Phoenix multifamily is moving from a market-selection story to an asset-selection story.
For the last two years, the dominant institutional view on Phoenix was straightforward: too much supply, too much lease-up competition, too much headline risk. That view was understandable, and for a period it was correct. But markets do not stay in the same phase forever. What matters now is not whether Phoenix experienced a supply shock. It did. What matters now is whether the market is still deteriorating broadly, or whether it is beginning to differentiate in ways that create investable asymmetry. The evidence increasingly points to the second. Cushman & Wakefield reported that Phoenix posted 6,261 units of net absorption in Q1 2026, the strongest quarterly performance in at least the last 26 years. That is not the statistic of a market with broken demand. It is the statistic of a market still clearing excess inventory. (Cushman & Wakefield)
The challenge, of course, is that absorption alone does not restore pricing power overnight. Kidder Mathews reported Q1 2026 vacancy at 11.8%, average asking rent at $1,535 per unit, and a 30 percent year-over-year decline in units under construction to 16,399. Those figures capture the current phase well: operations remain soft, but future competitive pressure is beginning to recede. This is exactly the kind of transition period where broad market narratives become less useful and basis discipline becomes more important. If you are underwriting Phoenix today, the question is no longer simply whether the market is overbuilt. The better question is whether your basis adequately compensates you for one more year of noisy fundamentals while positioning you for a more rational supply backdrop ahead. (Kidder Mathews)
Read more at:
roncadman.substack.com/p/pho…
Ron Cadman –
southwestuv.com
#PhoenixMultifamily #InstitutionalRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #MultifamilyInvesting #CapitalMarkets #PhoenixRealEstate