (1990-2023), we reveal that migration has nearly tripled since 2000.
🔗nature.com/articles/s41586-0…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 11
Dubai was supposed to be the Switzerland of the Gulf. @JacobShap says the US-Israeli campaign against Iran may be the nail in the coffin for that dream. What comes next?
mauldineconomics.com/the-wor…
#Dubai #UAE #Geopolitics #GlobalFinance #MiddleEast
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 11
A point I keep making about China's rise in biotech is that it is marked by making genuine innovative leaps.
They've got a mountain of human firsts, not just copy-cat 'me too' drugs.
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Jun 11
That’s good.
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Jun 11
I think about this often
This is RFK Jrs / DOGE’s real legacy
China’s beating the US in neuroscience:
“There is a very real possibility that without significant regulatory reform, if you’re a wealthy American, in 10 years, the only place you’ll be able to get your state-of-the-art cancer care is in Shanghai,” said Max Hodak, former president of Elon Musk’s Neuralink.
semafor.com/article/06/10/20…
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Jun 11
lol yeah bc they found it already and now it’s kicking their butts but ok
Jun 11
Russia ‘not looking for conflict’, says Nato’s top US commander ft.trib.al/UFeUAUm
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Jun 11
Maybe we should stop worrying so much about AI and start prioritizing RI in Ag DHS
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Jun 11
Taco THURSDAY! What a zag!!!! SUCH BRILLIANCE
Jun 11
🚨 President Donald J. Trump on cancelled scheduled strikes against Iran.
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I know that Twitter likes to criticize Jeff Currie as a perma-bull, but everyone should read this commentary published this week. Very well-done, although I probably disagree with his comments on Cushing. carlyle.com/carlyle-compass/…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 11
Thank you @JacobShap and @Geo_papic for having us! I tried to make a positive case about the future of US soccer, but the cousins crapped all over it
@POTUS, if you ever want to discuss any “hypothetical” USG investment in an AI shitco, now you know who to call and who NOT to
Jun 11
One of my favorite pod episodes ever! Cousin @JacobShap and I had my colleagues from BCA @ElClutch and @RobertTimper1 (the twin authors of the BCA World Cup Forecast) to talk about the Most Important Uninmportant Thing in the World!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Jun 11
One of my favorite pod episodes ever! Cousin @JacobShap and I had my colleagues from BCA @ElClutch and @RobertTimper1 (the twin authors of the BCA World Cup Forecast) to talk about the Most Important Uninmportant Thing in the World!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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