*** BC Conservative Leadership 2026 - Results, Transfers and Model Review ***
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Kerry-Lynne Findlay won the BC Conservative Party leadership on May 30, 2026, defeating Caroline Elliott 51% to 49% in the fourth and final round under the party's 93-riding weighted point system. The majority threshold was 4,605.5 points from a total of 9,211 points available. Findlay's winning margin was 182.02 points, with an estimated vote margin of approximately 455 to 510 votes (illustrative only, pending official per-riding data) from an estimated 25,000 to 25,500 valid ballots cast. 26,249 members successfully completed identity verification and received voting credentials. 336 ballots were disqualified.
Round 1 produced the following first-choice standings: Findlay 30.5% (2,806.42 pts), Elliott 25.8% (2,374.14 pts), Black 20.3% (1,865.82 pts), Fulmer 13.0% (1,193.27 pts), Milobar 10.5% (971.34 pts). Milobar was eliminated.
Round 2 redistributed Milobar's 971.34 points. Black received 47.6% (462.39 pts), Elliott 27.2% (264.60 pts), Findlay 16.0% (155.11 pts), and Fulmer 9.2% (89.25 pts). Ballot exhaustion was approximately zero. Standings after Round 2: Findlay 32.2% (2,961.53 pts), Elliott 28.6% (2,638.74 pts), Black 25.3% (2,328.21 pts), Fulmer 13.9% (1,282.52 pts). Fulmer was eliminated.
Round 3 redistributed Fulmer's 1,282.52 points. Findlay received 46.7% (598.25 pts), Black 34.3% (439.30 pts), and Elliott 19.1% (244.97 pts). Ballot exhaustion was approximately zero. Standings after Round 3: Findlay 38.6% (3,559.78 pts), Elliott 31.3% (2,883.71 pts), Black 30.0% (2,767.51 pts). Black was eliminated.
Round 4 redistributed Black's 2,767.51 points. Elliott received 58.9% (1,630.78 pts) and Findlay 41.1% (1,136.73 pts). Ballot exhaustion was approximately zero. Final standings: Findlay 51% (4,696.51 pts), Elliott 49% (4,514.49 pts).
Model review. A pre-vote IRV wild card model using the Milobar-eliminated-first scenario correctly identified the elimination order across all four rounds and correctly called Findlay as the winner. Round standing percentages were accurate throughout, with Elliott R2 off by 0.4 points, Black R2 off by 1.3 points, Findlay R3 off by 2.6 points, and Elliott R3 off by 1.3 points. The model's two primary departures from actual results were the Fulmer-to-Findlay transfer concentration, predicted at approximately 70% versus actual 46.7%, and ballot exhaustion, predicted at 19 to 43% across rounds versus approximately 0% actual.
The model offered two Round 4 scenarios: 4A projected an approximately 15-point Findlay win assuming Black transfers leaned toward Findlay, and 4B projected approximately a 1-point Findlay win assuming Black transfers leaned toward Elliott per the Pallas poll. The actual Black transfer split of 58.9% to Elliott and 41.1% to Findlay aligned with the 4B direction, though near-zero exhaustion across all rounds produced a final margin of 2 points rather than the modelled outcomes under either scenario.
Vote estimates are illustrative only, derived from the 25,000 to 25,500 estimated valid vote range applied proportionally to confirmed point totals. Exact vote figures require the official per-riding breakdown, which has not yet been released.
Points and percentages confirmed from official BC Conservative Party results. Vote figures illustrative pending official per-riding data release. β
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